What if Argentina, Chile and Uruguay were one nation? (Plus AHC on formation)

No idea about how it could form and that would be very important.

I can say that if nothing else the new country would be much more powerful (and maybe end up in a war with Brasil somewhere down the line). Argentina and Chile's natural resources combined would already make them much stronger. If the divergence happens early enough and we avoid the civil wars that plagued those countries as a way to unify them then maybe European immigration will start early on. The mining heavy area of Chile combined with the food producing territories of the Pampas may cause an industrialization that none of the OTL countries enjoyed. Kinda similar to the US.
 
Argentina and Uruguay? Sure.

Chile is harder. Chile was broken off of the Viceroyalty of Peru in 1541, whereas Argentina remained a part of it until it was broken off (along with what is now Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia, though not as one unit) in 1776.

Now, they did fight independence wars at the same time, and even a somewhat together, but if I'm not mistaken, the resulting governments were very different, with Argentina being quite liberal whereas Chile became a military dictatorship. That said, there was plenty of liberal sentiment, and it's not inconceivable that Argentina would follow up their victory over Spain with a fun campaign over the second most rugged mountain range in the world. Or Argentina could intervene a few years later when Chile underwent civil war to depose O'Higgins. Of course, a liberal government with a long history of as separate identity might not want to join Argentina, especially if it had existed as an independent republic for a while.
 
One word: Federalism

Ift Argentina, Chile and Uruguay agreed on a federal system giving local elites a say in their provinces and at national level it would work, otherwise forget it. Liberals were deeply divided on this issue in Argentina it led to a Civil War.

Historically the big problem is the Civil War in Argentina ((1814–1861) between the provinces and Buenos Aires that led to having a national government very late. Chile (after 1830 when conservatives won) and Uruguay (After it gained its independence in 1828) could join if Argentina was federal and gave wide powers to Chile and Uruguay as provinces. And the status or federalization of Buenos Aires is politically and military solved.

Thus I see it as Federation of
  1. Uruguay
  2. Chile
  3. Santa Fe
  4. Buenos Aires (As a province detached from the City of Buenos Aires)
  5. Entre Ríos
  6. Corrientes
  7. Tucumán
  8. Salta
  9. Jujuy
  10. Santiago del Estero
  11. Catamarca
  12. Córdoba
  13. La Rioja
  14. San Juan
  15. San Luis
  16. Mendoza.
 
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Geopolitics will be murkier because Brazil is less likely to become hegemonic.

I don't think Rio and La Paz are going to like this one bit.

I suspect we will see Brazil and Paraguay as constant allies, perhaps Bolivia or Peru coming along.
 
Argentina and Uruguay? Sure.

Chile is harder. Chile was broken off of the Viceroyalty of Peru in 1541, whereas Argentina remained a part of it until it was broken off (along with what is now Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia, though not as one unit) in 1776.

Now, they did fight independence wars at the same time, and even a somewhat together, but if I'm not mistaken, the resulting governments were very different, with Argentina being quite liberal whereas Chile became a military dictatorship. That said, there was plenty of liberal sentiment, and it's not inconceivable that Argentina would follow up their victory over Spain with a fun campaign over the second most rugged mountain range in the world. Or Argentina could intervene a few years later when Chile underwent civil war to depose O'Higgins. Of course, a liberal government with a long history of as separate identity might not want to join Argentina, especially if it had existed as an independent republic for a while.
You have the POD right in your second sentence. Let's say Chile isn't broken off the Viceroyalty of Peru. The Viceroyalty of the River Plate is created in schedule and Chile goes to the River Plate. It will still handle itself rather autonomous from Buenos Aires due the difficulties in communications, but for all intent and purposes, it's the same Viceroyalty.
The independence wars go more or less like in OTL. The crossing of the Andes happens, and it's an independent Argentina recovering lost provinces rather than an alliance between Argentines and Chilean exiles. That settles Argentina+Chile prior to 1820 - the difficult part lies in keeping Uruguay in as well. If the Liga Federal manages to get the upper hand against Buenos Aires (bonus points if Portugal doesn't invade Uruguay), that's doable. For extra bonus points, this greater United Provinces of the River Plate wouldn't wash its hands from the naval invasion of Peru like in OTL, so it may launch a land offensive into Upper Peru (modern Bolivia) together with San Martin's attack by the sea, so the UPRP also keep modern Bolivia.

The dangers are Portuguese/Brazilian invasions of Uruguay, a potential Chilean break away and the civil wars, but ITTL the unitarian side will be very weakened, as it no longer controls the only port in the country, so a federal nation is possible.
If all this happens, I can see the resulting country trying to invade Paraguay to unite all the American territories of the old Viceroyalty (and Brazil would support Paraguay in this scenario). Paraguay has iron mines, which are absent/too poor/too badly located in the rest of the eastern part of this ATL UPRP
 
You have the POD right in your second sentence. Let's say Chile isn't broken off the Viceroyalty of Peru. The Viceroyalty of the River Plate is created in schedule and Chile goes to the River Plate. It will still handle itself rather autonomous from Buenos Aires due the difficulties in communications, but for all intent and purposes, it's the same Viceroyalty.
The independence wars go more or less like in OTL. The crossing of the Andes happens, and it's an independent Argentina recovering lost provinces rather than an alliance between Argentines and Chilean exiles. That settles Argentina+Chile prior to 1820 - the difficult part lies in keeping Uruguay in as well. If the Liga Federal manages to get the upper hand against Buenos Aires (bonus points if Portugal doesn't invade Uruguay), that's doable. For extra bonus points, this greater United Provinces of the River Plate wouldn't wash its hands from the naval invasion of Peru like in OTL, so it may launch a land offensive into Upper Peru (modern Bolivia) together with San Martin's attack by the sea, so the UPRP also keep modern Bolivia.

The dangers are Portuguese/Brazilian invasions of Uruguay, a potential Chilean break away and the civil wars, but ITTL the unitarian side will be very weakened, as it no longer controls the only port in the country, so a federal nation is possible.
If all this happens, I can see the resulting country trying to invade Paraguay to unite all the American territories of the old Viceroyalty (and Brazil would support Paraguay in this scenario). Paraguay has iron mines, which are absent/too poor/too badly located in the rest of the eastern part of this ATL UPRP


Would Peru try to takeover Bolivia ITTL? For mineral resources.
 
Would Peru try to takeover Bolivia ITTL? For mineral resources.
Assuming Bolivia goes to the United Provinces instead of becoming independent as in OTL, I guess it depends on how united this ATL United Provinces are and how powerful their Pacific fleet is. This ATL United Provinces, if it isn't fighting itself, would be a regional power by default.
 
Chile and Argentina/Uruguay are geographically segregated from one another and quite removed from each other's history compared to say, Chile and Peru/Bolivia. No common history of shared governance, no nothing and as another poster offered, you'd have to go back to the shuffling of the Viceroyalties, though even then it makes little sense and you'd need a proper impetus to transfer Chile to Argentine rule since it's way, way easier to govern Chile from the Peruvian coast than it is Buenos Aires and unlike Bolivia there's no economic reasoning to shift Chile to rule from Buenos Aires either. If you want reasoning, I'd suggest a super successful Tupac Amaru II that results in a hostile breakaway Quechua state in most of Peru/Bolivia with British backing. Chile'd be incredibly vulnerable and would be loosely placed under the Viceroyalty of La Plata as it's not big or important enough to merit its own Viceroyalty and would also be in a geographically difficult position.
 
Could a powerful and expansionistic Peru (which includes Bolivia) be enough to drive all these powers together in a confederation?
 
Could a powerful and expansionistic Peru (which includes Bolivia) be enough to drive all these powers together in a confederation?
It didn't when it was still part of the Spanish Empire and all those powers were at war with it. I think it's a matter of distance and interests: whatever Peru can do in northern Chile or Bolivia, its armies wouldn't reach Buenos Aires or Uruguay anyway
 
I don't see why adding Chile would negatively impact relations with Brazil. It adds Argentine power in the Pacific, and doesn't add any friction on the Brazilian border. Chilean political factions may act as a counter to Argentine disputes with Brazil not wanting the country to get involved in something that doesn't concern them. Conversely, it may draw Argentine attention west and up the pacific coast.
 
I don't see why adding Chile would negatively impact relations with Brazil. It adds Argentine power in the Pacific, and doesn't add any friction on the Brazilian border. Chilean political factions may act as a counter to Argentine disputes with Brazil not wanting the country to get involved in something that doesn't concern them. Conversely, it may draw Argentine attention west and up the pacific coast.
Because historically Argentina, Chile and Brazil were competitors for the position of South America's dominating power. A very careful balance that was maintained over time.
Now if there is only Brazil and another power more or less as big and with no real competition well, things could get worst.

Though it probably won't, as neither Brazil nor Argentina wanted a conflict for most of their history, with the war for Uruguay being the exception to the rule.
 
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Because historically ArgebArge, Chile and Brazil were competitors for the position of South America's dominating power. A very careful balance that was maintained over time.
Now if there is only Brazil and another power more or less as big and with no real competition well, things could get worst.

Only in the minds of chileans and argentineans. There was only one possible dominating power in South America, and that was Brazil. A nation encencompassing the entire south cone would still be, in today's numbers, 140 million people and 1 trillion USD GDP short in comparison to Brazil.
 
Only in the minds of chileans and argentineans. There was only one possible dominating power in South America, and that was Brazil. A nation encencompassing the entire south cone would still be, in today's numbers, 140 million people and 1 trillion USD GDP short in comparison to Brazil.
Why? Brazil didn't start with a 140 million lead you know? The country got to that level through immigration and a period of stability while Argentina was in the middle of 30 years of civil war and Chile wasn't much better.

Also, population? Please, while important it isn't the be end of all. If not then a shitty island with 20'ish million people (at the time) wouldn't have owned half the planet nor would nations that can be fitted inside Brazil and leave enough space for one or two other medium sized countries be the powerhouses that managed the other half of the planet.

Brazil's ascendance is something rather new and was never a sure thing, saying anything else is basically the same as the American exceptionalism of "the USA had the divine mandate of becoming Hegemon".
Also, by that same logic Russia should be the planetary hegemon, yet...

What's more, until around the mid 20 century both Argentina and Chile could fight a war with Brazil and, while not conquer it (though neither could Brazil do the same to either) they could certainly fight it to a standstill or at least force favourable peace terms.
 
there has to be a reason to fight. That reason revolves around Uruguay, which both Spain and Portugal claimed. IF this TTL has settled the matter in favor of Spain, then there's not really much for the Spanish descendants and the Portuguese descendants to squabble about. They're not going to fight just because they're both big. OTL there were lots of opportunity for them to go to war, yet they never really did (the cisplantine war was more a war of Uruguayan independence than a war between B and A). Chile isn't adding that much power that Argentina decides to go all Napoleon on South America.

Brazil is huge, but it is also geographically isolated, so any power they have has limited projection ability...until modern transportation shrinks the world.
 
Only in the minds of chileans and argentineans. There was only one possible dominating power in South America, and that was Brazil. A nation encencompassing the entire south cone would still be, in today's numbers, 140 million people and 1 trillion USD GDP short in comparison to Brazil.
No? Even Today being that the Case Brazilian Diplomátic is considered second rate, their Militar muscle a Joke and their economic muscle, Even being big, Is not specially strong as is too dependant of Foreigner powers to he exercised.
Literally there is more weigth in the Diplomatic and military descicions Chile make than The Brazilian ones, if You considere I am in The wrong please explain why
 
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