What if Aguinaldo takes Manila?

According to a book I've read, Emilio Aguinaldo had a chance of saving the Philippine Republic if he took Manila between May to August 1898 instead of allowing the Americans to land unopposed, as it would possibly force the US to negotiate with the revolutionary gov't on equal footing. It could also unite the scattered revolutionary movements in Visayas and Mindanao under Aguinaldo's banner.

But unfortunately Aguinaldo let that opportunity pass him by just to appease his Yankee "allies", and the rest is history.

But, what if Aguinaldo decided to man up for once and ignore the American request to stay out of Manila? How could this change Philippine history?
 
if he can take it and get recognized by at least one of the great powers before December, the Philippines may gain independence. perhaps in the way Cuba gained independence.

we won't be able to participate in the talks, but not having Manila (center of government, culture, and most commerce) pretty much takes away the possibility of American control. or at least will make it nigh impossible.

how that goes depends on what happens next.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Republic of the Philippines, most likely;

According to a book I've read, Emilio Aguinaldo had a chance of saving the Philippine Republic if he took Manila between May to August 1898 instead of allowing the Americans to land unopposed, as it would possibly force the US to negotiate with the revolutionary gov't on equal footing. It could also unite the scattered revolutionary movements in Visayas and Mindanao under Aguinaldo's banner.

But unfortunately Aguinaldo let that opportunity pass him by just to appease his Yankee "allies", and the rest is history.

But, what if Aguinaldo decided to man up for once and ignore the American request to stay out of Manila? How could this change Philippine history?

Republic of the Philippines, most likely; presumably with more agency than Cuba did under the Platt Amendment.

Presumably a US naval station at Cavite and another at Davao; the Filipinos themselves would have been the target of the Germans and/or Japanese absent a great power alliance, overt or otherwise.

The Twentieth Century will be interesting.

Best,
 
But, what if Aguinaldo decided to man up for once and ignore the American request to stay out of Manila? How could this change Philippine history?

If Aguinaldo had taken Manila, there would be no notion that Philippines is weak. Philippines had just beaten a Great Power Spain in all land battles without USAs help. Although Great powers would think twice to invade Philippines, a lot of the newer great powers like Germany, Japan will be interested in it.

The Japan-Philippines alliance would have pushed through since it was in the works around that time. So, in a sense Philippines would be in the British Sphere.

Sun Yat Sen would have used Philippines as a base of operations or major aid donor just like how he planned in OTL. Thus, changing China's modern history.

By the 1920s or later, Philippines making a difference in the world or the region will totally depend if Philippines industrialized right after independence.
 
If Aguinaldo had taken Manila, there would be no notion that Philippines is weak. Philippines had just beaten a Great Power Spain in all land battles without USAs help. Although Great powers would think twice to invade Philippines, a lot of the newer great powers like Germany, Japan will be interested in it.

The Japan-Philippines alliance would have pushed through since it was in the works around that time. So, in a sense Philippines would be in the British Sphere.

Sun Yat Sen would have used Philippines as a base of operations or major aid donor just like how he planned in OTL. Thus, changing China's modern history.

By the 1920s or later, Philippines making a difference in the world or the region will totally depend if Philippines industrialized right after independence.

Interestingly enough, I found this article on the Inquirer about Sun Yat Sen and the Philippines.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Well, the depth of US involvement in the Western Pacific,

How interesting will it be? Please elaborate. :cool:


Well, the depth of US involvement in the Western Pacific, for one thing; if the PI (and Guam?) are not US territory, then the liklihood of the US becoming deeply involved in China as one of the Treaty Powers is lessened, and the whole question of whether the US and Japan face off over the potential of Japanese expansionism in the region is wide open, as well.

If the PI figures in US strategic thinking as a faraway place for which the Americans feel some responsibility but no actual ownership (Liberia is not a great example, but it is sort of along those lines), presumably the PI builds its own future under (more or less) the American umbrella, but that will end at some point. If WW I comes along, and the Japanese come out of it in roughly the same shape as historically, and the US is basically disenchanted with geopolitical involvement outside of the Western Hemisphere, and the Depression hits, it is quite possible the US will decide whatever de facto understanding it has with the Filipinos is not worth the potential cost, and pulls out in the 1930s for the Dateline and points east.

Which means, if European history follows roughly the same path, the Japanese may or may not decide to go to war, if they can get the sort of deals they got from Vichy regarding Indochina from the British and Dutch.

At which point, the US - presumably - is much more likely to focus on Germany as an actual threat to the Western Hemisphere, and be content to remain on the strategic defensive (i.e., east of the Dateline) in the Pacific.

Which means, possibly, that Imperial Japan or something resembling it survives the 1940s...

I acknowledge there are a boatload of ifs in the above, but the US intervention in the PI was the doorway to real engagement in the Western Pacific for the US, beyond trade and the like.

Very different world.

Best,
 

Driftless

Donor
Using the Original Post as the POD, what conditions would need to happen for the Philippines to avoid being overrun by a greater power (name your poison on that one), while encouraging outside financial development? There are a number of hot issues to be resolved in short order to avoid chaos.
* What form of government and how are laws created and enforced?
* External security
* Internal security - just basic law and order in a multicultural society
* Economics - how do you quickly transition from a colonial economy to a sustainable, independent form? The Philippines has some valuable resources.
 
Well, the depth of US involvement in the Western Pacific, for one thing; if the PI (and Guam?) are not US territory, then the liklihood of the US becoming deeply involved in China as one of the Treaty Powers is lessened, and the whole question of whether the US and Japan face off over the potential of Japanese expansionism in the region is wide open, as well.

If the PI figures in US strategic thinking as a faraway place for which the Americans feel some responsibility but no actual ownership (Liberia is not a great example, but it is sort of along those lines), presumably the PI builds its own future under (more or less) the American umbrella, but that will end at some point. If WW I comes along, and the Japanese come out of it in roughly the same shape as historically, and the US is basically disenchanted with geopolitical involvement outside of the Western Hemisphere, and the Depression hits, it is quite possible the US will decide whatever de facto understanding it has with the Filipinos is not worth the potential cost, and pulls out in the 1930s for the Dateline and points east.

Which means, if European history follows roughly the same path, the Japanese may or may not decide to go to war, if they can get the sort of deals they got from Vichy regarding Indochina from the British and Dutch.

At which point, the US - presumably - is much more likely to focus on Germany as an actual threat to the Western Hemisphere, and be content to remain on the strategic defensive (i.e., east of the Dateline) in the Pacific.

Which means, possibly, that Imperial Japan or something resembling it survives the 1940s...

I acknowledge there are a boatload of ifs in the above, but the US intervention in the PI was the doorway to real engagement in the Western Pacific for the US, beyond trade and the like.

Very different world.

Best,

hn~ i think killing McKinley earlier would shut down that doorway into American imperialism.

there ARE a lot of possibilities here.

without US necessity of intervention, any Pacific War that happens is purely the concern of Europe.

now let's trace what happens.

the Japanese imperial ambitions are growing, Russia is still headed to a bad place, and so is the Qing dynasty (though China as a whole may do better).

the closest war coming seems to be the Boxer Rebellion, which is in a year and would suit the Philippine Republic and Sun Yat-sen's ambitions nicely.

---

I was thinking the Philippines would be a natural ally for Japan or China (but not both, for obvious reasons).

America would have a little influence here, more or less, but as the guy above said, America will drop us and the rest of the Western Pacific like a hot potato.

Of course, that's assuming we don't take another direction. 1898 to 1939 is a long time, little less than the Meiji period, and we already have open ports and a respectable middle class (which is why the Philippines was able to rebel in the first place).

with Asian nationalism rising, the British, Dutch, and French may feel somewhat uneasy. the Philippines being independent might send a dangerous message to pretty much all the natives of Southeast Asia (dangerous in their eyes of course).

if Japan pulls off a victory against Russia, that might be the breaking point.

you may have just started decolonization in Asia two generations early.

---

(sorry for this rambling. :eek::eek::eek:)
 
Using the Original Post as the POD, what conditions would need to happen for the Philippines to avoid being overrun by a greater power (name your poison on that one), while encouraging outside financial development? There are a number of hot issues to be resolved in short order to avoid chaos.
* What form of government and how are laws created and enforced?
* External security
* Internal security - just basic law and order in a multicultural society
* Economics - how do you quickly transition from a colonial economy to a sustainable, independent form? The Philippines has some valuable resources.

The Malolos republic and constitution was created in otl. It wil most likely be the law had the OP been achieved.

Absent of a Phil-am war, philippines would have an intact standing army although it's navy would be dependent on what it can confiscate from what's left in the spanish asian armada. Only luzon would be defensible without a powerful navy.

Philippines would start as an agriculture based economy. the economic heading would totally depend with the president after Aguinaldo. The aguinaldo government budget in 1899 was around $6m+ Mexican dollars. Philippine economy was around 2/3 of Mexico economy Same time otl when philippines has been in war vs the spanish or Americans since 1896.
 
Aguinaldo's capture of Manila was not even an assurance for a stable Philippines in the short to medium run because the rest of the Philippines like Negros and Zamboanga were creating their own republics independent of Manila. Sulu might not even join with the Philippine Republic unless Aguinaldo uses armed force to force Sulu join the Philippines or have the Sulu Sultanate representing the deliberations of Malolos Constitution. Had the Malolos constitution prevailed, the Philippines would have taken the Cuban early 20th century trajectory, a puppet of the United States.
 

Redhand

Banned
Aguinaldo's capture of Manila was not even an assurance for a stable Philippines in the short to medium run because the rest of the Philippines like Negros and Zamboanga were creating their own republics independent of Manila. Sulu might not even join with the Philippine Republic unless Aguinaldo uses armed force to force Sulu join the Philippines or have the Sulu Sultanate representing the deliberations of Malolos Constitution. Had the Malolos constitution prevailed, the Philippines would have taken the Cuban early 20th century trajectory, a puppet of the United States.

The US was arguably what united the Philippines simply through force.

I don't think the US would commit to a colonial mission when what they truly wanted was a naval base and a chance to get into the Chinese markets. The whole suppression of the rebellion came after the military got into the Philippines and took sides in a local conflict.
 
Aguinaldo's capture of Manila was not even an assurance for a stable Philippines in the short to medium run because the rest of the Philippines like Negros and Zamboanga were creating their own republics independent of Manila. Sulu might not even join with the Philippine Republic unless Aguinaldo uses armed force to force Sulu join the Philippines or have the Sulu Sultanate representing the deliberations of Malolos Constitution. Had the Malolos constitution prevailed, the Philippines would have taken the Cuban early 20th century trajectory, a puppet of the United States.

First of all, no one said the requirement is a stable Philippines. We all know Luna and Aguinaldo will have to fight out eventually with an 1898 PoD with or without independence.

Sulu wasnt even part of the Philippines at this time around.

Negros recognized the Malolos republic, which was a federal republic. Besides Luzon, the rest of the Philippines are just not populated nor have the resources to become independent or resist any Foreign power without help from Luzon. There was a very large population disparity back then by region. Wherein other islands average few thousands while you had millions in Luzon.

So if we put your scenario that everyone in Visayas and Mindanao breaks away from malolos republic for whatever reason, they can be easily taken by any foreign power even third rate foreign powers including Spain.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
The problem with the "ally with China or Japan" idea is

I was thinking the Philippines would be a natural ally for Japan or China (but not both, for obvious reasons)

The problem with the "ally with China or Japan" idea is the PI is likely to end up like a tropical Korea...:(

Keeping the US interested enough to have a reasonable squadron steaming around, but disinterested enough to deal with Aguinaldo et al, is a narrow path to stick to, but the alternative to the US having a benign but less than colonial relationship with the PI is (probably) getting imperialized by someone, and odds are:

1) Spain
2) Germany
3) Japan

None of which do a lot for an independent Philippines - the Japanese, especially.

Best,
 
The problem with the "ally with China or Japan" idea is the PI is likely to end up like a tropical Korea...:(

Keeping the US interested enough to have a reasonable squadron steaming around, but disinterested enough to deal with Aguinaldo et al, is a narrow path to stick to, but the alternative to the US having a benign but less than colonial relationship with the PI is (probably) getting imperialized by someone, and odds are:

1) Spain
2) Germany
3) Japan

None of which do a lot for an independent Philippines - the Japanese, especially.

Best,

The Philippines was already in a path of alliance with the Japanese as proven with the OTL Philippine-American war.

Spain wont even have the capacity nor the resources to retake the Philippines by 1899.

Germany needs to have a safe port to ferry in at least 200,000 troops to actually succeed just like how USA did it.

Korea is not a good pattern with the Philippines. Everybody keeps forgetting Philippines is a western/Hispanic nation. Not a backward Asian nation who doesnt have a modern standing army.

USA lost more troops in the Philippine-American war vs Philippines than the Spanish-American war vs Spain in OTL.
 
Anymore opinions?

How will the Americans react to the Filipinos suddenly attacking Manila w/o their knowledge?

Some US officials are a little annoyed, but most of them breathe a sigh of relief because they no longer have to deal with the mess of annexing and running a colony. The US recognizes the independence of the Philippines, signs a mutual defense treaty with them, and builds a naval base in Subic Bay.
 

Driftless

Donor
Anymore opinions?

How will the Americans react to the Filipinos suddenly attacking Manila w/o their knowledge?

Some US officials are a little annoyed, but most of them breathe a sigh of relief because they no longer have to deal with the mess of annexing and running a colony. The US recognizes the independence of the Philippines, signs a mutual defense treaty with them, and builds a naval base in Subic Bay.

First of all, no one said the requirement is a stable Philippines. We all know Luna and Aguinaldo will have to fight out eventually with an 1898 PoD with or without independence.

Sulu wasnt even part of the Philippines at this time around.

Negros recognized the Malolos republic, which was a federal republic. Besides Luzon, the rest of the Philippines are just not populated nor have the resources to become independent or resist any Foreign power without help from Luzon. There was a very large population disparity back then by region. Wherein other islands average few thousands while you had millions in Luzon.

So if we put your scenario that everyone in Visayas and Mindanao breaks away from malolos republic for whatever reason, they can be easily taken by any foreign power even third rate foreign powers including Spain.

IF US involvement is limited to an agreement with the new Philippine Republic for a naval station at Subic, what happens in the situation that Namayan describes?
 
Anymore opinions?

How will the Americans react to the Filipinos suddenly attacking Manila w/o their knowledge?

USA will have a harder time to think about conquering the Philippines. USA business interests may think twice to lobby for invasion. It will take more resources and troops to gain beach head without Manila for USA. So now, the cost will be greater than the reward for the USA when invading Luzon.
 
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