What if Abe Lincoln had lived?

Define lived.

1. Shot in the head as per OTL, but survives.

2. Shot at, but only mildly injured.

3. Shot at and not injured at all.

4. Decides not to go to Ford's Theatre

etc.

This could interpreted in a number of ways and the preferred interpretation will have distinct set of butterflies.
 
Hm, so many PoDs..

1. FLOTUS has another migrane attack and Lincoln, not wanting to upset mary by bringing another woman, brings another military guest--originally Grant was to attend but declined or otherwise couldnt attend--so you could in fact have a possibly dual-POD--with Grant in attendance and being as much a personification of Union and Northerm military, he shoots Grant instead of Lincoln :eek:

2. The gun misfires or completley fails to go off, either (a) missing Lincoln altogether or (b) giving Major Rathbone time to intervene more directly in preventing him from being shot at all.

3. A Pinkerton/security detail is stationed at the entrance to the box and detains/disrupts JWB altogether.

I'm certain others can think of more of course but this is all just spit balling
 
Well, Lincoln may not have been long for the world anyway. Every few decades a new theory comes out about a horrible disease that possibly affected him-it used to be Marfan's syndrome, but the latest fashion is Multiple Endocrine Neoplasma. Assuming this last diagnosis is true, Lincoln had an unusual longevity for the disease and would be very unlikely to see 60. If he had Marfan's syndrome after all, cardiovascular disease would probably keep him from reaching a ripe old age.

Without an assassination he obviously would not have reached the level of martyrdom he did IOTL, but an early death from disease would still arouse sympathy from the people of the U.S.
 
Long term he might be viewed differently. Since he was assassinated, he's seen as a war president and a martyr. Without his assassination, the critical years of 1865 - 1868 would be factored into his legacy, and they may or may not be viewed positively by history.

Short term, the bullshit of the Johnson years would have been avoided and reconstruction would have had a strong start.
 
Well, Lincoln may not have been long for the world anyway. Every few decades a new theory comes out about a horrible disease that possibly affected him-it used to be Marfan's syndrome, but the latest fashion is Multiple Endocrine Neoplasma. Assuming this last diagnosis is true, Lincoln had an unusual longevity for the disease and would be very unlikely to see 60. If he had Marfan's syndrome after all, cardiovascular disease would probably keep him from reaching a ripe old age.

Without an assassination he obviously would not have reached the level of martyrdom he did IOTL, but an early death from disease would still arouse sympathy from the people of the U.S.


Could still have been long enough to matter.

If Lincoln has managed to satisfy the Republicans in Congress - eg by insisting on the enfranchisement of literate Blacks and Coloured Union veterans, then the South may well have been readmitted before his death. If Johnson comes in after that, say late 1866 or early '67, then it's too late for him to reverse these measures, and he's just an historical footnote, keeping the seat warm for President Grant.
 
1. FLOTUS has another migrane attack and Lincoln, not wanting to upset mary by bringing another woman, brings another military guest--originally Grant was to attend but declined or otherwise couldnt attend--so you could in fact have a possibly dual-POD--with Grant in attendance and being as much a personification of Union and Northerm military, he shoots Grant instead of Lincoln :eek:

This is an interesting theory, with Grant being shot in 1865, leads to the question of who takes the Republican Ticket in 1868:

  • Does Lincoln become the first third term president?
  • Does Hannibal Hamlin, as the only Republican Vice President, get the ticket?
  • Does one of the two Ohio big wigs, Chief Justice Salmon P. Chase or Senator Benjamin Wade fight for the office?
  • Do they stay safe and pick either Speaker Schuyler Colfax of Indiana or Senator Henry Wilson of Massachusetts
  • Do they pick southern, James Speed of Kentucky to become Vice President to balance the Ticket?
 
If Lincoln survives with minimal or no injuries, you will see a very different Reconstruction. On the one hand, Lincoln favored a milder Reconstruction than the radical Republicans wanted, but on the other hand Johnson was much more willing to let the south get away with a lot of things that vitiated emancipation and set the stage for Jim Crow etc. Labor contracts that were basically debt peonage, groups like the Klan and White Camellia among others, the loss of voting rights all might be altered in a good way with a Lincoln directed Reconstruction. Certainly the issue of who controls the cabinet that lead to the impeachment trial of Johnson won't occur with Lincoln in office, that would be settled in favor of the president (as it was OTL) without the impeachment.

While Reconstruction won't be a paradise for the freed slaves under any circumstance, I expect things will be better if Lincoln lives as you won't have a president and a congress that are 180 degrees out from each other. Sure there are differences but not as bad as it was OTL. I think Lincoln will still be a major hero, although the halo of martyrdom won't be there.

I personally tend more to the Marfan's Syndrome, rather than multiple endocrine neoplasia as Lincoln's medical issue. Details are technical, but good odds he will live to finish out his 2nd term. 3rd term, he won't run - no crisis like depression/WWII to allow for 3rd term against tradition unlike FDR.
 
This is an interesting theory, with Grant being shot in 1865, leads to the question of who takes the Republican Ticket in 1868:

  • Does Lincoln become the first third term president?
  • Does Hannibal Hamlin, as the only Republican Vice President, get the ticket?
  • Does one of the two Ohio big wigs, Chief Justice Salmon P. Chase or Senator Benjamin Wade fight for the office?
  • Do they stay safe and pick either Speaker Schuyler Colfax of Indiana or Senator Henry Wilson of Massachusetts
  • Do they pick southern, James Speed of Kentucky to become Vice President to balance the Ticket?

Interesting indeed, thanks. I suspect as noted above, I believe Lincoln might not wish to continue the mental ad or/physical burden of the Presidency. Chase's political career was, I believe, basically D.O.A and I doubt he would attempt a trade of careers with a lack of support for his candidacy. I'm afraid I don't rightly know enough of the candidates you've specified but I suspect the a Southern POTUS would be a dicey proposition.
 
I'll assume for the sake of discussion that Lincoln (and his wife) survive with little/no harm (for whatever reason up to and including the opening credits to Police Squad!)

  • Coin toss as to whether or not Lincoln dies of natural causes before the end of his second term. I would probably bet on "dies of natural causes." (He is still seen as one of the greatest Presidents.)
  • I have always assumed that Reconstruction would be more favorable to the freed slaves, but I cannot really say how. That may reduce the extent of the migrations north in the closing decades of the 19th Century.
  • He will certainly work better with the Congress than did Johnson.
 
This is an interesting theory, with Grant being shot in 1865, leads to the question of who takes the Republican Ticket in 1868:


If Grant had been there, the sentry would never have dared to leave his post. You couldn't take liberties with him as you could with Lincoln. So with Grant there, we almost certainly don't get any assassination at all.

I know of no evidence that Lincoln was even considering a third term. The last photo of him makes me wonder if he'd even have lived through his second.
 
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