What if 9.11 never happened?

Some claim that right wing populism both in the US and in Europe got a shot in the arm on 9.11.01. Because prior to 9.11.01 right wing populism both in Europe and US was a most fringe of society. But after 9.11 many of said populist parties in Europe like Front National, AFD, Danish Peoples Parti were able to say, see we were right al long. And post 9.11.01 elections in Denmark, Belgium, Italy saw populist parties surge in those country. Plus in U.S. suddenly saying something negativ about followers of Islam and seeing muslim boggiemen everywhere was suddenly not only isolated to right-wing extremist groups. But with even some Republican and Democrat Senators openly expressing anti-immigration, anti-islam views.

So I wonder if 9.11.01 never happened could this in theory have prevented a surge in right-wing populism? Both in the US and W.Europe? Because without 9.11.01 there in theory wouldn't be a catalyst for right wing populism?
with a great recession happening roughly on schedule, you'd still see a negative-sum/zero-sum environment

I could actually see arguments for significantly stronger rightwing populism in the US without 9/11 because 1) discourse more focused on ah domestic issues 2) No Bush trying to keep the right-wing populists down/prop up the globalist nature of the existing GOP with stuff like "islam is the religion of peace" so without those 2 potentially significantly stronger RW populism imo
Going by the OP's premise, I think this thread may be better suited for Chat.
Well it's been over 15 years..

The premises would be how would the world be now with out 9/11.

9/11 made an America that still can't phantom might makes right even though we have now been engaged In a war for +18 years.

Would Americans be so coxky and rash had it not taken place?

I don't think 9/11 is the cause of right wing extremism at all. That is from greed and a combination of bad policies, and economic inequalities.

However say 9/11 didn't happen.

Would the USA under GW keep progressing? Stagnation was looking us in the face.

Obviously we are not going to run up massive debts to have a war to out last all wars.

Look at the leaders elected since, look at everyone tearing the establishment apart, I'm not a big fan of alot of politicians, but many since Clinton. Okay each and every are getting clobbered. The current one is complaining he is being singled out, when in fact each are and have been.

So does no 9/11 make many in the west more rational and calm?

Does no 9/11 have an effect on the financial crisis and timing.

Does the republican wave stall or get stronger.

It's legit
The Bush administration was thinking about a war with Iraq long before 9/11. What it gave them was an excuse.

Though without a pointless long war in Afghanistan, the US economy would at least be in better shape to face the recession. Without a speedy victory to plant an arrogant view of Iraq, perhaps they would have gone about planning for the occupation better. Or not; the 1991 Gulf War was such a cakewalk it left many Americans feeling Iraq was a pushover.

Afghanistan would still be a mess, but it would not be one where the US is spending billions a year on something that's not going to change.