What if: Anglo-Franco-Soviet Alliance in 1939

The problem is the usual. You have to up both the British temperature (which is not terribly difficult, they were, at this point, at least lukewarm) and the Polish one (which is nearly impossible, they are ice cold about the idea of allowing Soviet troops in).
 

iVC

Donor
Seeing that this Anglo-Franco-Soviet Alliance is unlikely ever to have happen, i never have heard Stalin was afraid of a Anglo-Franco-German Alliance.

Soviet Union was very anxious and worried about German rearmament program along with Hitler's 'Mein Kampf' quotes about 'living space on the east'.
So since 1933 soviet diplomacy tried several times to form some kind of defensive alliances against Germany. Soviet Unions actually had mutual assistance pact with Czechoslovakia which was lost in vain when Benes was persuaded to surrender.

Imagine yourself in the Stalin's chair. You could see a rising tide of a right-wing governments in the Central Europe. Germany. Annexed Austria. Hungary. Romania. Spanish Civil War. Splitting of Czechoslovakia. Poland actually taking part in the chainsawing of Czech state (Tesin region). And every time you've raised your voice against these events, no one is taking you seriously. Or just mutters something like 'huh, no way I'll help these commies!'. France barely saved itself from the fascist coup in the 1934.

And now you discover about Allied delegation trying to waste your time until Hitler invades Poland. You ask them repeatedly - would you, a bunch of cowards, help me in pushing this madman back? No one answers positively.

So you have all reasons to think about some powers trying to appease Hitler and set him against your Soviet state.

Lest we forget Japanese Empire nearing the eastern borders of USSR, which already tried twice (Hasan Lake and Khalkin-Hol) to sparkle a border war.
 
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Soviet Union was very anxious and worried about German rearmament program along with Hitler's 'Mein Kampf' quotes about 'living space on the east'.
So since 1933 soviet diplomacy tried several times to form some kind of defensive alliances against Germany. Soviet Unions actually had mutual assistance pact with Czechoslovakia which was lost in vain when Benes was persuaded to surrender.

Imagine yourself in the Stalin's chair. You could see a rising tide of a right-wing governments in the Central Europe. Germany. Annexed Austria. Hungary. Romania. Spanish Civil War. Splitting of Czechoslovakia. Poland actually taking part in the chainsawing of Czech state (Tesin region). And every time you've raised your voice against these events, no one is taking you seriously. Or just mutters something like 'huh, no way I'll help these commies!'. France barely saved itself from the fascist coup in the 1934.

And now you discover about Allied delegation trying to waste your time until Hitler invades Poland. You ask them repeatedly - would you, a bunch of cowards, help me in pushing this madman back? No one answers positively.

So you have all reasons to think about some powers trying to appease Hitler and set him against your Soviet state.
So the country who wanted a alliance with the west to stop Germany in order to protect itself signs a treaty with the same country it considers the greatest danger on Earth.
 

iVC

Donor
So the country who wanted a alliance with the west to stop Germany in order to protect itself signs a treaty with the same country it considers the greatest danger on Earth.

To keep Hitler from advancing for some time, no more, no less. Bad outcome, but still some kind of solution.
What would've been your own decision as Stalin after Drax delegation failed? Remember you still have a German foreign minister waiting in your lobby, with non-aggression treaty in his pocket.
 
To keep Hitler from advancing for some time, no more, no less. Bad outcome, but still some kind of solution.
What would've been your own decision as Stalin after Drax delegation failed? Remember you still have a German foreign minister waiting in your lobby, with non-aggression treaty in his pocket.
Do not know, but i wonder, did the French and British delegation know about the German approach to the Soviet Union.
 

iVC

Donor
Do not know, but i wonder, did the French and British delegation know about the German approach to the Soviet Union.

As far as I know - no. It was a complete surprise for everyone.

"On August 24, a 10-year non-aggression pact was signed. The news was met with utter shock and surprise by government leaders and media worldwide, most of whom were aware only of the British-French-Soviet negotiations that had taken place for months." (this is from wiki article).

I think due to actual spheres of influence redistribution these approachements were kept highly secret. Also uncle Joe could still have hope to forge a much more reliable alliance with the West.
 
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iVC

Donor
The significance of now shameful and stenching M-R Pact for the USSR was not only 'peace along the entire border', not only 'more time to rearm itself' and not only 'neutrality in the meat grinder of Europe'. Germany stood before presumably the strongest army in Europe - French army, and behind the french army was the first economic power of the globe - the British Empire, with all it's colonies. The significance of the pact was a guarantee of Germany's defeat in the long run and hence the guaranteed place of the USSR among the winners.
 
The significance of now shameful and stenching M-R Pact for the USSR was not only 'peace along the entire border', not only 'more time to rearm itself' and not only 'neutrality in the meat grinder of Europe'. Germany stood before presumably the strongest army in Europe - French army, and behind the french army was the first economic power of the globe - the British Empire, with all it's colonies. The significance of the pact was a guarantee of Germany's defeat in the long run and hence the guaranteed place of the USSR among the winners.
But the Anglo-Franco-Soviet Alliance could also done that, of course Poland would have to change its mind first.
 

iVC

Donor
But the Anglo-Franco-Soviet Alliance could also done that, of course Poland would have to change its mind first.

I think Poland could be persuaded if someone from the french or british govt estimated their countries unpreparedness for an actual European war and came to Poland in person to try and plead them to start talking with the Soviets.

Looks like 'mirroring Rudolph Hess flight'. Someone from the French govt boards the plane and arrives to Warsaw to personally persuade the govt to stop dreaming about polish flag over Reichstag and start actually save everyone's asses.

Ribbentropp's offer is bluntly rejected by Moscow and German chancellory receives a joint and strict warning from both East and West. The Bismarck's 'coalitions nightmare' is rising up again!
 
What would've been your own decision as Stalin after Drax delegation failed? Remember you still have a German foreign minister waiting in your lobby, with non-aggression treaty in his pocket.
It's a fair question. I like to think, if I were in Stalin's shoes, I would have recalled that:
  • the non-aggression treaty amounted to no more than a Nazi promise; and
  • Hitler is one of the few people on the planet less trustworthy than me.
And it wasn't purely a cynical exercise in buying time on Stalin's part. He genuinely seems to have trusted Hitler more than the West. It's true that the West had given him small reason to trust them, but surely Hitler had given none at all.
So another question: did Stalin actually have to jump one way or the other? Could he not have stayed strictly neutral? Also a perilous course, but at least an option worth exploring.
 
I think Poland could be persuaded if someone from the french or british govt estimated their countries unpreparedness for an actual European war and came to Poland in person to try and plead them to start talking with the Soviets.

Looks like 'mirroring Rudolph Hess flight'. Someone from the French govt boards the plane and arrives to Warsaw to personally persuade the govt to stop dreaming about polish flag over Reichstag and start actually save everyone's asses.
And can they also give a 100 % guarantee that the Soviets who not only have to move true Poland but also begin their invasion of Germany from Poland will not decide to stay in Poland for ever.
 
Stalin and other soviet leaders were very afraid about Hitler secretly making an arrangement with the western powers to chew through Poland and go straight to the Motherland. So when Ribbentrop promised the non-aggression pact, Stalin was eager to sign it.

Soviet Union of 1939 was very unprepared for a one-to-one war, even without example of Winter War. M-R pact was a hard and churlish decision, but it actually bought Soviets almost two years to prepare.

ITTL that would be an astonishing decision. To sign the treaty with the admiral Drax and sign another with Hitler the next day! Oh my goodness, this one night someone in the Kremlin actually decided to shut out from any wars in Europe?

Soviet Union was more than ready to fight Germany on defensive setting in 1939. There is no plausible scenario, and it was known already in 1939, that Germany could fight the might of the Soviet Union. Stalin gave Hitler almost two additional years to prepare the Wehrmacht for Barbarossa.

In OTL the M-R pact lead into situation in which Germany could live through the Allied blockade, could conquer France and drive Britain out of the continent, and then prepare for Batbarossa.

Even just passive neutrality would have been a better choice for Soviet Union. Without Soviet support Germany would not have been able to conduct the campaign against France as well as in OTL, and even if they did, they would not have had the resources to prepare themselves for Barbarossa after that.

Stalin just overplayed his hands, he excepted to gather the low hanging fruit (ie. Baltic States, Finland, Bessarabia and Eastern Poland) while capitalists would bleed themselves dry. Instead he got stronger Nazi Germany with Finland and Romania as it's allies due to Soviet agressions.

The lesson learned? Don't try to make a deal with your mortal enemy. Destroy it.
 
But let's go the other way, what could be the maximum realistic targets for Soviets in 1939 negotiations with UK and France? What could UK and France offer? How about technology transfers, preferential trade status and a free hand in the Far East? Maybe, say, the R-class battleships for the Soviet Pacific Fleet or some other drastic offer?
 

iVC

Donor
And it wasn't purely a cynical exercise in buying time on Stalin's part. He genuinely seems to have trusted Hitler more than the West. It's true that the West had given him small reason to trust them, but surely Hitler had given none at all.

I don't think he really passionately and genuine trusted the Reich. I'm quite sure it was the decision which allowed Stalin to try and turn the lemon into lemonade. The collapse of France was a real kick in the teeth for soviet military command and government. They realised they are fucked now, but before this there were no signs of wermacht able to injure such a blow to France.

He tried to persuade western powers for almost a decade. No real deal was made. Then he received an offer from the devil but it was a real deal finally.
 

iVC

Donor
Soviet Union was more than ready to fight Germany on defensive setting in 1939. There is no plausible scenario, and it was known already in 1939, that Germany could fight the might of the Soviet Union. Stalin gave Hitler almost two additional years to prepare the Wehrmacht for Barbarossa.

Until french collapse in the 1940 everything seemed to be not so bad. Allies literally betrayed Poland, phony war was at its height, french didn't even try to poke Saarland and uncle Joe had little doubts about his deal with the devil. Long and bloody stalemate was more likable than IRL wermacht's great success against France. I suppose if Germany fucked up with the invasion of France, Stalin would have be the absolute winner without a drop of blood shed.

Don't you agree that Stalin was not so wrong (without your current knowledge of IRL history) when he worried about possibility of bloody Adolf pumping aryan muscles and sitting upon the Poland corpse with France and Britain just sitting quiet and declaring their concerns?

On 1 October 1939, Winston Churchill—via the radio—stated:

... That the Russian armies should stand on this line was clearly necessary for the safety of Russia against the Nazi menace. At any rate, the line is there, and an Eastern Front has been created which Nazi Germany does not dare assail. When Herr von Ribbentrop was summoned to Moscow last week it was to learn the fact, and to accept the fact, that the Nazi designs upon the Baltic States and upon the Ukraine must come to a dead stop.


What about real RKKA status in 1939 - it suffered great logistic problems even while occupying almost-beaten East Poland.
 
Basically Britian and France were waiting for Germany and the Soviet Union to annihilate each other and then pick off the last man standing. This was a major part of the appeasement strategy that history has forgotten. They thought this plan was so beautiful it can't fail. Stalin knew this and thought he would out smart Britian and France with the M-R Pact. The only one to exploit the situation perfectly was Hitler.

But all anyone remembers these days is the naive Chamberlain standard narrative. It should really be a case study of game theory.
 

iVC

Donor
But let's go the other way, what could be the maximum realistic targets for Soviets in 1939 negotiations with UK and France? What could UK and France offer? How about technology transfers, preferential trade status and a free hand in the Far East? Maybe, say, the R-class battleships for the Soviet Pacific Fleet or some other drastic offer?

Memoirs of Drax delegation allows us to state that Soviet Union demanded no more and no less than knowing of french order of battle, right to pass and supply soviet troops through Poland and Romania and a strict schedule of planned french offensive against Saar to synchronise it with soviet offensives. To keep it simple: Stalin wanted to be sure if France is going to attack and when.

Regrettably, allied delegation simply could not provide such a data therefore turning the discussion into the small-talk format.(Oh, yes, we are eager to fight! But we don't know where, when and with which avaliable force...)
 

nbcman

Donor
It's a fair question. I like to think, if I were in Stalin's shoes, I would have recalled that:
  • the non-aggression treaty amounted to no more than a Nazi promise; and
  • Hitler is one of the few people on the planet less trustworthy than me.
And it wasn't purely a cynical exercise in buying time on Stalin's part. He genuinely seems to have trusted Hitler more than the West. It's true that the West had given him small reason to trust them, but surely Hitler had given none at all.
So another question: did Stalin actually have to jump one way or the other? Could he not have stayed strictly neutral? Also a perilous course, but at least an option worth exploring.
I doubt that Stalin trusted Hitler. But the M-R pact promised more gains to the Soviets at little or no cost (Baltic states, Bessarabia, Eastern Poland) than what the West could offer. Plus the West couldn't offer much military support in 1939 so the Soviets would have had to do the bulk of the fighting. The M-R pact wasn't a disastrous idea for the Soviets in August 1939 (trading peace for time to build up) but it turned out to be one due to the Fall of France.
 

iVC

Donor
I doubt that Stalin trusted Hitler. But the M-R pact promised more gains to the Soviets at little or no cost (Baltic states, Bessarabia, Eastern Poland) than what the West could offer. Plus the West couldn't offer much military support in 1939 so the Soviets would have had to do the bulk of the fighting. The M-R pact wasn't a disastrous idea for the Soviets in August 1939 (trading peace for time to build up) but it turned out to be one due to the Fall of France.

YEAH! NO-ONE could predict Hitler would tear through France with such an ease. NO-ONE could predict Hitler would have entire Europa in his pocket for half a year before 1941. Until this, Stalin's gamble was looking like a good tactical move after the decade of fruitless attempts to create an anti-German camp.
 
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