What happens to South Africa if the Cold War lasts longer?

So let's assume that the USSR lasts another 20 years at least, manages to keep the Soviet bloc together and is an ideological rival and military threat to the US well into the new millennium.

Let's further assume that the Soviet economy performs a bit worse overall than the US economy (so the Soviets will remain the 2nd largest economy in the world until China overtakes them).

Does this have any major effects on South Africa and the end of Apartheid?

From what I've read, the ending of the Cold War was a key part of Apartheid ending as it did. If the Cold War were still growing strong, it seems that South African Whites would be more afraid of losing power (since the struggle against Black Nationalism was very much linked to the struggle against Marxism in the regime's propaganda), the West would be more willing to be "patient" with the South African regime (after all, South Africa is the only major supplier of Vanadium outside the USSR and the country sits on a major strategic sea lane) and the ANC's links to Marxist groups would be more of an issue to both the regime and the West.

At the same time, violence inside the country had been ramping up, Black resistance was becoming increasingly organized and effective, the economy had, by the late 80s, become one of the slowest growing economies on the planet and the cost of the Black homelands were costing so much to enforce that they had become uneconomical.

So something had to change but it is all to easy for me to imagine it changing for the worse.

For example, if the reforms of the Botha government of the 80s were discredited due to the economy crashing results in Botha's successor taking a harder line (backed by the West in the name of anti-Communism) which pushes the Black resistance groups to fight back harder, leading to the whole country sliding into civil war during the 90s.

Or a similar course to OTL is followed (with the West growing hostile to South Africa as Western voters grow increasingly aware of the horrors of Apartheid and the regime talking to Mandela in order to achieve some negotiated re-distribution of power), but when Mandela and the ANC win power in the 90s Western governments are so suspicious of the new South African regime that they push it into the Soviet camp (much as happened with Cuba in the 50s).

Or violence escalates in South Africa and the Apartheid regime faces the Communist/Black Nationalist revolution they feared.

And does the South African regime give up nuclear weapons if the Cold War is still going?

A white-on-black nuclear civil war (with mostly Blacks being nuked) in South Africa would be breathtakingly ugly...

What do others who are more knowledgeable about the country think would have happened if the Cold War had gone on longer?

fasquardon
 
The Nats themselves though they could hold on for another ten years at least, so this isn't too far fetched. There would probably be greater unrest in the townships but no real military threat to the apartheid government.

However, what could affect things is with regard to Namibia and Angola? Does the war there still end? Do the Cubans withdraw? Because if so, there could well be more pressure from within the Nats to reform. In OTL in 1986 PW Botha gave his famous Rubicon speech, which saw a hardening of attitudes among the Nats. However, prior to his speech there had been rumours that he was going to make some concessions, such as an unconditional release of Mandela etc. but this changed at the last minute.

So, if the war on the border still ends, and perhaps Namibia has guaranteed neutrality, like Austria after WWII you may see some tentative reforms in South Africa (blacks in Parliament, further relaxation of the petty apartheid laws). On the other hand, if Namibia has Soviet or Cuban 'advisors' it will be difficult to see any reform.
 
The Nats themselves though they could hold on for another ten years at least, so this isn't too far fetched.

Did the Nats have any thoughts about how they would go about holding out?

However, what could affect things is with regard to Namibia and Angola?

I would have thought Namibia would go similar to OTL, if nothing else, because everyone was interested in de-escalating the wars in the region. But then, the Cold War often led to violence in places where none of the superpowers or regional powers wanted it.

As for Angola, I suspect the fighting there would be drawn out. But I really wonder how much UNITA had left in it at this point. I'm still searching for good sources on the later stages of the Angolan war though.

Thanks for the answer!

fasquardon
 
I can see the West turning a blind eye to Apartheid for longer than in OTL if the Cold War is still ongoing. However, at some point between 1995 and the present tensions are going to boil over in South Africa, perhaps resulting in a civil war, or a hardening of apartheid repression so severe that Western support becomes untenable.

In this scenario we would also see a radicalized ANC, both in terms of its methods (terrorism, hostage-taking, perhaps training of guerrilla units in Cuba), and in terms of its objectives (no reconciliation, no truth commission, but hardline Marxist views, particularly if Western support to South Africa continues for too long).

I do not know what the final outcome would be but it would get very ugly, far more than it already was in OTL.
 
This book may bbe of interest to people posting here...

Selling Apartheid: South Africa's Global Propaganda War

I can attest that there was quite a bit of pro-apartheid propaganda in the right-wing Canadian press in those days, at least some of it likely funneled from government sources in South Africa. Columnists like Peter Worthiington, Lubor Zink, and MacKenzie Porter were always pushing the "Apartheid is bad, but Communism would be worse" line.
 
I can attest that there was quite a bit of pro-apartheid propaganda in the right-wing Canadian press in those days, at least some of it likely funneled from government sources in South Africa. Columnists like Peter Worthiington, Lubor Zink, and MacKenzie Porter were always pushing the "Apartheid is bad, but Communism would be worse" line.

Very interesting...

And I'll have a look at the book.

In this scenario we would also see a radicalized ANC, both in terms of its methods (terrorism, hostage-taking, perhaps training of guerrilla units in Cuba), and in terms of its objectives (no reconciliation, no truth commission, but hardline Marxist views, particularly if Western support to South Africa continues for too long).

How prone the ANC was to becoming more Marxist do you think?

One of the things I've been trying to get a handle on is how strong the Marxist thread in the ANC was. And how strong it could become.

I wonder if, in a situation where the ANC was seen to be Marxist, and the whites were seen as on the way out, if the West would rally behind Inkatha (and send money, weapons and CIA trainers, with predictably violent and fratricidal results).

fasquardon
 
In a continued Cold War, South Africa is very likely to collapse into civil war if the ANC is still supported by the Soviet Union and the West turns a blind eye to apartheid in the interest of keeping South Africa as an ally. By OTL 1990 international sanctions were choking their economy - if this kept going on it would leave the country very unstable. Many whites would be demanding some sort of change to relieve the economic sanctions. Then again, if the ANC and their SACP allies are still backed by the USSR, then many whites may still be afraid of ending apartheid out of the fear that majority rule will lead to South Africa becoming a Communist state. With the apartheid system remaining in place, the ANC-SACP and other anti-apartheid forces will become increasingly radical in their attempts to fight back, perhaps escalating to armed insurgency. At some point the powderkeg will ignite, and the country will descend into civil war. The factions would be the white-minority government, the ANC-SACP coalition (with perhaps a renegade white faction allied with them), and possibly Afrikaner and Zulu separatists trying to carve out their own states. It would be a very ugly conflict, with ethnic cleansing and all sorts of atrocities being committed by all sides. Neighboring states like Angola, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe might intervene to assist the anti-apartheid forces. It would become yet another proxy conflict in the Cold War, with the superpowers backing their respective allies. The war would probably end with South Africa being partitioned into a white-controlled state centered on Cape Province and a black-controlled state covering the rest of the country.
 
Economcially the effect of sanctions against South Africa was not as extensive it had been against Rhodesia between 1965-1980. Not all goods were covered under the sanctions and South African trade continued to grow despite the sanctions. The irony of course was that most of this increasing trade was with non-white countries, Japan being the most notable, but Taiwan, South Korea and the People's Republic of China also had increasing trade with South Africa by 1990. African countries too, although often the harshest critics of South Africa were buying many South African goods as developing countries were more likely to ignore the origin of goods relabeled in Botswana, Lesotho or Swaziland. The effect of sanctions was more psychological, as white unemployment remained low, and the apartheid state made certain that whites were the most insulated from any adverse economic shocks. What sanctions did cause white South Africans to fear that they would be increasingly isolated, and it can be argued that sports boycotts did more to end apartheid than the actual economic sanctions.

What was more troubling for South Africa was the collapse of oil and gold prices in 1983. High oil prices had buoyed the economy, along with that of other commodity producing nations. Australia was similar to some extent, but with a consumer economy with smaller purchasing power. New Zealand for instance had lower rates of growth than South Africa during the last years of apartheid and its transition to democracy.

GDP Growth Rate
South Africa vs Australia

Sanctions and Isolationism
1986 0% vs 4.1%
1987 2.1% vs 2.6%
1988 4.2% vs 5.8%
1989 2.4% vs 3.9%

DeKlerk Period Transition
1990 -0.3% vs 3.5%
1991 -1.0% vs -0.4%
1992 -2.1% vs 0.4%
1993 1.2% vs 4.0%
1994 3.2% vs 4.0%

South Africa vs New Zealand GDP Growth
1986 0% vs 2.7%
1987 2.1% vs -1.1%
1988 4.2% vs 2.0%
1989 2.4% vs 0.5%
1990 -0.3% vs 0.2%
1991 -1.0% vs -1.6%

What is important to note is that though there were increasing numbers of white South Africans emigrating, but these were mostly English-speakers and their numbers remained relatively small. In 1981 the US, UK, Australia, New Zealand and Canada had between them around 100,000 inhabitants born in SA, by 1991 that number increased to 185,000. However, this was still a relatively small trickle, and until 1991, South Africa continued to attract more white immigrants than it lost with the exception of 1986 and 1986 when 9,938 more whites left the country than entered. By 1988 and 1989, the rates of white immigration were up over 10,000 per year, and 14,000 by 1990. The great exodus really only came after 1994, so that by 2011 the number of South African-born individuals in the UK, Australia, New Zealand, the US and Canada was nearly 600,000.

This might seem shocking to some, but it was not disimilar from the pattern of other settler colonies in Africa. In Algeria, there was some emigration to metropolitan France, but during the war of the 1950s and until the Evian Accords, most Pieds Noirs stayed put. The daily lives of the Pieds Noirs in French Algeria during the period were far more affected than those of South African whites. The same pattern was displayed in the Portuguese colonies where most settlers remained until around September 1974 when the Portuguese government announced its intention to hand over power to the insurgent groups. In Rhodesia too, the country faced sanctions and white immigration actually led to a growth of the white population until 1975, and even with the war, the large exodus only began around 1979, with half of the white population departing between 1979 and 1983.

The fact that South Africa, like Rhodesia was attracting new immigrants during the sanctions period is worth noting. In Rhodesia at least it seemed that many of the new immigrants were on the extreme-right of the political spectrum with many coming from the UK and in smaller numbers from the US, seeing southern Africa as sort of a last bastion of white supremacy. Desperate to keep the white population growing and particularly attract young men to the security forces, South Africa might encourage such a stream from the UK, Europe, the US and Australia to counterbalance emigration. The result might be one where white liberals leave the country, and increasingly are replaced by more obstinate political ideologues. This of course might lead to a shift to an increasing shift to the right, for instance the pro-apartheid Conservative Party, went from earning 26.6% of the vote in 1987 to 31.5% in 1989.
 
GDP Growth Rate
South Africa vs Australia

Sanctions and Isolationism
1986 0% vs 4.1%
1987 2.1% vs 2.6%
1988 4.2% vs 5.8%
1989 2.4% vs 3.9%

DeKlerk Period Transition
1990 -0.3% vs 3.5%
1991 -1.0% vs -0.4%
1992 -2.1% vs 0.4%
1993 1.2% vs 4.0%
1994 3.2% vs 4.0%

South Africa vs New Zealand GDP Growth
1986 0% vs 2.7%
1987 2.1% vs -1.1%
1988 4.2% vs 2.0%
1989 2.4% vs 0.5%
1990 -0.3% vs 0.2%
1991 -1.0% vs -1.6%

Now this is a very interesting comparison.

It makes it seem like South Africa's economy acted more like other resource rich former British dominions, rather than the special case it's generally seen as.

until 1991, South Africa continued to attract more white immigrants than it lost with the exception of 1986 and 1986

I wonder how plausible it would be to have a situation where the ANC became a radicalized Marxist group, took power, led to South Africa becoming a close Soviet ally, and immigration from the Soviet block led to an increasingly East European White population which adopted the pro-Apartheid politics of the more conservative Whites...

I doubt it would be terribly likely, but it seems like a wonderful background for a dystopian satire.

fasquardon
 
Now this is a very interesting comparison.

It makes it seem like South Africa's economy acted more like other resource rich former British dominions, rather than the special case it's generally seen as.

With one important differnce, the per capita GDP growth overwhelmingly benefitted a small segment of the overall population and by the 1980s per capita GDP growth for the majority of the population could not keep pace with growing black population. This was actually not dissimilar to most sub-Saharan African countries (Zaire, Zambia) during the period, but the racial divide between the haves and have-nots in South Africa, made this even more striking. In the last two decades, declines in the fertility rate for non-whites coupled with AIDS has led to a much lower natural growth rate for the black majority, however the influx of migrants from Zimbabwe and other African countries has made up for the decline.
 
With one important differnce, the per capita GDP growth overwhelmingly benefitted a small segment of the overall population and by the 1980s per capita GDP growth for the majority of the population could not keep pace with growing black population. This was actually not dissimilar to most sub-Saharan African countries (Zaire, Zambia) during the period, but the racial divide between the haves and have-nots in South Africa, made this even more striking. In the last two decades, declines in the fertility rate for non-whites coupled with AIDS has led to a much lower natural growth rate for the black majority, however the influx of migrants from Zimbabwe and other African countries has made up for the decline.

So a South Africa that maintained Apartheid, maintained a stronger boarder (though that may be impossible) and saw continuing White immigration could have actually seen the White minority start to out-grow the Black majority if it had gone on for another 20 years?

Blimey... Wouldn't the TTL world's far-right groups love that.

fasquardon
 
So a South Africa that maintained Apartheid, maintained a stronger boarder (though that may be impossible) and saw continuing White immigration could have actually seen the White minority start to out-grow the Black majority if it had gone on for another 20 years?

Blimey... Wouldn't the TTL world's far-right groups love that.

fasquardon

In a scenario with a continuing Cold War we'd probably see continued sanctions on South Africa, and a continuation of the Border War (if there is peace in Namibia it will still be necessary for the SADF to be well equipped and trained). This will mean a shrinking economy and thus a drop in living standards for white people which could push emigration and lead to a drop in white immigration.

The internal political dynamics of white South Africa could also be interesting. In the last whites-only election in 1989 the Nats' share of the vote dropped below 50% for the first time since the 1950s (although they still had a decent majority in Parliament). If their share of seats drops below 50% it would be interesting to see who they would go into coalition with - the hard right Conservative Party or the reformist Democratic Party?

One must remember in the late '80s the Nats were already moving to reform and even if De Klerk hadn't unbanned the ANC, PAC, and SACP and unconditionally released Mandela there would still have been efforts to include black South Africans in the political system. It is unlikely that this would have been seen as legitimate by most black South Africans, but we would probably see some sort of continued move away from the hard apartheid of the 1960s and 1970s.
 
In a scenario with a continuing Cold War we'd probably see continued sanctions on South Africa, and a continuation of the Border War (if there is peace in Namibia it will still be necessary for the SADF to be well equipped and trained). This will mean a shrinking economy and thus a drop in living standards for white people which could push emigration and lead to a drop in white immigration.

Were sanctions on South Africa a serious impediment to the economy before the Soviet Union was clearly dying? I had thought not.

I've only been reading into this deeply for a few days though. Do you know any good sources on the effectiveness of sanctions on South Africa?

The internal political dynamics of white South Africa could also be interesting. In the last whites-only election in 1989 the Nats' share of the vote dropped below 50% for the first time since the 1950s (although they still had a decent majority in Parliament). If their share of seats drops below 50% it would be interesting to see who they would go into coalition with - the hard right Conservative Party or the reformist Democratic Party?

The Conservative Party was further right than the Nats even?

One must remember in the late '80s the Nats were already moving to reform and even if De Klerk hadn't unbanned the ANC, PAC, and SACP and unconditionally released Mandela there would still have been efforts to include black South Africans in the political system. It is unlikely that this would have been seen as legitimate by most black South Africans, but we would probably see some sort of continued move away from the hard apartheid of the 1960s and 1970s.

One of the things I've been trying to figure out is how much the end of the Cold War motivated/enabled the moves to reform in the late 80s. Certainly it removed some of the fear that a Communist revolution would happen if the regime reformed.

fasquardon
 
Were sanctions on South Africa a serious impediment to the economy before the Soviet Union was clearly dying? I had thought not.

I've only been reading into this deeply for a few days though. Do you know any good sources on the effectiveness of sanctions on South Africa?



The Conservative Party was further right than the Nats even?



One of the things I've been trying to figure out is how much the end of the Cold War motivated/enabled the moves to reform in the late 80s. Certainly it removed some of the fear that a Communist revolution would happen if the regime reformed.

fasquardon

Sanctions hit SA pretty hard, especially financial ones. The SA government was basically bankrupted overnight when most of its creditors called in their loans overnight in 1986 following PW Botha's 'Rubicon' speech.

Interest rates were over 20% and inflation was 15-20%, things were hard and the middle class were getting squeezed. Sanctions definitely did have an impact on SA.

The CP were a breakaway from the Nats, who felt the Nats were too 'liberal' and not sufficiently committed to keeping apartheid.

The reforms were certainly partly due to the end of the Cold War, but the end of the Border War and the independence of Namibia all happened while the Cold War was still going, so I do think there would have been scope for some reform (but certainly not the total abolition of apartheid as happened in OTL).
 
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