What happens to Mexico without the stabilization of the Porfiriato.

mad orc

Banned
So suppose Diaz doesn't hold power for that long and the cycle of civil war continues.


What happens then ?
 
Another Santa Anna comes along at some point, if not the anarchy continues. At least the Mexican Empire won't be recreated, no one was stupid enough to try that again...
 
In my experience, regardless of what 'that' is, there is always someone stupid enough to try that again.

Unfortunately you are right, when someone comes up with something 'foolproof' nature creates a bigger fool. But hopefully Maximillian's execution got the point across...
 
My question is what wold the powers that be, regional and international,AKA, The United States, Great Britain, Germany, and France, do to maintain some semblance of a united Mexico for their own purposes?
 
My question is what wold the powers that be, regional and international,AKA, The United States, Great Britain, Germany, and France, do to maintain some semblance of a united Mexico for their own purposes?

The US is liable to at least try to create a line of stable, semi-legitiment strongmen along the Mexican northern border states, if only to keep the prospect of bandit dens or safe havens for Native Americans to ride behind and recuperate so they can drag out the Great Plains wars. I imagine they'd be something like the Khedivate of Egypt; technically subordinate and paying lip service to Mexico City, sending some token taxes, Washington making sure they get the "offical" statements from whomevers in charge in the South to dispose of troublesome clients, but for all practical purposes being a client state of The United States. Maybe at some point a regeime in desperate need of funds will give up the ghost and peddle those regions off to the US for guns and treasure to crush an insurgency or separatist movement.

Whatever the case, I highly doubt Britain, Germany, or France will be allowed to get a foothold. Monroe Doctrine and all that, ESPECIALLY since Mexico, being one of the most populious nations and directly on the US border can actually pose a material threat (however minor) and would require the US to invest attention and actually build something of a sizable regular army (*Gasp*! The horror!) to protect Texas and California for a potential incursion.
 
[snip]The US is liable to at least try to create a line of stable, semi-legitiment strongmen along the Mexican northern border states, if only to keep the prospect of bandit dens or safe havens for Native Americans to ride behind and recuperate so they can drag out the Great Plains wars.

Agreed, the last thing the US needs is dozens of Pancho Villa's crossing the border raiding and robbing at will. Not to mention hostile Indians and gangs. Can you imagine the Dillinger and Barker gangs using Mexico as a base/shield and raiding the border states as they please?
 
The Reconstruction-era US is in no state to be mounting 1910 style (or even 1840 style) southern interventions. More likely that Lerdo succeeds Juarez but faces low-level civil insurgency as the anti-Maximilian alliance built by Juarez steadily falls apart as per OTL. Power may then be taken TTL by a general that manages to create an alliance of his own, as most of the generals-- even the anti-Lerdo ones-- were (on paper) liberals who sought an effective (but autonomous from civilian meddling) army with a stable (if weak) government. They didn't want Lerdo as their commander in chief, but that doesn't mean they wanted no one as commander.

TTl's "generalissimo" might be Bernardo Reyes, who served his patron Diaz faithfully OTL but still sought power in his own right over the army and provinces. Such ambition may serve him well TTL.

The real question, though, is what happens in the Yucatan. If Reyes's relations with the "cientificos" are as poor as OTL, modernization of the army may be stalled. A less modern army will be less capable of turning the Caste War around and destroying the Maya statelet. Alternately, if TTL's generalissimo isn't as cooperative with the Great Powers as Diaz, those powers (especially Britain) may simply decide that they'd rather see the statelet continue existing even if they dont officially recognize it. The resulting political ambiguity might cause some great power tensions as a Monroe-Doctrine-waving US accuses Britain of carving up Mexico by backing Native rebels. A US of the 1880s and 1890s facing down the Ghost Dance and other Native movements in the West, may be even more paranoid about this.
 
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