what if Apartheid ended in civil war?

ahmedali

Banned
Mandela was no moderate

There were disagreements about strategy, including moral disagreements in the ANC and anti apartheid movement more broadly about targets, what would be terrorism etc... but none of these were black vs white disagreements

In fact, Mandela is very much a moderate

There were factions in the African Congress who wanted to emulate Zimbabwe

He expelled the whites from the country, destroyed everything related to them, and confiscated their property

Mandela did not do that and wanted reconciliation
 
In fact, Mandela is very much a moderate

There were factions in the African Congress who wanted to emulate Zimbabwe

He expelled the whites from the country, destroyed everything related to them, and confiscated their property

Mandela did not do that and wanted reconciliation
Mandela became a moderate later in life, but was not at the time of his arrest the leader of some moderate faction in the ANC. He was literally the head of the ANCs armed wing, and there were those who disagreed with armed action.

Assuming "he" means Mugabe, farmland was indeed expropriation without compensation. Nothing else was confiscated. No groups were expelled. There was even a white minister in his successors cabinet for heaven's sake.
 
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ahmedali

Banned
Mandela became a moderate later in life, but was not at the time of his arrest the leader of some moderate faction in the ANC. He was literally the head of the ANCs armed wing, and there were those who disagreed with armed action.

Assuming "he" means Mugabe, farmland was indeed expropriation without compensation. Nothing else was confiscated. No groups were expelled. There was even a white minister in his successors cabinet for heaven's sake.
But he wasn't Mugabe and he didn't try to expel the whites so a point in favor that he's a moderate

The current South African government has quite a few non-black ministers

So Mandela moderated and avoided the worst-case scenario that could have happened to South Africa
 

ahmedali

Banned
Mugabe did not expell anyone.
Farms were taken, yes, across the whole country, but there was no mass expulsion

Got you


They've been out of the country since Zano took over

Yes, if you compare the path taken by South Africa compared to what could happen, it was very moderate

It could have turned into a mixture of Yugoslavia, Rwanda and Congo
 
That is 100% false. Zimbabwe still has a substantial white population 32 years after independence.

I dunno about that

White Zimbabwean population 1979: 242,000

In 2012: 28,732

Mugabe: "to strike fear in the hearts of the white man, our real enemy"

Mugabe: “The courts can do whatever they want, but no judicial decision will stand in our way ... My own position is that we should not even be defending our position in the courts. This country is our country and this land is our land ... They think because they are white they have a divine right to our resources. Not here. The white man is not indigenous to Africa. Africa is for Africans, Zimbabwe is for Zimbabweans.

*(Meredith, Martin (2002). Our Votes, Our Guns: Robert Mugabe and the Tragedy of Zimbabwe)

(Sidenote: I can’t help but wonder what Zimbabwe’s Khoisan population thinks about the “we were here first” argument)

“Mugabeism sought to deal with the problem of white settler racism by engaging in a project of anti-white racism that sought to deny white Zimbabweans citizenship by constantly referring to them as "amabhunu/Boers", thus enabling their removal from their land.” -Ndlovu-Gatsheni, Sabelo J. (2009). Making Sense of Mugabeism in Local and Global Politics

The drop in population could be explained by other factors, but when Mugabe’s antagonistic ideology is taken into account you can imagine why most of them left after he took power. You mentioned Mugabe’s successor having a white cabinet minister, but that’s not really relevant since Mnangagwa is a different person from Mugabe and has sought to distance himself from Mugabe and his ideas. Overall, Mugabe’s tenure as leader of Zimbabwe paints a very negative picture of race relations no matter how you slice it.
 
I dunno about that

White Zimbabwean population 1979: 242,000

In 2012: 28,732

Mugabe: "to strike fear in the hearts of the white man, our real enemy"

Mugabe: “The courts can do whatever they want, but no judicial decision will stand in our way ... My own position is that we should not even be defending our position in the courts. This country is our country and this land is our land ... They think because they are white they have a divine right to our resources. Not here. The white man is not indigenous to Africa. Africa is for Africans, Zimbabwe is for Zimbabweans.

*(Meredith, Martin (2002). Our Votes, Our Guns: Robert Mugabe and the Tragedy of Zimbabwe)

(Sidenote: I can’t help but wonder what Zimbabwe’s Khoisan population thinks about the “we were here first” argument)

“Mugabeism sought to deal with the problem of white settler racism by engaging in a project of anti-white racism that sought to deny white Zimbabweans citizenship by constantly referring to them as "amabhunu/Boers", thus enabling their removal from their land.” -Ndlovu-Gatsheni, Sabelo J. (2009). Making Sense of Mugabeism in Local and Global Politics

The drop in population could be explained by other factors, but when Mugabe’s antagonistic ideology is taken into account you can imagine why most of them left after he took power. You mentioned Mugabe’s successor having a white cabinet minister, but that’s not really relevant since Mnangagwa is a different person from Mugabe and has sought to distance himself from Mugabe and his ideas. Overall, Mugabe’s tenure as leader of Zimbabwe paints a very negative picture of race relations no matter how you slice it.
Thanks for the detail. I don't dispute that, and I know Mugabe's rhetoric was strongly anti-white, especially after 2000 (even when he had white minister in his cabinet).

I was reacting to the earlier posters statement that Mugabe expelled whites, or that all whites left.
 

ahmedali

Banned
Thanks for the detail. I don't dispute that, and I know Mugabe's rhetoric was strongly anti-white, especially after 2000 (even when he had white minister in his cabinet).

I was reacting to the earlier posters statement that Mugabe expelled whites, or that all whites left.
But it cannot be said that this statement is not true
 
But it cannot be said that this statement is not true
But

But he wasn't Mugabe and he didn't try to expel the whites
Mugabe didn't expel whites.
They've been out of the country since Zano took over
Was there a missing word there or something? They have been leaving since the late 70s (during the war), and the greatest drop was between the height of the war and early years of independence

But there were still 100,000 some 4 years after independence and a bit under 30,000 at the last census.
 

ahmedali

Banned
But


Mugabe didn't expel whites.

Was there a missing word there or something? They have been leaving since the late 70s (during the war), and the greatest drop was between the height of the war and early years of independence

But there were still 100,000 some 4 years after independence and a bit under 30,000 at the last census.
But it is still deteriorating greatly

South African whites are largely in place and have not been expelled
 
And to a large extent encouraged by Zano
Zanu, with a U.

It stands for Zimbabwe African National Union
Still not the same as expulsion. Words mean things.

Encouragement is like kicking out, but willingly
The distinction is important because there are governments that have expelled people of specific ethnic groups from the country, or from a province.

Mugabe and ZANU did not do that. They expelled white people from the land they farmed, but not from cities or other places. Some white farm owners who lost their land moved and settled with white farmers who hadn't lost (some of) their land. Some white farm staff were kept after the land was taken from its previous owners.

Mugabe and ZANU did a lot of things but they did not expel white people from Zimbabwe
 
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They also gave Indians and Nedeble, the more democratic, western oriented African group, harassment if not the gate.
If the new bunch has any sense, they will ask Ibo from Nigeria, and Indians to come back on any terms asked, as well as the white man.
Zimbabwe can be great again if politicans quit draining the wealth for patronage.
 
They also gave Indians and Nedeble, the more democratic, western oriented African group, harassment if not the gate.
If the new bunch has any sense, they will ask Ibo from Nigeria, and Indians to come back on any terms asked, as well as the white man.
Zimbabwe can be great again if politicans quit draining the wealth for patronage.
There were war crimes committed by government forces against the Ndebele during the early to mid 80s, but how can you describe one ethnic group as more democratic than another? And more western oriented?

Not sure what you are saying about Indians or Ibos though?
 
what if instead of ending peacefully, Apartheid results in civil war between the South African goverment and the ANC
To return to the original post, South Africa was in a state of civil war by the late 1980s, but that war was irregular warfare
To get to conventional warfare, MK would need to be holding liberated zones, and attempting to expand from them. This was never in the ANC's political strategy, nor in MK's military resourcing and training

If the ANC was working towards that strategy, it would need much heavier military resourcing, and the USSR would have needed to be willing to supply this to MK, as they started supplying ZIPRA.

Then MK would need defendable bases in the border area. That presents a problem as most border areas were heavily patrolled by the police, and the apartheid army could be readily deployed there.

The one exception to that was the Namibia Angola border, where, yes, there was conventional warfare. The South Africa intervention / invasion in Angola was described to the domestic white audience as the "border war". It was largely conventional warfare and pitted the apartheid South African army, with a largely conscripted infantry, and their allies/puppets such as UNITA against the Angolan army, also with a largely conscripted infantry, with SWAPO and MK (whose training basis were in Angola and whose soldiers fought in this war), supported by Cuba and the USSR.

The end to that war and the South African military withdrawal from Angola*, lead to the independence of Nambia and paved the way for talk between the apartheid government and the ANC.

So in essence the large scale civil war you postulate took place, but it was fought in Angola.

*recognizing it was unwinnable or being defeated, depending who you listen to
 
There were war crimes committed by government forces against the Ndebele during the early to mid 80s, but how can you describe one ethnic group as more democratic than another? And more western oriented?

Not sure what you are saying about Indians or Ibos though?
Under the Rhodesian system, just as with most colonial systems, there was one more favored African groups. the Nedeble were the pet Africans, of the white settlers. They tended to be more focused on western ideology.
The Ibo fullfilled a similar role in Nigeria.
 
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