What if America invaded Pakistan to chase down Osama Bin Laden

In OTL Pakistan was always a reluctant partner in helping America fight terrorism. One of the large difficulties in occupying Afghanistan was that Taliban fighters from Pakistan would cross the border to Afghanistan and America would never be able to knock them out at the source. What if America decided that the Pakistani obstructionism was a result of them actually supporting Al-Qaeda and as a result America declares war and invades Pakistan.
 
They don't have the range to reach America. And we could do a preemptive strike and take out their nukes.

A destabilized Pakistan means a good chance nukes disappear into the hands of terrorists who manage to get them by boat into American and European cities.

Bin Laden was not worth it especially as Pakistan agreed to allow our CIA in and SF to do raids on their country. In 2001 Pakistan agreed if the CIA found Bin Laden that US SF could strike and they to defend their national sovereignty would scream and yell, but do nothing against American troops.
 
First off, the US forces in Afghanistan are screwed big time. The supply lines are gone, so they're only going to be supplied by air, through territory with anti-air capability to territory where disruptive elements have the capability to screw with landing zones.

Fighting through Pakistan is going to be messy. It's not good territory for the US to use its advantages in mobility.

China and Pakistan have strong military ties. Good luck with pissing off the Chinese big time. Any attack on Pakistan is going to wreck the ports, which have huge Chinese investments, so you've just pissed off China seriously.

It's also right on the doorstep of Iran, so you're relying on the goodwill of Iran to cover your flank. Or you're going to have to divert a large screening force to protect that flank.

And all this to chase down one person who - amazingly enough - can move.

And that's without talking about the Pakistan disporia.

It's not the smartest idea in the world.
 
They don't have the range to reach America. And we could do a preemptive strike and take out their nukes.

According to Wikipedia, they had about 100 nukes in 2001. Taking out ALL of them before they can strike seems rather tricky. And while it's true they *might* not be able to deliver them to the US (don't forget unconventional means), it doesn't mean that them having them wouldn't be useful. In particular, we have allies and interests across the globe. Nuclear strikes on US troops, ships, and perhaps even the cities of allied countries (Israel, Saudi Arabia, India, Jordan) would be MORE than enough to make us quickly regret invading a nuclear armed state.

Here is the thing, I am not saying Pakistan would "win" in any armed conflict with the USA, it wouldn't. However, the key to nuclear deterrence is to make "winning" the war feel like losing. As bad as AQ is, would having more free reign in Pakistan really be worth the risks of being at war with a nuclear armed enemy?
 
Tactical nuclear warfare would result in unacceptable US combat casualties, not to mention NATO would bail on the whole afghan venture.

Like its been said this is a bad idea that makes iraq look like a cakewalk with even less justification. Pakistan has a population of 200 million. Good luck.
 

missouribob

Banned
Only way it works is if 9/11 was nuclear. Pakistan's government is different or helped or supplied the nuke or whatever. The U.S. gives an ultimatum but a coup occurs and its rejected. The United States preemptively strikes Pakistan's nuclear stockpile and destroys the Pakistani state. Within all of this U.S. Special Forces are trying to track down Osama, loose nukes and Pakistani officials.

There is a pretty good nuclear 9/11 thread about such a campaign somewhere on the site.
 
I don't see the US 'declaring war and invading Pakistan'. I could see them just saying 'fuck it', and pursuing Taliban fighters into Pakistan, particularly the border areas that are dominated by warlords who pay lip service to the Pakistani government... the idea being that if 'Pakistan won't help us secure their own damn border, we'll just cross it in hot pursuit when necessary'... running the Taliban operatives down before they can get into hiding. Back in the days when the US was first operating there, I thought that this would happen a lot more often than it did...
 
Only way it works is if 9/11 was nuclear. Pakistan's government is different or helped or supplied the nuke or whatever. The U.S. gives an ultimatum but a coup occurs and its rejected. The United States preemptively strikes Pakistan's nuclear stockpile and destroys the Pakistani state. Within all of this U.S. Special Forces are trying to track down Osama, loose nukes and Pakistani officials.
Reminds me of the plot from Executive Orders, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Orders
 
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>Invading a nuclear armed state around the time that it was in the middle of a nuclear standoff with India.

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I don't think war was even declared on Afghanistan, was it? At least not officially. I would say it is more likely the Americans based in Pakistan simply would move around as they liked. Probably would just use special forces, though.
 
Only way it works is if 9/11 was nuclear. Pakistan's government is different or helped or supplied the nuke or whatever. The U.S. gives an ultimatum but a coup occurs and its rejected. The United States preemptively strikes Pakistan's nuclear stockpile and destroys the Pakistani state. Within all of this U.S. Special Forces are trying to track down Osama, loose nukes and Pakistani officials.

There is a pretty good nuclear 9/11 thread about such a campaign somewhere on the site.
Ahhh yes, Dr. Khan sold secrets on greeting nuclear material as well as missiles to the Libyans, Iranians, and North Koreans, didn't he? Even if the attack didn't involve it, perhaps when this comes to light (I forget when he actually sold the stuff), Pakistan might get the blame for a bit of other stuff. Especially if we butterfly things to him selling to Iraq.
 
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