What if Austria-Hungary encouraged Italian expansion in Albania during Bosnian annexation?

raharris1973

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What if Austria-Hungary, uncharacteristically, offered to support Italian expansion into Albania in parallel with Austrian annexation of Bosnia?

Here Austria-Hungary is trying to keep its alliance partner sweet while dealing with possible Serbian and Russian backlash. Italy getting influence on the other side of the Adriatic in Albania is perhaps not ideal, but perhaps it keeps Italy busy and sets a second power besides Austria-Hungary against Serbia.

How does Italy react to the proferred A-H support/encouragement?

Does it remain passive? Does it move to occupy Albania? If so, does Italy succeed?

Over the following decade (1908-1918) is Italian hostility toward Austria-Hungary reduced?
Is Serbian (and probably Greek) hostility against Italy?
 
I think this would probably be a smart move by A-H. Without an Alps front it can focus solely on the Balkans. With Italy on its side.
 
What if Austria-Hungary, uncharacteristically, offered to support Italian expansion into Albania in parallel with Austrian annexation of Bosnia?

Here Austria-Hungary is trying to keep its alliance partner sweet while dealing with possible Serbian and Russian backlash. Italy getting influence on the other side of the Adriatic in Albania is perhaps not ideal, but perhaps it keeps Italy busy and sets a second power besides Austria-Hungary against Serbia.

How does Italy react to the proferred A-H support/encouragement?

Does it remain passive? Does it move to occupy Albania? If so, does Italy succeed?

Over the following decade (1908-1918) is Italian hostility toward Austria-Hungary reduced?
Is Serbian (and probably Greek) hostility against Italy?
Well They would probably have warmer relations, but the Dispute over Tirol would restrict an Italian-AH alliance, unless The two Empires come to an agreement over the land.
 
Difficult to pull off. Austria's annexation of Bosnia isn't that big of a deal and she could have quietly gotten it with some better manners- support for Bulgaria's unilateral declaration of independence and paying off the Turks- which she did in the end anyway. Backing Russia at the straits and letting the British try and block it would have been a good way of driving those two apart

Austria needs to court Italy but can't alienate the Turks which is what makes Balkan diplomacy so chaotic. If you get better relations with one, you will alienate someone else. Better relations with Bulgaria means worse with Romania

People exaggerate Serbian interest in Albania. It was there but its not the highest of priorities. Everyone in the Balkans wants the entire peninsula eventually.

Remember that the King of Montenegro is the King of Italy's father in law.

Pressing the Turks could lead to a Russo-Ottoman alignment which is almost as bad as losing Italy

In 1908, Albania is firmly Ottoman territory but in 1914, it is not. Offering chunks of Albania during the July crisis might be considered worthwhile but it doesn't eliminate Italian-Austrian tensions

In the end, Austria overplayed its hand. It alienated Italy by not buying them off with what they really wanted- the Italian lands and performed poorly on the front which made them tempting targets

The Italians had won their independence from the Hapsburgs and revolutionary propaganda ran deep in the country. The final liberation of the remaining lands would never be far from Italy's shopping list

What Austria really needs is the return of Crispi and an anti-French orientation of Italian foreign policy. That's going to be hard after the Mediterranean accords The only safe course for Austria is to let the war break out as a Franco-Italian affair but that's not likely. A Franco-German quarral might bring Italy on board
 
If Italy has Albania , It would control the entrance to the Adriatic sea which is unacceptable to Austria-Hungary but Libya would be a better and more likely choice for Austria to offer to Italy
 
Basically, Italy joins the central powers later on. This cements the Ottoman's place as either in the entente or a neutral country, so they'll probably end up dying either way. This could also extend Austria-Hungary's lifespan by a few years.
 
Basically, Italy joins the central powers later on. This cements the Ottoman's place as either in the entente or a neutral country, so they'll probably end up dying either way. This could also extend Austria-Hungary's lifespan by a few years.
Having the Ottomans on the Entente's side means Russia doesn't get starved out and now only has one direction to project all of its military might. A-H then has to deal with their entire southern border and the whole of the Balkans lie in Entente aligned control, meaning Bulgaria is forced to stay out and Hungary turns into a massive salient about to be munched on by the Russo-Balkan-Ottoman forces (god that feels wrong to write out). Austria-Hungary does not have a pleasant time in that scenario.
 
Wasn't A-H against Italian hegemony in Albania because it would grant them control of the Adriatic? Going to take a lot of trust to surrender that.
 
What Austria really needs is the return of Crispi and an anti-French orientation of Italian foreign policy. That's going to be hard after the Mediterranean accords The only safe course for Austria is to let the war break out as a Franco-Italian affair but that's not likely. A Franco-German quarral might bring Italy on board

No, even if a Crispi clone will return at the helm of the goverment the alliance with A-H it's already doomed as the italian goverment had discovered that's basically a wasted effort; even with the most rabid pro-CP goverment in charge Rome obtained basically nothing from A-H except some diplomatic humiliation, the continuous effort to block the spreading of italian influence in the balkans or in the Ottoman Empire, no help regarding France when some problem happened. In simple words, every now and then some bone need to be throwed if you want that even the most supportive of the politicians will continue to see the alliance as something worth.

Regarding Albania, well OTL Germany tried to convince Italy to accept it as compensation, maybe with a deal like the Bosnian one or as for something in the future for when the situation will allow it; but between Wien being absolutely contrary this deal and Rome being pubblically humiliated and being unable to accept anything else than Trent.
If somewhat the deal is proposed before the annoucement of the annexation and Germany convince (unlikely) A-H to go with it, Italy will accept it and consider itself satisfied for the occasion.

This not only can keep the alliance between Italy and A-H a little more solid but can buttefly away the war in Libya as Giolitti will feel a lot less compelled to obtain the place military as (among other thing) a show of force
 
Regarding Albania, well OTL Germany tried to convince Italy to accept it as compensation, maybe with a deal like the Bosnian one or as for something in the future for when the situation will allow it; but between Wien being absolutely contrary this deal and Rome being pubblically humiliated and being unable to accept anything else than Trent.
If somewhat the deal is proposed before the annoucement of the annexation and Germany convince (unlikely) A-H to go with it, Italy will accept it and consider itself satisfied for the occasion.
You are quite spot on about the relations (or better the lack of them) between Austria and Italy.
There is also another consideration however: when the administration of B-H was awarded to A-H in 1878 there was the fig leaf of the ethnic/religious strife in the region, plus the additional bonus that Croats were one of the ethnic groups in B-H and Croatia was one of the lands under the crown of St. Stephen.
Nothing of these justifications would apply to Albania: it's one of the few regions in the Balkans with a clear Muslim majority, there is no raging ethnic strife and none of the ethnic groups in Albania can be linked to Italy.
The situation would be completely different after the 1st Balkan war, obviously, when Albania would become the focus for the greed of all of their neighbours but in 1907 it is difficult to find any explanation other than "Would you like to annex a small country?"
 

raharris1973

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Pressing the Turks could lead to a Russo-Ottoman alignment which is almost as bad as losing Italy

This cements the Ottoman's place as either in the entente or a neutral country,

Having the Ottomans on the Entente's side

@Aprhrodite, @YTrojan, @BellaGerant - I am not so certain that Italian aggression agains the Ottomans in Italy makes the Ottomans much more anti-CP and likely to join the Entente.

Certainly it becomes more likely for the Ottomans to be Entente aligned if their last two territorial losses prior to WWI are just Bosnia and Albania to Austria and Italy respectively.

That circumstance could single out Italy and Austria as Turkey's top enemies.

On the other hand, it is likely the Ottomans will suffer further territorial losses in the meantime before WWI kicks off. The more Entente associated Balkan states like Bulgaria, Greece and Serbia will likely be inspired by Italian operations against Albania.

This means that the Ottomans can become equally offended by Entente foreign policies and it makes the Italians and Austrians a less immediate threat, possibly causing the Ottomans to lean pro-CP as in OTL.
 
In 1908, A Russo-Ottoman alignment is possible and Austria would be well to consider it. Giving away Ottoman territory in 1907 is quite a different thing than giving away Albanian territory in 1914. Even Ottoman neutrality and the opening of the straits would have a huge effect on the war. Italy is also moving away from its anti-French position as France and Britain reconcile and the Mediterannean is settled.

while Italy can be tempted with the North African coast, it would be a long shot. Italian expansionism is different than Austria's taking Bosnia- which really wasn't that big of a change. the most the Austrians are likely to be able to buy is Italian neutrality unless either France is beaten or Britain neutral. Then Italian participation doesn't really matter anyway.

Victory on the battlefield would help far more than giving Italy Albania

the Ottomans aren't likely to lose much territory without the Italian war of 1911. Without it, the Ottomans easily beat the Balkan league.

Serbia is pro Russian but Greece and Bulgaria are opportunists. Greece won't fight the entente because of the vulnerability to naval attack but Bulgaria ultimately join the CP. Getting Bulgaria is another nail that drives Romania away

Short of a crushing opening round, in which case it won't matter, getting the Balkan states to line up on the same side isn't happening
 
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