What happens to Louisiana, Oregon, and the Southwest if the US Revolutionary War fails?

The Avenger

Banned
If the US Revolutionary War fails, what happens to Louisiana Territory, Oregon Country, and the territories that are now the Southwestern U.S. (Texas, California, Nevada, Arizona, et cetera)?

Do these territories eventually become British in this TL? Or do they have a different fate in store for them?
 
Louisiana and Oregon are almost certainly swallowed up by the British, the former in the Napoleonic wars.
 

The Avenger

Banned
Louisiana and Oregon are almost certainly swallowed up by the British, the former in the Napoleonic wars.
Does Spain still hand Louisiana back to France in 1801?

Also, what about the territories that are now a part of the Southwestern U.S.? What happens to them in this TL?
 
For what would become the American Southwest I see sveral possibilities:

1) It stays Spanish/Mexican. It wouldn't have had much value at the time so there wouldn't have been much impetus to conquer it. Settlement from TTL's British North America is likely to be slower given Britain's somewhat different policy towards Native Americans and perhaps London's interest in maintaining control over its rebellious colonies might mean Britain isn't desperate to see them get larger. It might take longer for other European powers to meddle in either Spanish/Mexican affairs, which means more time for settlement by Hispanophones.

2) It goes independent. Northern New Mexico did have some separatist tendencies from Mexico OTL, and in the ATL version of the continent-wide revolutions that ended Spanish power in the Americas its possible New Mexico becomes its own country. It would be interesting to see it almost run like a northern version of Paraguay with Catholic missionaries working to ensure assimilation with the natives.

3) It becomes part of an independent California. Realistically I think the reason Cali keeps going independent on this site is its vast resources and extreme distance from Mexico City. If Spanish control last longer California might even become its own Viceroyalty and assigned New Mexico as part of it.
 
Does Spain still hand Louisiana back to France in 1801?
A very important question, particularly as the French Revolution is likely averted, curbed, or delayed TTL; could very well be that all of North America west of the Mississippi (sans Russian Alaska) is claimed by New Spain / *Mexico* TTL, possibly up to present day.
 
Details of the failure are important. As stated above, the French Revolution may be affected, especially if France hasn't spent a fortune (for no gain) on the AR.

If we simply let the rest of the world march on without butterflies:
Without a handy US buyer, and the unlikelihood that France would sell to enemy Britain, France may simply hand the property back to Spain. Of course, in the failed revolution, it is Britain who will recognize the importance of New Orleans and seize it from enemy Spain. Ultimately, Britain is going to force France off the continent. the only question is whether Britain gets it, or Spain gets it, or whether they split it. I can easily see Britain keeping NO. at the congress of Vienna they had no problem keeping whatever they thought useful for themselves.

Popular belief has Britain freezing white population at the proclamation line of 1763, but it is highly likely that an expansion is going to take place. Britain's policy toward the natives is important to the scenario. Will it be as outright hostile and one sided as the US policy, or will it grant the natives a greater piece of the pie? In the end, the natives likely get screwed, but do they get screwed as badly as OTL? I don't know my Canadian history enough (shame on me), but several here have stated in the past that Canadian treatment of natives is not cause for optimism of British treatment of natives in a British colonies TL. Any way you look at it, the expansion scenario is going to be different. knee jerk reaction is that it's likely to be slower. That bodes better for New Spain/Mexico and pressures on it.

How Britain manages to hold on to, or eventually lose, the colonies is also important. For arguments sake, lets say the colonies get some home rule, gradually increasing. The wilderness territories gradually end up as new colonies. there is no one to stop this expansion except the natives, the spanish, or the russians. Count out the natives. The russians, unless they amp up the OTL efforts, aren't really a serious threat below Alaska. People overstate their presence in California.

Spain claimed the entire Pacific coastline. Britain mostly laughed at that. Expect here that Spain/Mexico gets California, and Britain ends up with Oregon/Washington/British Columbia. I also expect that at some point, Alaska ends up in British hands. I don't expect Britain to violate Spanish claims on Cali. That leaves the Louisiana Purchase region in question. If Britain has wrested New Orleans from Spain/France, most of the northern parts of it are likely to follow. My thought is that when Britain takes NO, they simply take all of it and give Spain a generous borderline.
 
Might Spanish Louisiana turn into a larger Texas - filled with English-speaking settlers, who eventually revolt against Spanish rule, prompting the major English-speaking power (Britain in this case) to step in?
 
I think the Oregon Country and Louisiana Purchase end up British, with the Thirteen Colonies, and the fate of the Southwest is up in the air. But the situation changes if the Thirteen States win their freedom, but their union collapses.
 

Marc

Donor
If the US Revolutionary War fails, what happens to Louisiana Territory, Oregon Country, and the territories that are now the Southwestern U.S. (Texas, California, Nevada, Arizona, et cetera)?

Do these territories eventually become British in this TL? Or do they have a different fate in store for them?

Sorry, I do think that the premise of a failed American Revolution so thoroughly changes the stream of known history that your query is just about impossible to speculate on.
A few simple mental experiments as to consequences: No French revolution, or if so, it has a very different track. No Napoleonic era which means the shape and direction of Western civilization is very, very different. Political leadership of the British empire is quite different - expansion of that empire is going to be significantly altered (a friend from Delhi once amusingly suggested that the English success in India was predicated on their North American failure - think about that). The Spanish hold onto their New World empire (How about a 19th century Spanish imperial renaissance - for giggles) I could add dozens more, all branching off from the 1780's, that make any guesses about the future of North America fantasy rather than serious conjecture.
 
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