Assuming the UK stays in but no lend-lease, and Japan goes north...
Goodness. It's like one of these turns up every three days on average.
There is only one outcome of Japan going north - it's expedited collapse on the Asian mainland, Germany or no.
big question is do the Germans get to/isolate Moscow. Given a diminished Brit capacity due to more effective U-boats absent 50 destroyers, and partial US escorting, and less willingness on US shippers to risk trips to UK, this is not ASB.
The moon is not pink therefore the USA will always defeat the Confederates. Prove causality between insufficient German anti-convoy capabilities and the Battle of Moscow. Oh wait, you can't.
Further you have to convince me that the Germans, who got bogged down in much smaller Stalingrad could realistically even do as well in Moscow as they did there.
I think britain comes to an accommodation first, and then the Russians do (after Stalin has an accident) as the Russians see that a rumo Russia Urals to most of Siberia better than complete collapse.
As usual, too many Hearts of Iron fans. There was never going to be an Arhangelsk-to-Astrakhan border, because that does not leave a viable state for the USSR nor can the Germans hold all that area down.
If there's any settlement, it's going to happen after the Germans are already on retreat but the Red Army cannot raise another 30 divisions or so to finish the job, and it will lie somewhere in Western Ukraine/Belarus.
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I have a major theoretical problem with all these Nazi-wanks in absence of lend-lease. First, they don't consider the timescales of when the lend-lease arrived and when it went into exploitation. Second, they don't consider what it was that was really critical in the LL (food for civillians) and instead assume that the fighting units will not be capable without LL material. They won't be unable to fight, however, they will be unable to make quick sweeps to create pockets as efficiently. That does not mean, however, that the Germans will not eventually have to retreat. Thirdly, even considering how many lucky dice the Germans already rolled OTL, most of these scenarios assume better rolls still. However, it's not inconceivable that a lot of things could go wrong for the Germans instead of inevitably better.