What happens to the Italian Empire if Italy stays out of WWII?

I don't think Italy would have remained neutral throughout the war, my guess is Mussolini would have waited until around 1944 to join the allies and made it a condition that Italy would be a permanent member of the UN security council with a veto. Also, I wouldn't rule out Italy becoming a nuclear power by the 1950s. These two things would have cemented Italy's "great power" status in the post-war world.

With this turn of events, Italy could have easily controlled its empire indefinitely. Portugal was able to hang on to its empire until 1975, so Italy with 6 times as many people and an economy 9 times larger than Portugal's could have easily held on to theirs longer. Also, Portugal had to cope with an arms embargo that limited the equipment they could use in their colonies. Italy on the other hand is a major arms producer with the ability to field a much larger army.

To defend itself, Italy would have been drawn to an alliance with France in the 1950s as Italy would try to keep Algeria and especially Djibouti from falling into hostile hands. I'd imagine with fascism being seen as distinct from Nazism that DeGaulle and Mussolini could see themselves as the "third force" leading an alternate bloc of countries. I can see this bloc including Portugal, Spain, Argentina, Brazil and possibly Turkey or Bulgaria (if they manage to stay out of the war).

Israel would be another important ally, especially after 1956. If Italy keeps Libya, they'd incur the wrath of the Arab countries, making the two countries natural allies. Perhaps with a staunch ally on the security council there would be no pressure for Israel to make peace with Egypt and to keep the Sinai. Unlike the United States, Italy would make have no qualms of offending the Arab bloc. The two countries can share technology and intelligence and keep Egypt in check.

Another set of allies would be the ideologically similar Portugal as well as South Africa and to a lesser extent post-UDI Rhodesia. This would have repercussions on Africa as Italy would be able to openly sell arms to these countries without worrying about UN sanctions and not caring about the opinion of the Afro-Asian bloc. This would especially be invaluable to Portugal which in OTL in 1939 had allowed the Italians to build an airport in Cape Verde, perhaps for more direct assistance they would have allowed the Italians to have an airbase there.

Here's an analysis of the Italian colonies:

Libya was already considered an integral part of Italy and in 1940 the Italians accounted for 12% of the population. Even though mass settlement schemes had only begun in 1938, Libya had the same percentage of settlers as French Algeria after over a century of French rule. Mussolini's plans were much more ambitious and by 1960 there were to be 500,000 agricultural settlers in Libya. Italians were already a slight majority in the cities and with the discovery of oil there would be many more Italian settlers pouring into the Tripoli and Benghazi. The Italian population would have likely exceeded the Arab population by the early 1970s and I'd imagine that poor Libyans would start to migrate to Northern Italy, just as the Arab Algerians had done starting in the 1950s. Th Arab population would be much lower since in OTL Libya has relied heavily on immigration from other Arab countries to boost their population, I'd imagine the Italians would shy away from importing more Arabs into the colony.

Italian East Africa would have been a bigger challenge to keep. Maintaing this huge colony rests on keeping the Suez canal open, and expect Italy to take part in the Suez campaign of 1956. Also, I'd imagine Nasser's Egypt would be hostile to the Italians and harbour any Libyan rebels. This would probably draw Italy and Israel into an alliance. Also, to keep air routes open, I'd imagine Italy would try to setup a puppet government in Sudan after 1955 or actively support the Southern Sudanese in their civil war against the North.

Mussolini had huge plans for East Africa, and was able to send encourage the settlement of 190,000 Italians in 5 short years. In contrast, Southern Rhodesia would only achieve that number of settlers in 1957 after 67 years of British rule. Eritrea had some 90,000 Italian settlers alone and Asmara had a European majority (by comparison at their peak whites only were 12% of Nairobi's population). I'd imagine that by 1960 there would be over 1 million Italians in the territory, a large enough minority that they'd demand that Italy protect them from majority rule. This would inevitably lead to a protracted guerilla war, with the insurgents being supplied by the Soviet Union and China with and possibly using Kenya as a base.

Albania was mentioned earlier, and I'd imagine that this would be the toughest place to subdue. With its mountainous terrain it could have been very difficult for the Italians to keep hold of. I'd like to think that in this timeline Mussolini has some sort of sanity around 1937 or 1938 and doesn't bother annexing Albania. King Zog's Albania was already friendly to the Italians and would have been much better as an ally than as a occupied protectorate. The Dodecanese Islands would inevitably caused some friction with Greece which is why I see the Italians being friendly with Turkey, Bulgaria and an unoccupied Albania instead.

Finally, I could imagine Italy would act a bit like a great power if attacked. Meaning that if Kenya or Sudan sought to supply pro-independence movements that they'd have to deal with air strikes. In OTL Tanzania's Julius Nyrere was a major backer of the southern African liberation movements and Tanzania could become a target for Italian reprisals. Jomo Kenyatta would probably be a bit more pragmatic and not want to be too brash with the Italians.
 

Teleology

Banned
Italian North Africa is seen as a lost cause to everyone outside of the Islamic world, and by the time that becomes significant the majority Italian population being targeted with foreign terrorism won't attract much sympathy.

Italian West Africa though...I imagine there being huge international pressure to free Ethiopia. The struggle for liberation in the 60's results in a militant form of Rastafarianism (even though the Emperor always denied divinity in OTL and was not himself Rastafarian, the deification of such a symbol of nationhood and resistance would be politically expedient for the liberation front and for the Pan-African movement; which would have one place in Africa where the majority of the Western powers are not going to raise a voice against agitation against the colonialism).

Italy hangs on to Somaliland maybe, but it's a mess as Rastafari and Islamic insurgents filter in.
 
Italian North Africa is as safe as being Italian. Only Ethiopia has a strong chance of probably ending up being given its independence.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Donor
I do foresee Italians fighting guerillas on several occassions though. There would probably be Libyan, Ethiopian, Oromo and Somalian "freedom fighters" rising on several occassons. If British and French Somaliland goes independent, Somali insurgents would probably use those nations as bases for attacks on Italian Somaliland.
 
I do foresee Italians fighting guerillas on several occassions though. There would probably be Libyan, Ethiopian, Oromo and Somalian "freedom fighters" rising on several occassons. If British and French Somaliland goes independent, Somali insurgents would probably use those nations as bases for attacks on Italian Somaliland.

That depends how Italy's non-involvement changes WWII. You pretty much butterfly a lot of the combat operations in North Africa.
 
I do foresee Italians fighting guerrillas on several occasions though. There would probably be Libyan, Ethiopian, Oromo and Somalian "freedom fighters" rising on several occasions. If British and French Somaliland goes independent, Somali insurgents would probably use those nations as bases for attacks on Italian Somaliland.

There would probably be various liberation groups fighting against not only the Italians, but each other due to the various ethnic and religious groups in a territory as large and diverse as Italian East Africa. This is what happened in Angola and as a result of this the three guerrilla movements were highly ineffective against the Portuguese. In contrast, Portuguese Guinea was a small territory with a single liberation group and was the most formidable foe to Portuguese colonial rule.

Opposition to Italian rule would most likely be organised early on with those loyal to the deposed emperor fighting in remote mountain Western areas of the Ethiopia. It was here that the resistance to the Italian occupation was strongest even after 1936. This guerrilla movement would be one that would probably be poorly organised and similar to the Mau-Mau in Kenya. Without the backing of any larger power or interest groups, it would probably lose out to a Communist back group in the 1960s. With loyalty to the Emperor as its core ideology, it would rely mostly on backing of the Ethiopian nobility and the landlords who controlled 75% of the farmland in the country prior to the Italian conquest.

The most likely group to arise in the 1960s would be a group espousing a pan-ethnic Marxist-Leninist ideology. It would be dominated by an Amharic intelligentsia and as a result would be resented by other ethnic groups in the country. However, it would be this group that would probably be the best organised and receive military aid from the Soviet Union and its client states. While not as strong as the Vietcong, it such a movement could acquire small arms and even SAMs if a supply route could be established through a neighbouring country.

Another possible but smaller liberation group would be a Maoist organization composed of peasants led by armed by the People's Republic China through Tanzania. This would probably be the smallest of the liberation movements and would form as a result of the Sino-Soviet split.

The Eritreans could possibly have a movement, but they were the most favoured ethnic group in the Italian hierarchy. They would be the most heavily Italianised group in the colony and would makeup a large part of the military during the counter-insurgency. The Eritreans were 70% of the Italian forces in 1940 and were considered very loyal as well as being good forces. They were the Italian equivalent of Britain's Gurkhas. Also, Tigre was incorporated into Eritrea in 1936 and any Eritrean independence movement would demand Tigre as part of an independent Eritrea, and this would be contrary to any Ethiopian independence movement.

Finally there are the Somalis, while not as high up on the hierarchy as the Eritreans, they too were seen as a warrior race by the Italians. In 1936, the Ogaden area was incorporated into Italian Somalia and the Somalis were largely united. With few Italians living outside of the cities, the traditional lifestyle of the region could remain little touched and as a result opposition to Italian rule could remain minimal.

Once British Somaliland gains its independence it could pose a problem, however this country would be so resource poor that the Italians could probably co-opt Somaliland into being an ally as the South Africans and Portuguese did with Malawi. This will require keeping the Somalis in Italian ruled Somalia content enough with the status quo. Small steps like offering free vaccines to the livestock of herders and providing a sufficient irrigation system for this region would go a long way.

In the long run, Italy would have been better off without conquering Ethiopia. It's a large rugged resource poor territory whose only major source of foreign exchange was coffee. With a feudal society ruled by an Emperor, after the independence of most of Africa, Ethiopia could have become an ally Italy in exchange for foreign aid. By 1939, 15% of Eritrea's population was Italian and this territory could have easily been integrated into as part of Italy. Somalia on the other hand was so poor that it would have been better as a client state of Italy just as the Ivory Coast and Gabon were for France.
 
Considering this if Italy stayed out of WWII, Ethiopia is already conquered though it might be too hard to completely subdue the native population so maybe a rump Ethiopian puppet government is established while various pieces are annexed into the other colonies and to be opened to settlement.
 
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