Pod. Mussolini never invades france, possibly because he believes the us is about to enter the war, or maybe the french dont collapse so fast.
He spends 18 months kicking himself for not getting a share of the spoils, but hitler says, you didnt fight, you dont get anything. Then the us enters the war, and he decides staying on the sidelines is a good idea.
Then stalingrad and midway happen, and the tide turns in favour of the allies.
Benny starts quiet, under the table negotiations with the allies. Switches sides, and dragoon replaces husky as the major allied offensive against the axis. Neither the brits nor the us are blooded yet, so its a slow slog north. Britain also insists on taking all the greek islands back, but is talked out of the peloponnese for now.
Italy remaining neutral means no north africa campaign, which means britain holds crete, and does a far better job in malaya. Keeps burma.
Oops, switch the last two paragraphs.
Logistics mean the invasion effort is slower than otl, but the earlier start helps. Meanwhile, the nazis are fighting an invasion rather than building the atlantic wall, so the wallies land in northern france, too.