The Bronze Age Collapse is generally considered the greatest catastrophic event of the ancient world, greater than the Fall of Rome, greater than any war or plague. The international diplomatic system that connected Egypt, the Hittites, Mycenaean Greece, Crete, Ugarit, the Mitanni, Babylon, and Elam fell into shambles, and every one of the aforementioned polities/cultures collapsed into chaos. Egypt held off longer than most, but still fell apart into an Inter-Dynastic Period. The only nation-state to survive the Bronze Age Collapse was the Middle Assyrian Kingdom. Retreating to their natural borders, Assyria was able to maintain a stable monarchy and field the most powerful army of its day (largely made possible by its political stability). When the outlying regions began to settle, the mass migrations halted, and populations began to rebound, the Assyrians took advantage of their strength and spread like wild-fire, building the Neo-Assyrian Empire which spread from Egypt to Elam, Judah to Armenia.
So, what would happen if Assyria did not survive the Collapse?
I suppose this would occur if the Assyrian king didn't have the wisdom to retreat to their homeland and stretched out their armies trying to maintain their vast territories. Without a concentrated force, the Assyrians fall to marauding migrants like the Phrygians, proto-Armenians, Aramaeans, or Gutians pressured west from migrating Iranian tribes.
How does this affect the coming centuries? Who will fill the vacuum of power in the coming Iron Age? How does this affect the survival of other groups who the Assyrians would come to destroy, displace, or defeat?
So, what would happen if Assyria did not survive the Collapse?
I suppose this would occur if the Assyrian king didn't have the wisdom to retreat to their homeland and stretched out their armies trying to maintain their vast territories. Without a concentrated force, the Assyrians fall to marauding migrants like the Phrygians, proto-Armenians, Aramaeans, or Gutians pressured west from migrating Iranian tribes.
How does this affect the coming centuries? Who will fill the vacuum of power in the coming Iron Age? How does this affect the survival of other groups who the Assyrians would come to destroy, displace, or defeat?