WI such a plot occurred and was linked to Bin Laden?
This was before his Afghanistan years, he was still based in Sudan at the time.
This was before his Afghanistan years, he was still based in Sudan at the time.
The dictator of Sudan was already in power at that time, which would make conflict likely. It'd butterfly away Afghanistan of course. Bill Clinton being President would probably make it probably somewhat better organized and a second war being started a year later is unlikely in TTL.WI such a plot occurred and was linked to Bin Laden?
This was before his Afghanistan years, he was still based in Sudan at the time.
For one thing, the rally around the flag moment sends Clinton to a landslide re-election against Dole. And we probably go to war with Sudan.
There was a plot to blow up the twin towers in the early 1990s, I think it was 1993, that got as far as killing half a dozen people. There has to have been a thread here somewhere on what if that plot had succeeded.
For one thing, the rally around the flag moment sends Clinton to a landslide re-election against Dole.
So @Johnrankins , @samcster94 and @kernals12 :
What is this war with Sudan, and its aftermath, going to look like?
Earlier split offs of South Sudan and maybe Darfur?
Or the US trying to hold it all together for 15 years or more?
Also, is a war really guaranteed? After all, Sudanese leadership was pragmatic enough to expel Bin Laden in 1996, and reportedly, offered to hand him over at that time.
If the Sudanese were ready to say "yes" to US handover ultimatum, could the US take yes for an answer, or would that seem insufficient retribution at the time?
Also, if it came to war or a pressure campaign on Sudan, I see Egypt being an important coalition partner.
At a minimum, Sudan was supporting Gamaa Islamiyah terrorists at this point, and depending on when in the year the PoD is, the assassination attempt against Mubarak in Addis Ababa, linked to Sudan, might have already occurred.
Handing off OBL and the rest of AQ might just starve off retribution but they might be required to allow us to build a naval or air base as well. We wouldn't look for money I don't think as Sudan is a starving wasteland as is. As far as the war is concerned I think we would get rid of the government and then leave. The important message to send everyone is that if they harbor terrorists active against the US you can expect a visit from the US military.
What if we got rid of the government fairly quickly but Bin laden remained at large and in Africa for years?
Use the CIA to track him down and kill him as in OTL.
Sure, but in OTL, that was accompanied by a whole counterinsurgency and stabilization campaign for Afghanistan.
Might the same happen for Sudan?
Given what America just did to the Iraq army in Kuwait, and what it was doing in former Yugoslavia, I think it's plausible for Sudan to agree to hand him over - and to allow limited US forces into his nation with the intention of finding him if they can't do it immediately.Change that to virtually certainly go to war with Sudan. The only way to avoid it is for Sudan to hand over OBL and probably make some other concessions. What they would be I have no real idea.
There was a plot to blow up the twin towers in the early 1990s, I think it was 1993, that got as far as killing half a dozen people. There has to have been a thread here somewhere on what if that plot had succeeded.