What if a Sykes-Picot-Sazonov partition of Ottomans *before* Sarajevo 1914?

raharris1973

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You can't say "oh we're just going to carve up the empire!"

In OTL it only happened because the Ottomans had suffered a defeat after 4 years of war and the areas in question had all been invaded, stirring up local passions
 
I'm not saying the scenario cannot be played out to end like this in 1912 etc, but it has to get there

The Bulgarians taking Constantinople look like the best bet of the almost-happened variety to ramp up the OTL crisis
 

raharris1973

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I'm not saying the scenario cannot be played out to end like this in 1912 etc, but it has to get there

The Bulgarians taking Constantinople look like the best bet of the almost-happened variety to ramp up the OTL crisis

I get your point. And I would be tempted to look into the impact of Bulgaria getting into the city.

But that's where the people who inconveniently know too much of the real history start to say the Bulgarians never really came close. ;)
 
What if the Entente seek everything the got in Sykes picot sazonov and then told the Germans, Austrians and Italians they could divvy up the leftovers, which are basically Western Asia Minor, south of the straits?

A world war.

So, during the 1st Balkan War many higher ups in all the great powers where concerned that the ottoman Empire would collapse, particularly if the Bulgarians took Constantinople, and laid out plans for what they wanted in the event of a partition. In Spring of 1913 the Russian mobilized their army in Eastern Anatolia, ready to invade Ottoman Armenia. So the scenario you propose is not wholly unlikely, but what is impossible is only the Entente getting the all the good stuff.

The thing is, the Germans had become VERY involved in the Ottoman Empire in the preceding years. They had recently sent a military mission to help train the Ottoman Army. Deutsche Bank had obtained the huge Baghdad Railway concession. They controlled a massive amount of the Ottoman national debt. A German sphere of influence was already clearly developing in Mesopotamia and Adana by 1912. The Kaiser sent a squadron of ships to the Mediterranean in 1913 to assert German interests. You really think the Germans would sit by and let other powers take control of a region they have huge investments in?

"We must play close attention that partition does not happen without us. I will take Mesopotamia, Alexandretta, and Mersin. The sensible Turks are already awaiting this fate patiently." - Kaiser Wilhelm II, 1913 (yes he actually said this)
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In the Event of Partition, the Germans would demand the area straddling the Red line (which is the DB railway concession), and if they could, Basra and the area around the blue line too (earlier section of the railroad). Now this "blue area" is part of West Asia Minor, but they don't care about Western Asia Minor in the slightest if they can't get the regions around the red line. Mesopotamia and Adana is what is most important to them.

If they don't get this, they won't support the partition, and will conclude an alliance with the ottomans (Austria-Hungry too), starting a European war.
 

raharris1973

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I wonder if a starting point for this concept could come during the Italo-Turkish war itself.

There was an interesting thread awhile back where the Italians tried to do more than just conquer the sandbox of Libya, they also went after Yemen and Albania.

Might more extensive pushing by the Italians put the empire's survival more in doubt. Especially any Italian attempts to gain territory in the Arabian peninsula. As in the other thread, Yemen could be the target, or the Italians could try to grab another sandbox, but in the Persian Gulf, the al-hasaa province (current day eastern province Saudi Arabia)? That activates British concern and makes the British do a preemptive occupation of Basra and Mesopotamia more generally, and then the Russians do a preemptive occupation of Armenia (and the straits if they can pull it off), and it spirals on from there.
 
I wonder if a starting point for this concept could come during the Italo-Turkish war itself.

There was an interesting thread awhile back where the Italians tried to do more than just conquer the sandbox of Libya, they also went after Yemen and Albania.

Might more extensive pushing by the Italians put the empire's survival more in doubt. Especially any Italian attempts to gain territory in the Arabian peninsula. As in the other thread, Yemen could be the target, or the Italians could try to grab another sandbox, but in the Persian Gulf, the al-hasaa province (current day eastern province Saudi Arabia)? That activates British concern and makes the British do a preemptive occupation of Basra and Mesopotamia more generally, and then the Russians do a preemptive occupation of Armenia (and the straits if they can pull it off), and it spirals on from there.

I don't think Yemen is possible. The British control access to the Red Sea via the Suez Canal, and they aren't going to allow the Italians to simply sail through and take it, they'd grab it first. This holds true for other areas in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, Italy simply wont be allowed near them. More of North Africa might be possible. I'll have to dig around a bit later to see what I can find in some books here.
 
I wonder if a starting point for this concept could come during the Italo-Turkish war itself.

There was an interesting thread awhile back where the Italians tried to do more than just conquer the sandbox of Libya, they also went after Yemen and Albania.

Might more extensive pushing by the Italians put the empire's survival more in doubt. Especially any Italian attempts to gain territory in the Arabian peninsula. As in the other thread, Yemen could be the target, or the Italians could try to grab another sandbox, but in the Persian Gulf, the al-hasaa province (current day eastern province Saudi Arabia)? That activates British concern and makes the British do a preemptive occupation of Basra and Mesopotamia more generally, and then the Russians do a preemptive occupation of Armenia (and the straits if they can pull it off), and it spirals on from there.

Austria would go to war with Italy over Albania. Austria would see it as Italy closing off the adriatic and not accept it.
 

raharris1973

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I don't think Yemen is possible. The British control access to the Red Sea via the Suez Canal, and they aren't going to allow the Italians to simply sail through and take it, they'd grab it first. This holds true for other areas in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, Italy simply wont be allowed near them. More of North Africa might be possible. I'll have to dig around a bit later to see what I can find in some books here.

The Italians had territory, and ships, on the Red Sea and next to the Arabian sea, they were were called Eritrea and Somalia. The Suez Canal was under British control when Italy originally took them too, so they must have let the Italians use it for that.
 
The Italians had territory, and ships, on the Red Sea and next to the Arabian sea, they were were called Eritrea and Somalia. The Suez Canal was under British control when Italy originally took them too, so they must have let the Italians use it for that.

I stand corrected. The British did indeed allow the Italians to go through the Canal. However taking Yemen gives Italy ports on both sides of the entrance to the Red Sea, and that makes it possible for them to stop traffic to the Canal, and poses a threat to Aden. That's too much IMO for the British to even consider.
 

raharris1973

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I stand corrected. The British did indeed allow the Italians to go through the Canal. However taking Yemen gives Italy ports on both sides of the entrance to the Red Sea, and that makes it possible for them to stop traffic to the Canal, and poses a threat to Aden. That's too much IMO for the British to even consider.

Yeah, that's why I prefer the Italian target in Ottoman Asia to be the Ottoman Gulf Coast, south of Kuwait, al-Hasaa. Assuming Britain had a "nobody gets two sides of the same strait" rule, it does not cross that redline.
 
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