Of course in terms of a Presidential term 2003 and 2004 are rather different.
If the outrage happened in 2003 it is possible that it would be a further blow to a deeply unpopular President. I think that without the September 11, 2001 atrocity Bush and Cheney would be politically dead by 2003.
Of course if the outrage happened in the fall of 2004 either GW Bush would have secured renomination, or decided not to seek it or have failed to obtain it.
If the outrage happened in 2003 it is possible that it would be a further blow to a deeply unpopular President. I think that without the September 11, 2001 atrocity Bush and Cheney would be politically dead by 2003.
Of course if the outrage happened in the fall of 2004 either GW Bush would have secured renomination, or decided not to seek it or have failed to obtain it.