What If Argentinas' Air Opposition was Stronger?

BlondieBC

Banned
Is it even possible to expel a NATO member?

Technically, maybe not.

In practice yes. The USA would just leave if the UK did not. The diplomatic issues related to thousands of Brazilians dying in a surprise nuclear strike would mean the USA must chose between Latin America and the UK. Everyone in an airplane in Southern Brazil when the 6 bombs goes off dies. Everyone in the hospital for serious illness dies. Brazil is without power for months in areas. It would be an easy choice. Even back then, we have over 10 million recent Mexicans immigrants in the USA.

Also things like Germany peace crowd would be going crazy. The Soviets would have a field day diplomatically. India would bring in operational nuclear weapons that year. Brazil would immediately restart its nuclear weapons program, and something like Brazil seeking an alliance with the soviets becomes likely.

The USA would have to cut its losses.
 
Except for the whole Argentine bomb thing.

It was no accident that the bombs didn`t explode, the Arg Air Force knew that they had to fly ultra low to stay under the Sea Dart envelope and when that low bomb fusing becomes an almost insoluable problem. The choice is between instand fusing where the bombing plane gets hit by it`s own shrapnel, or a long delay which blows up any following waves of planes. Good air forces can solve this problem, but these are the sorts of airforces are the ones squeezing 1300 sorties from a handful of planes not 500 from almost 100 planes. (It appears only the Arg Navy FAA had retarded bombs, or at least only they used them)

But anyway, the RN offered up its ships as targets to the AAF, the RN having some 50 frigates and 15 destroyers at the time. While it`s easy to say that the RN lost some frigates, and others were damaged by unexploded bombs nobody seems to notice that after 4 days of intensive fighting the AAF did very little for some time.
 
The last thing the US would want would be the withdrawal or large amounts of British combat power to be withdrawn from Europe in order to create a 2nd taskforce.
If the first task-force got handled very roughly -- losing both of the carriers, for example -- then Britain wouldn't have had enough ships left for a second attempt.
 
If the first task-force got handled very roughly -- losing both of the carriers, for example -- then Britain wouldn't have had enough ships left for a second attempt.


Wrong. And the problem is, the Carriers only have to come into range of Argentine Airforces at night, even if they are based at Stanley, do they have the Assets to localise the carriers?

As to if they lost both carriers. Bulwark was available for reactivation (half sister to Hermes) and Illustrious was just about ready.

Hold off to till the end of the year and much larger numbers of T22's, Sea Wolf Leanders and T42's are available.

Plus I suppose they could always send Tiger and Blake south....
 
If the first task-force got handled very roughly -- losing both of the carriers, for example -- then Britain wouldn't have had enough ships left for a second attempt.

There was talk at the time of the US 'lending' the RN a carrier, including all required crew and aircraft. Anyway, it probably wouldn't come to that. As I (and others) pointed out, if the 1st taskforce was lost, the US would force Argentina to withdraw.
 
There was talk at the time of the US 'lending' the RN a carrier, including all required crew and aircraft. Anyway, it probably wouldn't come to that. As I (and others) pointed out, if the 1st taskforce was lost, the US would force Argentina to withdraw.
Given the way the US behaved diplomatically right up to the onset of hostilities, there's little to suggest this would have been the case.

Most likely, if Britain couldn't retake the islands before the onset of the south Atlantic winter (which was actually very close to happening), then the RN would have limped home and a negotiated peace would have been most likely, with Argentina keeping "Las Malvinas" and the Falklanders being repatriated to Blighty less a lot of their belongings but with a few Pesos in their pockets.
 
Wrong. And the problem is, the Carriers only have to come into range of Argentine Airforces at night, even if they are based at Stanley, do they have the Assets to localise the carriers?

As to if they lost both carriers. Bulwark was available for reactivation (half sister to Hermes) and Illustrious was just about ready.

Hold off to till the end of the year and much larger numbers of T22's, Sea Wolf Leanders and T42's are available.

Plus I suppose they could always send Tiger and Blake south....

When Bulwarkwas examined IOTL it was found to be in a very bad condition, so was not used.

Link - http://www.fleetairarmarchive.net/Ships/Bulwark.html

Quoting from the above link - "Plans were made for reactivation during 1982 due to the Falklands war but were later abandoned, when surveyed to be in too poor a state of repair to be recommissioned. Scrapped at Cairn Ryan from 17 April 1984."
 
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