What if a North Korean missile hit Seoul?

[Korean]

I was wondering for some time but what would happen if a North Korean missile or short artillery barrage hit Seoul?
This would be a short attack and North Korea would not have used its nuclear weapons?
Would the South Koreans bomb North Korea's capital in response?
How would the Americans and Chinese react?
I would imagine that the South Koreans would launch a counter attack on several locations in the North but would not declare war.
While the Americans would rush more military units to South Korea.

 

[Tales Weaver]

That would mean DPRK declare war on every nation. It has too many embassies and foreigners there.

Furthermore, Which goal would they try to achieve in bombing seoul? again 1950?

 

[CaliGuy]

I would imagine that the South Koreans would launch a counter attack on several locations in the North but would not declare war.

Agreed with this; after all, South Korea and the U.S. would probably prefer to avoid the risk of all-out war--including with nuclear weapons--if at all possible.

If North Korea responds to the U.S./South Korean strikes with all-out war, though, then say hello to the Pyongyang Liberation Committee.

 

[mlp]

Then we're fucked. This will likely not come singly but be part of a massive campaign where NK throws everything it has against us. That most likely includes nuclear/biological/chemical weapons.
The retaliation wouldn't just end with Pyongyang, NK will be annihilated by ROK/US. Involving a massive US military concentration on the Korean peninsula.

 

[yulzari]

As a long shot China, Russia and USA might arrange terms for them all to remove the problem which embarrasses all of them by a joint action on agreed terms.

 

[cladglas]

Then we're fucked. This will likely not come singly but be part of a massive campaign where NK throws everything it has against us. That most likely includes nuclear/biological/chemical weapons.
The retaliation wouldn't just end with Pyongyang, NK will be annihilated by ROK/US. Involving a massive US military concentration on the Korean peninsula.

don't expect that. think more like an army/marine division equivalent, some aviation, and a bunch of air power. the rest is all on the home team.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Why would they do that? Bombarding Yeonpyeong Island was ballsy as hell, especially not even a year after the Cheonan sinking. North Korea can get away with something like that and not invite all-out war, and they know it.

But shooting a missile at Seoul would go beyond the pale. At best, they can expect a massive strike on many, if not all, the known artillery positions on the DMZ. If they want to escalate further, well, they know what's coming. This is why that any strike on Seoul is going to be the first action of the Second Korean War, and be a hell of a lot more than a few missiles or an artillery barrage. North Korea knows they have to unload everything (including NBC weapons) they have on Seoul and other cities directly beyond the DMZ, because it's either all or nothing, since most anything beyond nothing that isn't like the ROKS Cheonan sinking or the Yeonpyeong battles will result in open warfare and their destruction.

 

[GarethC]

A single BM-21 Grad battery fires thirty rockets across the border (decades-old equpiment develops a fault and the electrical firing circuit shorts live during a drill).
The rockets are unguided and barely-aimed - the centre of the CEP is a Hyundai car dealership; the majority of casualties come from one rocket which hits a McDonalds.
ROKA air-search and counter-battery radar actually picks up the volley in flight. A battery of 155mm howitzers engages the launch point, opening fire before the NK rockets have landed. The counterfire is a TOT mission, killing some 4 DPRK soldiers and destroying a launcher vehicle.
The KPAGF rocket artillery colonel reports that he has been attacked by American artillery and has counterfired but requests support.
The request goes all the way up the chain to Kim Jong-Un, who instead has the colonel shot along with the survivors of the rocket battery.
ROK media make a great deal of an unprovoked attack that has killed over forty people, the majority of whom were waiting to order lunch (including a class of eleven-year olds on a field trip).
North Korean media dismisses the transparent tissue of lies by the capitalist running-dog lickspittle oppressors of the people who, having been defeated in an artillery duel after treacherously sneak-attacking the heroic defenders of juche, would then go and have the KCIA plant a bomb in a restaurant, deliberately and callously sacrificing the lives of their own innocent children to deceive the world in an American-led false-flag operation.
China starts to provide more spares and technicians to maintain and update the DPRK's military.

 

[Catsmate]

A single BM-21 Grad battery fires thirty rockets across the border (decades-old equpiment develops a fault and the electrical firing circuit shorts live during a drill).

Doesn't have the range to hit Seoul from the DPRK side of the border.

 

[fastmongrel]

The Chinese shit bricks and say everything is fine nothing to see here before smacking Kim Jong-Un down so hard his teeth rattle.

Donald Trump is given a shiny thing to play with whilst the grown ups have long talks with Beijing to make sure no one starts pulling anymore triggers.

The European Union does what it does best and does nothing because the Germans want to sell cars to China.

Every other democracy in the region starts wondering if they can afford a bigger defence budget.