So let's assume that the USSR lasts another 20 years at least, manages to keep the Soviet bloc together and is an ideological rival and military threat to the US well into the new millennium.
Let's further assume that the Soviet economy performs a bit worse overall than the US economy (so the Soviets will remain the 2nd largest economy in the world until China overtakes them).
Does this have any major effects on South Africa and the end of Apartheid?
From what I've read, the ending of the Cold War was a key part of Apartheid ending as it did. If the Cold War were still growing strong, it seems that South African Whites would be more afraid of losing power (since the struggle against Black Nationalism was very much linked to the struggle against Marxism in the regime's propaganda), the West would be more willing to be "patient" with the South African regime (after all, South Africa is the only major supplier of Vanadium outside the USSR and the country sits on a major strategic sea lane) and the ANC's links to Marxist groups would be more of an issue to both the regime and the West.
At the same time, violence inside the country had been ramping up, Black resistance was becoming increasingly organized and effective, the economy had, by the late 80s, become one of the slowest growing economies on the planet and the cost of the Black homelands were costing so much to enforce that they had become uneconomical.
So something had to change but it is all to easy for me to imagine it changing for the worse.
For example, if the reforms of the Botha government of the 80s were discredited due to the economy crashing results in Botha's successor taking a harder line (backed by the West in the name of anti-Communism) which pushes the Black resistance groups to fight back harder, leading to the whole country sliding into civil war during the 90s.
Or a similar course to OTL is followed (with the West growing hostile to South Africa as Western voters grow increasingly aware of the horrors of Apartheid and the regime talking to Mandela in order to achieve some negotiated re-distribution of power), but when Mandela and the ANC win power in the 90s Western governments are so suspicious of the new South African regime that they push it into the Soviet camp (much as happened with Cuba in the 50s).
Or violence escalates in South Africa and the Apartheid regime faces the Communist/Black Nationalist revolution they feared.
And does the South African regime give up nuclear weapons if the Cold War is still going?
A white-on-black nuclear civil war (with mostly Blacks being nuked) in South Africa would be breathtakingly ugly...
What do others who are more knowledgeable about the country think would have happened if the Cold War had gone on longer?
fasquardon
Let's further assume that the Soviet economy performs a bit worse overall than the US economy (so the Soviets will remain the 2nd largest economy in the world until China overtakes them).
Does this have any major effects on South Africa and the end of Apartheid?
From what I've read, the ending of the Cold War was a key part of Apartheid ending as it did. If the Cold War were still growing strong, it seems that South African Whites would be more afraid of losing power (since the struggle against Black Nationalism was very much linked to the struggle against Marxism in the regime's propaganda), the West would be more willing to be "patient" with the South African regime (after all, South Africa is the only major supplier of Vanadium outside the USSR and the country sits on a major strategic sea lane) and the ANC's links to Marxist groups would be more of an issue to both the regime and the West.
At the same time, violence inside the country had been ramping up, Black resistance was becoming increasingly organized and effective, the economy had, by the late 80s, become one of the slowest growing economies on the planet and the cost of the Black homelands were costing so much to enforce that they had become uneconomical.
So something had to change but it is all to easy for me to imagine it changing for the worse.
For example, if the reforms of the Botha government of the 80s were discredited due to the economy crashing results in Botha's successor taking a harder line (backed by the West in the name of anti-Communism) which pushes the Black resistance groups to fight back harder, leading to the whole country sliding into civil war during the 90s.
Or a similar course to OTL is followed (with the West growing hostile to South Africa as Western voters grow increasingly aware of the horrors of Apartheid and the regime talking to Mandela in order to achieve some negotiated re-distribution of power), but when Mandela and the ANC win power in the 90s Western governments are so suspicious of the new South African regime that they push it into the Soviet camp (much as happened with Cuba in the 50s).
Or violence escalates in South Africa and the Apartheid regime faces the Communist/Black Nationalist revolution they feared.
And does the South African regime give up nuclear weapons if the Cold War is still going?
A white-on-black nuclear civil war (with mostly Blacks being nuked) in South Africa would be breathtakingly ugly...
What do others who are more knowledgeable about the country think would have happened if the Cold War had gone on longer?
fasquardon