What happens to Japan if Nazis do not conquer Western ?

What happens if the Japanese attack the Dutch only

That's as good as attacking the French and the British and without Nazi Germany to worry about the Royal Navy combined with the Marine Nationale is more than capable enough to turn the strike south into an utter disaster
 
I am not so sure the Netherlands would go for oil sanctions against Japan, if they weren't occupied by Germany. During the First World War the Dutch had no problems selling to Germany. I don't think they would have any problems selling to Japan. I think they would stop only when forced to against their will.

The main difference being that the Germans could invade the Dutch homeland at will in WWI.
The secondary difference, then, is that an embargo against Japan in this ATL 1941 might be an effort by the whole international community. It's not as if South American oil-exporting countries in OTL 1941 cared very much about the Chinese, but they followed the US lead. In this ATL 1941, the Dutch will follow the British and French lead.

Remember, in 1935 the Italians couldn't invade Holland, and Holland had no particular reason to support Ethiopia. And the Dutch followed the LoN lead (i.e., the British and French lead).
 
That's as good as attacking the French and the British and without Nazi Germany to worry about the Royal Navy combined with the Marine Nationale is more than capable enough to turn the strike south into an utter disaster

Why is that? (this is not a criticism, but a question). Did they have a treaty?
 
Why is that? (this is not a criticism, but a question). Did they have a treaty?

Not at all. The Dutch were pointedly neutral.
Now, of course, it is in the French and British interests to prop the DEIs up against a Japanese invasion, so it's entirely possible that some way to help the Dutch comes up.

In particular, one of the possible starting scenarios is that the Germans have been defeated in 1940. If so, the Dutch are de facto allied with the British and the French, and they may well be the ones who ask for help against another enemy.

Alternately, the British in particular seem to have been inclined, at this time, to proffer unilateral guarantees to countries not their allies, if they could be used as a tripwire against a major threat. Maybe the Japanese try first with some saber-rattling, the Dutch don't know what to do, and the British have time to offer them a guarantee.

Finally, there's British and French warships steaming around the place, as well as US ones, all astride the Japanese LOCs to the DEIs. It only takes a more or less unintended firefight at sea to provide a casus belli, if one feels it is in his country's interest to tackle the Japanese.
 
IF the UK and France don't have to worry about the Germans, what ever happens, the UK can have the following CV available to them:
3 Courageous
1 Eagle
1 Hermes
1 Ark Royal
2 Illustrious plus 2 in work up having just been Commissioned.

Time wise before December 41.

You could have a pretty good CV group in Singapore with the Ark and 2 Illustrious and leave Courageous class and Eagle and Hermes for training, convoying, and Aircraft transfers.

And if the British hadn't did Taranto, the IJN might not have a good plan to attack Singapore or Pearl in a similar type operation.
 
And the most likely scenario for eliminating the German problem without a major war would be for France and Britain to show some backbone over the Czechoslovakia issue in 1938. If that happens the German Army deposes Hitler (as they were prepared to do). In an alternate world with a bolder Britain and France, they'd probably be willing to stand up to Japan in the far east. With America waiting in the wings, the Japanese might have backed down.
 
The Japanese still have resource problems to deal with. They need oil, rubber, food, steel, most of the stuff needed for a modern economy... of which not enough was in their own territories, and were buying most of it. Even a full conquest of China wouldn't give them all of that. And trying a full conquest of China was drawing a lot of condemnation from around the world, including those countries selling them that necessary stuff. A lot of that necessary stuff was right there in Indochina... if they could take it. The desire and need for self-sufficiency is going to be pretty high on their list of priorities...
 
With a rapid victory (or no war at all) against Germany, the British would’ve had more resources to beef up Singapore itself, assuming the British etc were anticipating a Japanese threat. More land-based air power, plus stronger ground forces would’ve made a Japanese assault much less likely to succeed, possibly to the point of deterrence. Add in navy assets as well...

France may also have the opportunity to reinforce Indo-china, though I’m not sure of the level of effectiveness this would have.
 
The Japanese still have resource problems to deal with. They need oil, rubber, food, steel, most of the stuff needed for a modern economy... of which not enough was in their own territories, and were buying most of it. Even a full conquest of China wouldn't give them all of that. And trying a full conquest of China was drawing a lot of condemnation from around the world, including those countries selling them that necessary stuff. A lot of that necessary stuff was right there in Indochina... if they could take it. The desire and need for self-sufficiency is going to be pretty high on their list of priorities...
They had the resource problems because of sanctions imposed due to their actions in China and Manchuria. If they curtailed their actions, they might have been able to get the sanctions lifted. Not likely, of course with their codes of honor and such, but not impossible.
 
They had the resource problems because of sanctions imposed due to their actions in China and Manchuria. If they curtailed their actions, they might have been able to get the sanctions lifted. Not likely, of course with their codes of honor and such, but not impossible.
I doubt they would look at it like 'if we leave China alone, we can keep buying what we need'. Instead, it will be 'we need to be self sufficient, so that we can carry out whatever plans we have without being subject to foreign sanctions.'
 
They had the resource problems because of sanctions imposed due to their actions in China and Manchuria. If they curtailed their actions, they might have been able to get the sanctions lifted. Not likely, of course with their codes of honor and such, but not impossible.

I doubt they would look at it like 'if we leave China alone, we can keep buying what we need'. Instead, it will be 'we need to be self sufficient, so that we can carry out whatever plans we have without being subject to foreign sanctions.'

And possibly more likely than one might think. While Japan's leadership were committed to their war with China, the decision to take on the Western colonial powers stemmed largely from the Fall of France and the apparently long odds against Britain. There was a general sentiment that this was the opportune moment to strike and do it quickly and not 'miss the bus' before Germany wrapped things up in Europe.

However, in this situation there is no bus to miss or not miss :p No war in Europe means that they'll have to contend with Britain and France at full power if they start a war. And while Japan's leadership had a tendency to believe Yamato Spirit can overcome anything and be remarkably blind to certain realities, they weren't entirely blind either. They were willing to risk war with America because they had a perception it was weak and soft, but AFAIK they had a healthy respect for Britain, one that won't have been tarnished by apparent defeats in Europe - and even then, let's not forget they bent over backwards to appease America pre-war-in-Europe over the Panay incident. My bet is in this situation they redouble efforts to conquer China, but that if sanctions bite home they'd ultimately agree to arbitration and some form of treaty.
 
The Japanese still have resource problems to deal with. They need oil, rubber, food, steel, most of the stuff needed for a modern economy... of which not enough was in their own territories, and were buying most of it. Even a full conquest of China wouldn't give them all of that. And trying a full conquest of China was drawing a lot of condemnation from around the world, including those countries selling them that necessary stuff. A lot of that necessary stuff was right there in Indochina... if they could take it. The desire and need for self-sufficiency is going to be pretty high on their list of priorities...

First, in Indochina they mostly would get rice. As mentioned, rubber was in Malaya and oil in the DEIs. They could probably get enough iron ore from China, eventually.

That said, they needed those resources not for their peacetime economy, which could perfectly well buy stuff abroad (including because it would be burning much less oil than the war footing); they needed those resources for their wartime economy, and they were making war - to procure resources.

It's exactly the kind of circular logic by which Germany needed Lebensraum. We need to go to war. Why? Because we need lots of fertile land, so that we're self-sufficient. But why do we need that? Because otherwise somebody can blockade us and starve us. But why would they do that? Because we'd be at war.

Indeed, Japan is today, at peace, one of the leading world economies, and it's buying raw resources abroad. Germany ditto. That shows it's feasible.
 
Japan's post war prosperity derived in part from the more open markets, and US Cold War strategy. The 1914-1939 era was one of increasing trade restriction and Japan's business leaders struggling to move ahead without the patronage of London or US banks. Japan's leaders saw imperialim as a much better option than a free trade strategy in a world dominated by European empires.
 
First, in Indochina they mostly would get rice. As mentioned, rubber was in Malaya and oil in the DEIs. They could probably get enough iron ore from China, eventually.

Indochina produced 4% of the world rubber (against 40% for Malaya, but probably enough for Japan's needs) and 2,6 million tons of coal in 1939, plus 4,900 tons of zinc, 1,602 tons of tin and some tungsten and lead.
 
Japan's post war prosperity derived in part from the more open markets, and US Cold War strategy. The 1914-1939 era was one of increasing trade restriction and Japan's business leaders struggling to move ahead without the patronage of London or US banks. Japan's leaders saw imperialim as a much better option than a free trade strategy in a world dominated by European empires.
this was the point of my earlier posts. Japan basically wanted to be a complete empire with colonies and self sufficiency in resources. And IIRC, they also had the idea that the rest of the world was unfairly conspiring against them to keep them out of the colonial game.
Which brings up a question about something I've wondered about for a while... what exactly did Japan want with China? Did they want dominion over all those Chinese peasants? Or did they want 'lebensraum'? They were notorious for slaughtering huge numbers of Chinese in their occupied lands... to what end? Were they trying to depopulate parts of China?
 
In part all that. They were looking at the Unequal Treaties model the europeans had imposed on China. I suspect they had originally hoped to impose more of the same. The 21 Demands two decades earlier were one precedent. Leaving aside all that there was the Chinese claim and intent to return Manchuria to Chinese control, and replace Japan as Koreas patron state. Just in that sense the war was preemptive, intended to reduce China from the ability to contest Japan over Manchuria for many decades.

These debates always consider Japans search for resources. The other half was markets. The free market system such as it was of pre 1915 was stagnated or declining as protectionism grew & new forms of mercantilism for the 20th Century were sought by the European Empires. Japan needed both resources, and external markets to become a industrial power. China was about the only target with a large consumer population in reach.
 
Indochina produced 4% of the world rubber (against 40% for Malaya, but probably enough for Japan's needs) and 2,6 million tons of coal in 1939, plus 4,900 tons of zinc, 1,602 tons of tin and some tungsten and lead.

There's a reason for that "mostly" in my post.
 
Japan's post war prosperity derived in part from the more open markets, and US Cold War strategy. The 1914-1939 era was one of increasing trade restriction and Japan's business leaders struggling to move ahead without the patronage of London or US banks. Japan's leaders saw imperialim as a much better option than a free trade strategy in a world dominated by European empires.

Yes, it was a period of protectionism - meaning that it would be difficult for Japan to export their stuff, not that it would be difficult for them to import stuff from abroad.

That leaves the problem of how to pay, sure. Maybe start by not entering a costly navy armaments race? Develop the sort of light, consumer industries Japan evidently had the potential for, and produce the stuff for a cost that would allow for the products to be competitive on, say, the US markets even after customs tariffs?
 
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