Exactly what it says on the tin. If Argentina annexed Uruguay, which both nations were part of Rio de la Plata and shared the same culture, what are the possible consequences of this scenario. Could something parallel to the American annexation of Texas, but instead fighting against Mexico, they wage war against Brazil over an Uruguay River border dispute?
What if Argentina annexed Uruguay?
- Thread starter Ameroboto
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(Don't know if you are familiar with the videogame, but it reminds me of Victoria II. The first thing I do with Argentina is annex Uruguay, no matter how implausible it is)
Uruguay remaining a part of what would later become Argentina IS plausible. If the original governing juntas (pick any one) of Buenos Aires weren't fucking douches, and decided to include the Uruguayan patriots from the start and help them against Brazil, and include the rest of the other provinces. Or you can make the Liga Federal unite the nation instead of the Congress of Tucuman which was directed by the same douches, then Uruguay would remain as a province of Argentina, La Plata, Provincias Unidas or whatever our country would be called. I don't know if the Brazilian invasion was possible to defeat, or even butterfly away: Brazil always had a strong desire for the Oriental Band.
Have the British non-intervene in the Cisplatine War leading to Uruguayan independence, or make a more decesive Argentine victory on the war is another form.
However, Argentina annexing Uruguay after the Cisplatine war is a big no-no which would lead probably to Brazilian and even British intervention. I don't really see how you can't do it after it (outside of Victoria II of course)
Uruguay remaining a part of what would later become Argentina IS plausible. If the original governing juntas (pick any one) of Buenos Aires weren't fucking douches, and decided to include the Uruguayan patriots from the start and help them against Brazil, and include the rest of the other provinces. Or you can make the Liga Federal unite the nation instead of the Congress of Tucuman which was directed by the same douches, then Uruguay would remain as a province of Argentina, La Plata, Provincias Unidas or whatever our country would be called. I don't know if the Brazilian invasion was possible to defeat, or even butterfly away: Brazil always had a strong desire for the Oriental Band.
Have the British non-intervene in the Cisplatine War leading to Uruguayan independence, or make a more decesive Argentine victory on the war is another form.
However, Argentina annexing Uruguay after the Cisplatine war is a big no-no which would lead probably to Brazilian and even British intervention. I don't really see how you can't do it after it (outside of Victoria II of course)
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unprincipled peter
Donor
Figure out how to prevent artigas. Buenos aires actually sent him there to foment independence, and then found out he was a federalist. Should have figured that out first.
If he does come to power, don't collude with brazil for a brazilian takeover (ba preferred brazilians there than the federalist artigas). They took out artigas at his peak. Give him time and he might lose his luster and be easier to take out. Besides, do the uruguans resist as much if its spanish argentina invading instead of portuguese.?
If he does come to power, don't collude with brazil for a brazilian takeover (ba preferred brazilians there than the federalist artigas). They took out artigas at his peak. Give him time and he might lose his luster and be easier to take out. Besides, do the uruguans resist as much if its spanish argentina invading instead of portuguese.?
Well, Borges once wrote, in his Milonga a los orientales ("orientales", or Easterners, is an old Rioplatense name for Uruguayans):
"Milonga para que el tiempo
Vaya borrando fronteras;
Por algo tienen los mismos
Colores las dos banderas."
He also gave there a great description of Uruguay, from an Argentine point of view:
"El sabor de lo oriental
Con estas palabras pinto;
Es el sabor de lo que es
Igual y un poco distinto."
I won't translate it, cause it would lose everything, but I can tell you the last two verses read: "the flavour of what is... the same and a little different". A very good description, from our point of view.
As to the topic, I wouldn't discard an anexation AFTER 1828. It would be very hard, as you'd need Brazil to be in very serious internal trouble not to act, and to have Britain believe it's a good idea to have Argeninta in both margins of River Plate. But remember that in the 1840ies, the Argentine Head of State de facto controled most of Uruguay (except Montevideo) through his ally Oribe. If Brazil is distracted in a civil war and Montevideo falls, a formal annexation isn't out of the cards. Rosas might even have convinced the british that if he controled both margins of the River Plate, there would finally be peace in these region, which would be gould for trade...and for British interests...
"Milonga para que el tiempo
Vaya borrando fronteras;
Por algo tienen los mismos
Colores las dos banderas."
He also gave there a great description of Uruguay, from an Argentine point of view:
"El sabor de lo oriental
Con estas palabras pinto;
Es el sabor de lo que es
Igual y un poco distinto."
I won't translate it, cause it would lose everything, but I can tell you the last two verses read: "the flavour of what is... the same and a little different". A very good description, from our point of view.
As to the topic, I wouldn't discard an anexation AFTER 1828. It would be very hard, as you'd need Brazil to be in very serious internal trouble not to act, and to have Britain believe it's a good idea to have Argeninta in both margins of River Plate. But remember that in the 1840ies, the Argentine Head of State de facto controled most of Uruguay (except Montevideo) through his ally Oribe. If Brazil is distracted in a civil war and Montevideo falls, a formal annexation isn't out of the cards. Rosas might even have convinced the british that if he controled both margins of the River Plate, there would finally be peace in these region, which would be gould for trade...and for British interests...
Butterflies, butterflies everywhere.
I tend to agree with Thanksforallthefish. The issue is how to avoid a war with Portugal/Brazil, or to win it in the face of the superior Portuguese fleet. While a Portuguese invasion in the 1810s might be avoided, it will happen eventually: Brazil will want access to the Parana and Uruguay rivers so they can access Matto Grosso. I guess there are two ways to ensure a (somewhat) lasting peace with Brazil. One is to defeat them on land. If, somehow, a land offensive becomes doable despite the Brazilian naval blockade (which doesn't affect military action in land, but asphyxiates the economy) and the offensive begins to liberate slaves as it advances, the Brazilians might be brought to the negotiation table under fear of a slave revolt. The other is what happened in OTL. A weaker side in the civil war negotiates with Brazil military assistance (in the form of troops) in exchange for free navigation of the Parana and Uruguay rivers.
At this point, butterflies are swelling. The Montevideo business elite will become a counterweight to the Buenos Aires business elite, and this will dramatically alter the political and military situation. Instead of a single province the sea access of the entire country, we have two. Furthermore, if butterflies mean Rivadavia isn't in power by the time Sucre moves to liberate Bolivia (likely, as the Uruguayans will not want Rivadavia in power), then whoever is in charge (if anyone) can make a bid of keeping Bolivia as part of the United Provinces or whatever the country is called in ATL, further changing the political composition.
We also have different leaders. Artigas isn't going into exile. Lavalle's coup might not happen, either because there is no war with Brazil, because unitarians are in power when the war happens or Lavalle is out for whatever reason (the war happens when Lavalle is fighting the Spanish, he gets killed in battle, whatever). So while there might be a Unitarian take over at some point, it might not include the assassination of Federalist leaders. Even more, troops from Uruguay and the Liga Federal available, Rosas might not rise to power and could remain just a rich land owner until the day he dies.
If Dorrego is still exiled and finds his way into the USA he might be the hinge that makes Federalism (and Artigas) palatable to Buenos Aires. With political and military support, he could be elected as president, under a federal constitution, and cut short the civil war.
San Martin could return, as long as there is relative peace when he does. Given his age, I see him training a cadre of good military officers before going into retirement and dedicating the rest of his years to wine making or something. Unless he wants to get into politics, but given how linked internal politics and war were at that time, I don't see it.
Whatever butterflies you choose, the situation will still be very unstable. There will military takeovers in the provinces from time to time. IMO, Unitarians will be relative weaker than in OTL, but civil war is still in the cards. A lasting peace with Brazil isn't easy. Argentina will be subject to gunboat diplomacy, although with (if) a more united internal front, the consequences would be less damaging. Paraguay is in a tricky position. On one hand, without an independent Uruguay the War of the Triple Alliance is butterflied away. On the other, is effectively land locked and can be potentially blockaded by Argentina. If butterflies cause a shorter or less bloody civil war in Argentina, Paraguay can find itself facing aggressive Argentine politics aimed at annexing the country. In such a situation, I could see Paraguay joining Brazil in a war against Argentina once/if the situation in Argentina stabilizes, if such a war happens.
If they reach the late 19th Century as an independent country, they will be a lot better than in OTL. They won't have the losses of the War of the Triple Alliance and, through the 20th Century, they can not only become a customs/smuggling paradise for the Argentine and Brazilian middle/upper class, they can also take over OTL Uruguay's role as a fiscal paradise, all of which will boost their economy.
As for Argentina, butterflies. Pick the one you want. The civil war and the power dynamics inside the country will be completely changed.
With a Federal Constitution. IMHO, that's the only way to prevent the decades long civil war.
I tend to agree with Thanksforallthefish. The issue is how to avoid a war with Portugal/Brazil, or to win it in the face of the superior Portuguese fleet. While a Portuguese invasion in the 1810s might be avoided, it will happen eventually: Brazil will want access to the Parana and Uruguay rivers so they can access Matto Grosso. I guess there are two ways to ensure a (somewhat) lasting peace with Brazil. One is to defeat them on land. If, somehow, a land offensive becomes doable despite the Brazilian naval blockade (which doesn't affect military action in land, but asphyxiates the economy) and the offensive begins to liberate slaves as it advances, the Brazilians might be brought to the negotiation table under fear of a slave revolt. The other is what happened in OTL. A weaker side in the civil war negotiates with Brazil military assistance (in the form of troops) in exchange for free navigation of the Parana and Uruguay rivers.
At this point, butterflies are swelling. The Montevideo business elite will become a counterweight to the Buenos Aires business elite, and this will dramatically alter the political and military situation. Instead of a single province the sea access of the entire country, we have two. Furthermore, if butterflies mean Rivadavia isn't in power by the time Sucre moves to liberate Bolivia (likely, as the Uruguayans will not want Rivadavia in power), then whoever is in charge (if anyone) can make a bid of keeping Bolivia as part of the United Provinces or whatever the country is called in ATL, further changing the political composition.
We also have different leaders. Artigas isn't going into exile. Lavalle's coup might not happen, either because there is no war with Brazil, because unitarians are in power when the war happens or Lavalle is out for whatever reason (the war happens when Lavalle is fighting the Spanish, he gets killed in battle, whatever). So while there might be a Unitarian take over at some point, it might not include the assassination of Federalist leaders. Even more, troops from Uruguay and the Liga Federal available, Rosas might not rise to power and could remain just a rich land owner until the day he dies.
If Dorrego is still exiled and finds his way into the USA he might be the hinge that makes Federalism (and Artigas) palatable to Buenos Aires. With political and military support, he could be elected as president, under a federal constitution, and cut short the civil war.
San Martin could return, as long as there is relative peace when he does. Given his age, I see him training a cadre of good military officers before going into retirement and dedicating the rest of his years to wine making or something. Unless he wants to get into politics, but given how linked internal politics and war were at that time, I don't see it.
Whatever butterflies you choose, the situation will still be very unstable. There will military takeovers in the provinces from time to time. IMO, Unitarians will be relative weaker than in OTL, but civil war is still in the cards. A lasting peace with Brazil isn't easy. Argentina will be subject to gunboat diplomacy, although with (if) a more united internal front, the consequences would be less damaging. Paraguay is in a tricky position. On one hand, without an independent Uruguay the War of the Triple Alliance is butterflied away. On the other, is effectively land locked and can be potentially blockaded by Argentina. If butterflies cause a shorter or less bloody civil war in Argentina, Paraguay can find itself facing aggressive Argentine politics aimed at annexing the country. In such a situation, I could see Paraguay joining Brazil in a war against Argentina once/if the situation in Argentina stabilizes, if such a war happens.
If they reach the late 19th Century as an independent country, they will be a lot better than in OTL. They won't have the losses of the War of the Triple Alliance and, through the 20th Century, they can not only become a customs/smuggling paradise for the Argentine and Brazilian middle/upper class, they can also take over OTL Uruguay's role as a fiscal paradise, all of which will boost their economy.
As for Argentina, butterflies. Pick the one you want. The civil war and the power dynamics inside the country will be completely changed.
If this scenario will extend into the present era, well, we'll see José Mujica as one of the possible presidential candidates once Cristina Fernández end her term, and those weeds...
Holy shit. No comment really. Now I want to see a TL of this. I'm personally tired of the "Nothing Ever Happens In South America" cliché. I have not the time to start a TL (I need to take care of my own first) but I may make a quick map about this scenario. Any scenario that shorterns or butterflies the Civil Wars enterily WILL result in a more stable Argentina.
You are acussed of the murder of Mr. Butterfly and his family. How do you plead?
(but I got the joke)I once started, years ago, a multi-POD TL looking that premise, but it was turning into a bit of a wank and included stuff like a surviving Belgrano (due not contracting syphilis in his youth), a returning San Martin, Artigas returning from exile to become a viable presidential candidate.
IIRC the more solid POD was a Brazilian victory at Ituzaingo which, nonetheless, resulted in Uruguay still becoming part of Argentina (don't ask me how that worked out) which obviously prevented the coup against Dorrego. Dorrego would later become president and assemble a dream team style cabinet.
But a (single) more sensible POD has to be in the 1810s, although I think it's a tough one. Essentially, the business elite of Buenos Aires saw Montevideo as an enemy and acted accordingly. A change of leadership won't unify the country, because if it accommodates Artigas, it would last until it gets ousted. A federalist military victory, as it happened in 1820, wasn't enough in OTL.
You are acussed of the murder of Mr. Butterfly and his family. How do you plead?
Gotcha!Just wondering: Are you saying that Paraguay would play the role of offshore financial centre for Argentines and Brazilians the way that Uruguay is in real life? Would Mercosur headquarters be in Asuncion rather than in Montevideo?
Change Pedro II...
Brazil became powerful in the region and is probably one nation instead of half a dozen or more today because of Pedro II. His leadership and modernization programs allowed Brazil to project power and develop industry that made them a match for perhaps the rest of the continent combined.
If Argentina gets its act together and works with Uruguay (maybe even the Cisplantine War involves an alliance?) that is one way. Getting the Ragamuffin War and War of Carabegenem (spelling?) in Brazil to go differently would also work, perhaps even creating a coalition between the states involved. Either way, getting an earlier Argentinean government in place not totally dominated by dictators or crazies would be helpful.
Brazil became powerful in the region and is probably one nation instead of half a dozen or more today because of Pedro II. His leadership and modernization programs allowed Brazil to project power and develop industry that made them a match for perhaps the rest of the continent combined.
If Argentina gets its act together and works with Uruguay (maybe even the Cisplantine War involves an alliance?) that is one way. Getting the Ragamuffin War and War of Carabegenem (spelling?) in Brazil to go differently would also work, perhaps even creating a coalition between the states involved. Either way, getting an earlier Argentinean government in place not totally dominated by dictators or crazies would be helpful.
Both revolutions/revolts can only suceed if England intervenes in favor of rebels/revolutionaries (Cabanagem plausible, Ragamuffin not very much so). But at this point in time (1840s) the English already plotted (in 1828) to grant independence to Uruguay, and the montevidean elites are rivals to the buenairense and argentinean elites, so they will not like any union with them.
To a POD actually succeeds, you have to butterfly away the foundation of Montevideo.
I dont think any argentinean help could be decisive, giving the fact Argentina is a decentralized country and probably that help will be given by a couple of neighbour Governors.
And Uruguay and Argentina was in state of latent civil war between Blancos and Colorados at the period, so no organized help to ragamuffins, sorry.
And Uruguay and Argentina was in state of latent civil war between Blancos and Colorados at the period, so no organized help to ragamuffins, sorry.
La Rouge Beret
Donor
Would this raise the possibility of a Brazil, Paraguay, and Chile alliance against Argentina?
I'm currently reading the History of Paraguay 19th century U.S. diplomat Charles Washburn, and he says about Uruguay "It is most unfortunate, that, after the expulsion of the Spaniards, this fine province was not permanently annexed to the Argentine Confederation, or even to Brazil." Some people were thinking of this AHC long before we did!
Why would he write that?
It's a pitty for Argentina or Brazil, sure. But why would a US diplomat lament that neither had kept it?
Why would he write that?
It's a pitty for Argentina or Brazil, sure. But why would a US diplomat lament that neither had kept it?
He thought that Uruguay's economy would be twice as large if it had joined a larger country, given what he saw was a great climate and the good location of Montevideo for a port city. He personally preferred Argentina, given his view that Spanish and Portuguese speakers hated each other.