What if Austria-Hungary committed to a separate peace in WWI before summer 1918?

[raharris1973]

What if Austria-Hungary committed to a separate peace with the Entente at any point in WWI before summer 1918?

I imagine the Germans will be pissed off.

The Germans of WWII had to deal with multiple defecting Axis powers, notably Italy, Romania, Hungary, and Slovakia*.
In Italy, they punitively took over 50% of the defecting Italians' territory and a lot of their forces, the Romanians largely got away and surfed the Soviet wave, and the Germans punished and completely occupied the Hungarians and Slovaks for a period of time before the Soviets could arrive.

Now WWI Germans were not Nazis. But they wouldn't like being betrayed either. There would be some differences in their mobility and disposition and reserves too.

But what could the Germans have done to unilaterally try to stop any Austro-Hungarian defection, and what would the outcome once the Austro-Hungarians commit to quitting the war and the Germans realize the Austro-Hungarians have committed to this?


*They also had to deal with Finland and Bulgaria, but were in less of a position to respond, so I'll leave those aside

 

[Wendell]

They cannot afford to do this.

 

[Help]

The only reason Germany is fighting in the war is due to their support for AH. This is more of a betrayal, as here the Austrians dragged in Germany, if anything. Doubly so if Austria somehow gets a lenient peace. I see Germany wanting to occupy but not being able to do so. A stab in the back myth would form with Austria instead of Jews, and maybe Austrians would not be seen as Germans anymore. Italy and Germany might not fight physically anymore, and I think Germany would acquiesce to OTL terms, or possibly get more depending on how strong at the front they are.

 

[Wendell]

The only reason Germany is fighting in the war is due to their support for AH. This is more of a betrayal, as here the Austrians dragged in Germany, if anything. Doubly so if Austria somehow gets a lenient peace. I see Germany wanting to occupy but not being able to do so. A stab in the back myth would form with Austria instead of Jews, and maybe Austrians would not be seen as Germans anymore. Italy and Germany might not fight physically anymore, and I think Germany would acquiesce to OTL terms, or possibly get more depending on how strong at the front they are.

I agreed with the first half of this, and then you lost me. Austria Hungary is done for without German patronage, which goes away for good if Austria signs a separate peace. Germany would probably quit the war in short order and get away with slightly better terms, but the moment it can have its revenge on Austria, it will, and the Italians, Serbs, and even the Romanians and/or Poles will get in on it too.

 

[Saci]

Austria-Hungary will only negotiate if the terms are very, very generous, which is very unlikely. If the Entente offers them, for some reason, generous terms, however, and do the same to Germany as they did IOTL it would only show that WW1 and it's aftermath was a ploy by the Entente to cut Germany down to size. The interwar years will be even more radicalized, especially if Germany is "blamed" for the war and is forced the expenses of her enemies while Austria-Hungary is just sitting there happy and quietly. Consequentially, the legitimacy of the post war settlement will be even more questioned than it was IOTL.

 

[Help]

I agreed with the first half of this, and then you lost me. Austria Hungary is done for without German patronage, which goes away for good if Austria signs a separate peace. Germany would probably quit the war in short order and get away with slightly better terms, but the moment it can have its revenge on Austria, it will, and the Italians, Serbs, and even the Romanians and/or Poles will get in on it too.

Austria-Hungary will only negotiate if the terms are very, very generous, which is very unlikely. If the Entente offers them, for some reason, generous terms, however, and do the same to Germany as they did IOTL it would only show that WW1 and it's aftermath was a ploy by the Entente to cut Germany down to size. The interwar years will be even more radicalized, especially if Germany is "blamed" for the war and is forced the expenses of her enemies while Austria-Hungary is just sitting there happy and quietly. Consequentially, the legitimacy of the post war settlement will be even more questioned than it was IOTL.

You two both seem correct. I assume though, that at first Germany would be limited in what it can do due to Entente wariness of Germany expansion.
For Wendell, why is the latter have of my previous post wrong?

 

[Imperial Advocate]

Germany would just break the Austro-Hungarian Empire up in an invasion. I can see Austria under military administration for future annexation, Bohemia under a protectorate, Hungary independent under a pro-German regime, a united Croatia consisting of Croatia and Bosnia, and maybe the Italians snag Trieste and Dalmatia while they’re at it. With the Italians gaining the land they wanted, expect conflict to cease between Italy and Germany.

This also would have major implications in the future. Germany and friends are still defeated but Central Europe is much different. I expect Trianon for Hungary, seeing them as German collaborators, maybe a strengthened Austria with Slovakia and the Sudentland (OTL German-Austria borders), and with Croatia independent, I can see them like ceding Bosnia to Serbia but keeping independence.

 

[marathag]

I agreed with the first half of this, and then you lost me. Austria Hungary is done for without German patronage, which goes away for good if Austria signs a separate peace. Germany would probably quit the war in short order and get away with slightly better terms, but the moment it can have its revenge on Austria, it will, and the Italians, Serbs, and even the Romanians and/or Poles will get in on it too.

But if Britain and France are willing to toss Italy under the bus to get the Austrians to break from Germany in late 1917 after the Italians got curbstomped and Russians were out, I'd think they might go for it, if A-H would offer a Plebiscite for local areas and guarantee Independence of a currently occupied Serbia.

Germany quitting would be fine, but I see the Blockade against Germany continuing until you get a similar result to Versailles, and revoking Brest-Litovsk if the Germans haven't caved before that's even hammered out with the new Soviet controllers.

The Poles liked how they were treated under A-H than they were under the Germans or Russians, so no real desire for revenge there.

and for Revenge, still plenty of Austrians who recall how the Germans screwed them over with the Peace of Prague in 1866

 

[Help]

But if Britain and France are willing to toss Italy under the bus to get the Austrians to break from Germany in late 1917 after the Italians got curbstomped and Russians were out, I'd think they might go for it, if A-H would offer a Plebiscite for local areas and guarantee Independence of a currently occupied Serbia.

Germany quitting would be fine, but I see the Blockade against Germany continuing until you get a similar result to Versailles, and revoking Brest-Litovsk if the Germans haven't caved before that's even hammered out with the new Soviet controllers.

The Poles liked how they were treated under A-H than they were under the Germans or Russians, so no real desire for revenge there.

and for Revenge, still plenty of Austrians who recall how the Germans screwed them over with the Peace of Prague in 1866

That peace was very lenient, so I disagree about any revenge. Not to mention that Germany back Austria to the hilt in this much more devastating war. Calling this revenge doesn't really make sense.

 

[cjc]

But if Britain and France are willing to toss Italy under the bus to get the Austrians to break from Germany in late 1917 after the Italians got curbstomped and Russians were out, I'd think they might go for it, if A-H would offer a Plebiscite for local areas and guarantee Independence of a currently occupied Serbia.

Germany quitting would be fine, but I see the Blockade against Germany continuing until you get a similar result to Versailles, and revoking Brest-Litovsk if the Germans haven't caved before that's even hammered out with the new Soviet controllers.

The Poles liked how they were treated under A-H than they were under the Germans or Russians, so no real desire for revenge there.

and for Revenge, still plenty of Austrians who recall how the Germans screwed them over with the Peace of Prague in 1866

It dosnt seem like the allies ever considered terms that would have been acceptable to the Austrians even during the bad days of early 1918, mainly because they dint have to whith the USA on there side.

 

[lukedalton]

The problem of a separate peace for A-H it's that Wien had a similar thought pattern of WWII Japan regarding peace, basically a status quo ante with some minor concession regarding the entente and basically being very generous with things not belonging to him.
Frankly the basic premise for a succesfull separate peace is the realization that A-H need to give up something othewise she is doomed regardless the outcome of the war (fact that the enstablishment understand perfectly but was still afraid to give any concession )

 

[Mikestone8]

Trouble is that by end 1916 if not earlier A/H already *is* almost occupied by Germany

According to Norman Stone (The Eastern Front 1914-17) by late 1916 some two-fifths of A/H's NCOs and junior officers were actually *Germans* seconded to her by Big Brother in Berlin. That's an enormous Fifth Column.

 

[Wendell]

You two both seem correct. I assume though, that at first Germany would be limited in what it can do due to Entente wariness of Germany expansion.
For Wendell, why is the latter have of my previous post wrong?

Austria would still be seen as German. If anything, I don't see any effect one way or the other on antisemitism, and Germany and Italy will do more than not fight each other, but become natural allies even more so than OTL.

 

[Wendell]

But if Britain and France are willing to toss Italy under the bus to get the Austrians to break from Germany in late 1917 after the Italians got curbstomped and Russians were out, I'd think they might go for it, if A-H would offer a Plebiscite for local areas and guarantee Independence of a currently occupied Serbia.

Germany quitting would be fine, but I see the Blockade against Germany continuing until you get a similar result to Versailles, and revoking Brest-Litovsk if the Germans haven't caved before that's even hammered out with the new Soviet controllers.

The Poles liked how they were treated under A-H than they were under the Germans or Russians, so no real desire for revenge there.

and for Revenge, still plenty of Austrians who recall how the Germans screwed them over with the Peace of Prague in 1866

They want the war over and the Bolsheviks defeated. Blockading a Germany that's already offered huge concessions with loss of A-L and its colonies is likelier to sink governments in Paris and London, and be viewed later as a war crime than it is anything else.

 

[Help]

Austria would still be seen as German. If anything, I don't see any effect one way or the other on antisemitism, and Germany and Italy will do more than not fight each other, but become natural allies even more so than OTL.

That's true, I suppose. There would have to be a deep sense of betrayal though. Would that be just at the Habsburg in power, or something? I meant more that the Stab in the Back myth would not be pointed at Jews, which would probably lessen anti-semitism a bit. About Italy, you seem correct.

 

[Wendell]

That's true, I suppose. There would have to be a deep sense of betrayal though. Would that be just at the Habsburg in power, or something? I meant more that the Stab in the Back myth would not be pointed at Jews, which would probably lessen anti-semitism a bit. About Italy, you seem correct.

Oh, Germany will definitely feel betrayed. Austria would be signing its own death warrant in a separate pace, especially if Versailles-like terms are still imposed on Germany.