What happens to Turkey after successful Treaty of Sèvres?

The exact POD doesn't matter, but as an example Ataturk and other important persons in the Turkish nationalists die in or around 1919. Eventually another turkish government becomes established in Ankara, and widely accepted as legitimate. This government accepts the Treaty of Sèvres in January of 1921.

What happens after decolonization? Is Hatay still returned to Turkey, or does it go to Syria, or to Kurdistan for a port? Does Greece try to seize more territory?

What sort of government are the Kurds likely to establish? The trend among Kurdish nationalists today is a secular, egalitarian, liberal democracy, probably a federation. Was that the case a century ago?

Will the USSR still try to annex an Armenia that is many times larger than OTL, and will the west accept that?
 
I doubt Greece will try to seize more territory, what they were given encompassed where most of the Greeks in Turkey lived. I would expect ALL Aegean islands to become Greek, and after decolonization Enosis of Cyprus with Greece is likely. Hatay to Kurdistan - logical to give them a post but? If Armenia is larger, and a nation established by treaty my bet is the USSR does not try to annex it, this is the sort of thing that might convince the UK/France to up intervention and they might protect Armenia with defense treaties. Expect an irredentist Turkey - very susceptible to Axis overtures in the run up to WWII. Turkey joining up when Italy/Germany attack Greece to get Sevres lands back is very possible, likewise Armenia and rather severe ethnic cleansing results (of course any Turkish lands ceded or taken by Greece or Armenia will rather quickly lose most if not all ethnic Turks).

If Turkey is on the Axis side in WWII, a race for the Bosphorus between the western allies and the USSR is a sure bet, and could get ugly.
 
Italy had a zone of influence in southwestern Turkey that would likely have become an Italian colony if the treaty of Serves was successful. This would be a problem for Axis Turkey, Italy - Turkish relations would be difficult. That doesn't make Axis Turkey impossible, but it is a problem that would need to be resolved.
 
The main issue is that the mandates and zones of influence were all so large that there wouldn't be much Turkey left to join the Axis.
 
I doubt Greece will try to seize more territory, what they were given encompassed where most of the Greeks in Turkey lived. I would expect ALL Aegean islands to become Greek, and after decolonization Enosis of Cyprus with Greece is likely. Hatay to Kurdistan - logical to give them a post but? If Armenia is larger, and a nation established by treaty my bet is the USSR does not try to annex it, this is the sort of thing that might convince the UK/France to up intervention and they might protect Armenia with defense treaties. Expect an irredentist Turkey - very susceptible to Axis overtures in the run up to WWII. Turkey joining up when Italy/Germany attack Greece to get Sevres lands back is very possible, likewise Armenia and rather severe ethnic cleansing results (of course any Turkish lands ceded or taken by Greece or Armenia will rather quickly lose most if not all ethnic Turks).

If Turkey is on the Axis side in WWII, a race for the Bosphorus between the western allies and the USSR is a sure bet, and could get ugly.

Butterflies will change things a long time before the 1930, but I agree that the possibility for a new world war would be at least as likely in this scenario. Here are some relevant maps about the ethnic makeup of the Ottoman Empire. There were some scattered Greek communities along all of the Anatolian coast, but in particular in the Pontus region and along the western coast. I am not certain how ethnicity is defined here. Is it mainly defined in terms of language or in terms of religion? Were the people marked as for instance Greeks, but living in Anatolia, speaking Greek and were the people marked as Turkish, but living in Greece, speaking Turkish?


Balkans, 1861:

RizMap19.jpg



Balkans, 1877:

CarlSaxET1877.jpg




Asia Minor, 1910:

800px-asiaminor1910.jpg
 

yourworstnightmare

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Turkey becomes a non-State ruled by a powerless monarch who rules from an occupied city. That was the Entente plan.

And yes, Greece tries to snatch territory, so does Italy, the problem is they try to snatch the same territory.

Britain will occupy the straits, claiming it oversees Internationalization, France will occupy much of southern Anatolia. Most of British and French occupied territory in Anatolia would be de jure Turkey, but de facto foreign occupied. Hatay would be de jure French Syria.

Armenia is an interesting case, on the one hand you have Wilsonian Armenia, on the other hand you have the DRA in the Caucasus with very limited power to annex all that land (and being ruled by Caucasian Armenians annexing Anatolian land, while very tempting, is a secondary concern), and of course the threat of the USSR looming.

And the Kurds of course. They revolted a couple of times OTL against Turkey and British Iraq during this era. There wasn't much coordination between Kurdish liberation movements though.
 
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One interesting point will be what happens between kurds and armenians since the hamidian massacres are unlikely to have been forgotten or forgiven
 
Butterflies will change things a long time before the 1930, but I agree that the possibility for a new world war would be at least as likely in this scenario. Here are some relevant maps about the ethnic makeup of the Ottoman Empire. There were some scattered Greek communities along all of the Anatolian coast, but in particular in the Pontus region and along the western coast. I am not certain how ethnicity is defined here. Is it mainly defined in terms of language or in terms of religion? Were the people marked as for instance Greeks, but living in Anatolia, speaking Greek and were the people marked as Turkish, but living in Greece, speaking Turkish?


Balkans, 1861:

RizMap19.jpg



Balkans, 1877:

CarlSaxET1877.jpg




Asia Minor, 1910:

800px-asiaminor1910.jpg

A lot of the Muslims in Greece and the Balkans spoke the same languages as the local Christians (Bulgarian, Greek, Albanian, etc.) The Cretan Turks were Greek Muslims but they identified as Turks. Not all "Greeks" spoke a Greek dialect but were Christian Turks like the Karamanlides.
 
Short term there is an enlarged Greek state and new states of Armenia and Kurdistan who would be under a Leagues of Nation mandate. Most likely, the Armenian mandate would be released once Armenia set up stable institutions since they are "white" and Christian. That might be anytime in the 1930s. Kurdistan likely would be in the same position as the other Middle Eastern mandates and not gain independence until post WWII.

Turkey will essentially be in the same position as Republican China. They will have nominal sovereignty, but one which is heavily restricted due to "treaty ports" and whatever legal mumbo jumbo is established so the foreign powers can exercise their "influence". Presumably the influence is established by subsequent treaties made by each power with the Turks within their zone of influence. Turkey will go through a long process to eventually eliminate that influence, but only after they go through a period of modernization and state building. This will take several decades.

At some point, the status of Constantinople and the Straits will be challenged - either by an empowered Greece or a revived Turkey - and will lead to a severe political crisis.

However, the initial status will probably be held for two to three decades. What happens after that depends on lots of things like the relative strength of the various countries, and the international balance of power. A lot will depend on what happens to the region as WWII approaches. If Greece can avoid getting involved in the war, then it may pass over them entirely. Italy was willing to declare war on the Greeks thinking it would be an easy conquest. In this scenario with an expanded Greece and likely more stable Greek politics (since the Megali Idea has been achieved), then Mussolini may choose to avoid war. If Greece gets invaded though, the entire area may plunge into war.
 
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