What if Austria-Hungary encouraged Italian expansion in Libya during Bosnian annexation?

raharris1973

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  1. What if Austria-Hungary, uncharacteristically, offered to support Italian expansion into Ottoman Libya in parallel with Austrian annexation of Bosnia?

    Here Austria-Hungary is trying to keep its alliance partner sweet while dealing with possible Serbian and Russian backlash. .

    How does Italy react to the proferred A-H support/encouragement?

    Does it remain passive? Does it move to occupy Libya? If so, does Italy succeed?

    Over the following decade (1908-1918) is Italian hostility toward Austria-Hungary reduced?
 
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raharris1973

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I would tend to assume that if Italy makes a move to claim Libya in 1908-1909, it will get the territory, one way or the other, either through outright conquest or a de facto protectorate like British Egypt and Cyprus.

A key question for the fate of the Ottomans in this case would be if the Balkan states are in any position to capitalize on Italo-Ottoman fighting as early as 1909-1910 and have a decent chance of finishing off Turkey-in-Europe.
 

raharris1973

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I have a feeling that the earlier phases could be easier if this is all done by negotiated agreement and not war.

But the attempt to do large colonization would escalate later phase guerrilla warfare.
 
Why would Italy need Austrian support to take Libya? Italy already had deals with France and Britain. How does Austrian support help? Only the Ottomans resist and Italy can handle them

Austrian needs to offer Italy something of value
 
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