What if a 9-11 style attack on WTC succeeded in 1995?

raharris1973

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WI such a plot occurred and was linked to Bin Laden?

This was before his Afghanistan years, he was still based in Sudan at the time.
 

samcster94

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WI such a plot occurred and was linked to Bin Laden?

This was before his Afghanistan years, he was still based in Sudan at the time.
The dictator of Sudan was already in power at that time, which would make conflict likely. It'd butterfly away Afghanistan of course. Bill Clinton being President would probably make it probably somewhat better organized and a second war being started a year later is unlikely in TTL.
 
There was a plot to blow up the twin towers in the early 1990s, I think it was 1993, that got as far as killing half a dozen people. There has to have been a thread here somewhere on what if that plot had succeeded.
 

kernals12

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For one thing, the rally around the flag moment sends Clinton to a landslide re-election against Dole. And we probably go to war with Sudan.
 
For one thing, the rally around the flag moment sends Clinton to a landslide re-election against Dole. And we probably go to war with Sudan.

Change that to virtually certainly go to war with Sudan. The only way to avoid it is for Sudan to hand over OBL and probably make some other concessions. What they would be I have no real idea.
 

raharris1973

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There was a plot to blow up the twin towers in the early 1990s, I think it was 1993, that got as far as killing half a dozen people. There has to have been a thread here somewhere on what if that plot had succeeded.


There probably has been, but that would not have been linked with Bin Laden, nor would Bojinka. And to my knowledge, would not have been linked to Sudan or any other state sanctuary.
 

raharris1973

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So @Johnrankins , @samcster94 and @kernals12 :

What is this war with Sudan, and its aftermath, going to look like?

Earlier split offs of South Sudan and maybe Darfur?

Or the US trying to hold it all together for 15 years or more?

Also, is a war really guaranteed? After all, Sudanese leadership was pragmatic enough to expel Bin Laden in 1996, and reportedly, offered to hand him over at that time.

If the Sudanese were ready to say "yes" to US handover ultimatum, could the US take yes for an answer, or would that seem insufficient retribution at the time?

Also, if it came to war or a pressure campaign on Sudan, I see Egypt being an important coalition partner.

At a minimum, Sudan was supporting Gamaa Islamiyah terrorists at this point, and depending on when in the year the PoD is, the assassination attempt against Mubarak in Addis Ababa, linked to Sudan, might have already occurred.
 

raharris1973

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For one thing, the rally around the flag moment sends Clinton to a landslide re-election against Dole.

Might the Republicans have made any political capital about Clinton and the Dems being "soft" and second guessed him at every turn? They might criticize him even louder if he makes an ultimatum to Sudan and Sudan submits, not giving the US a chance to unleash military might in any significant way.

This was after the class of 1994, so the GOP had already cast off prior political restraints and was a very aggressive, parliamentary style slash and burn party.

I think it makes Forbes an irrelevant candidate, and probably Perot and isolationist Buchanan as well. So Dole with WWII experience becomes even more favored for nomination. Unless people look at his age and somehow support in the GOP ends up gravitating to Kemp or someone else.
 
So @Johnrankins , @samcster94 and @kernals12 :

What is this war with Sudan, and its aftermath, going to look like?

Earlier split offs of South Sudan and maybe Darfur?

Or the US trying to hold it all together for 15 years or more?

Also, is a war really guaranteed? After all, Sudanese leadership was pragmatic enough to expel Bin Laden in 1996, and reportedly, offered to hand him over at that time.

If the Sudanese were ready to say "yes" to US handover ultimatum, could the US take yes for an answer, or would that seem insufficient retribution at the time?

Also, if it came to war or a pressure campaign on Sudan, I see Egypt being an important coalition partner.

At a minimum, Sudan was supporting Gamaa Islamiyah terrorists at this point, and depending on when in the year the PoD is, the assassination attempt against Mubarak in Addis Ababa, linked to Sudan, might have already occurred.

Handing off OBL and the rest of AQ might just starve off retribution but they might be required to allow us to build a naval or air base as well. We wouldn't look for money I don't think as Sudan is a starving wasteland as is. As far as the war is concerned I think we would get rid of the government and then leave. The important message to send everyone is that if they harbor terrorists active against the US you can expect a visit from the US military.
 

raharris1973

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Handing off OBL and the rest of AQ might just starve off retribution but they might be required to allow us to build a naval or air base as well. We wouldn't look for money I don't think as Sudan is a starving wasteland as is. As far as the war is concerned I think we would get rid of the government and then leave. The important message to send everyone is that if they harbor terrorists active against the US you can expect a visit from the US military.

What if we got rid of the government fairly quickly but Bin laden remained at large and in Africa for years?
 

raharris1973

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If Usama were not handed over outright by the regime, and got to go into hiding, would it be easier or harder for him to hide than in OTL? Can he live on the lam for almost ten years?
 
Change that to virtually certainly go to war with Sudan. The only way to avoid it is for Sudan to hand over OBL and probably make some other concessions. What they would be I have no real idea.
Given what America just did to the Iraq army in Kuwait, and what it was doing in former Yugoslavia, I think it's plausible for Sudan to agree to hand him over - and to allow limited US forces into his nation with the intention of finding him if they can't do it immediately.

Another major change of having pseudo-911 happen under Clinton is whether he'd use article 5 of the NATO treaty. GWB decided not to, and in hindsight that caused a few problems later. I get the impression Clinton was a little more diplomatic. Speaking of which, I can't see Clinton going after Iraq, or any other target, and instead focusing exclusively on finding and killing OSB and his commanders and organisation. With the US focused on that, and NATO offering a lot more help, Clinton might be able to carry this off as a limited war with a very clear end goal. And then actually end it when that goal is achieved.

Though he'd probably end up accidentally acquiring Sudan as a 'close ally'. Possibly involving another overseas base for the military to look after (something something strategic airlift node something) and probably a prolonged commitment to technical and financial assistance for Sudan's infrastructure. Which might not be the worst thing in the world, especially if it prevents the civil war that happens ~20 years later.
 

raharris1973

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Actually the U.S. did invoke article 5, or US NATO allies said this was an article 5 event on their own, as some allied air forces started providing some civil air patrols in North American airspace in the days right after 9/11
 

raharris1973

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Another effect is that Pakistan receives much less aid from the US and has less leverage over it, without an Afghan war. But the US also has fewer demands to place on Afghanistan. Since Sudan has its own Red Sea shore and ports, no country gains a comparable amount of leverage over the US in Africa. Egypt comes the closest because of Suez, but Egypt will probably be satisfied with US-imposed solutions on Sudan.

If there is a US war in Sudan, or extended operations, as opposed to a quickly successful ultimatum or expedition, the US may establish AFRICOM ten years earlier than OTL.
 
There was a plot to blow up the twin towers in the early 1990s, I think it was 1993, that got as far as killing half a dozen people. There has to have been a thread here somewhere on what if that plot had succeeded.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...nd-revenge-an-alternate-9-11-timeline.317244/

The Twin Towers, Hollywood, and the Las Vegas strip (and one or two spots in the Middle East? I can't remember) get hit with suitcase nukes in February 1993.
 
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