There have been several threads on this board before about how Italy might have ended up reluctantly joining the Central powers, and the general consensus seems to be the war could go either way, but most likely still an entente victory.
I haven't seen much discussion on how the peace treaty would be affected.
POD: a misunderstanding of the triple alliance leads to French troops on the franco-italian border being much more nervous. Early in February 1915 troop movements related to snowfall and military exercises are misinterpreted, and sporadic fighting spreads across the alps. Italian diplomats contact the entente and central powers. The situation seems to be that Italy must declare war on one side or the other very soon. Without OTL's treaty of London which promised both CP territory and some parts of british colonies, and with Germans apparently making progress against the French, Italy declares war on France in March.
With more troops available to the Austrians Russia falls quicker, and Brest-Litovsk is signed couple weeks earlier, February 1918.
Italian troops hold the alps, but are obviously inferior to the French and take many more casualties throughout the war. As Americans arrive in force summer of 1918 the Entente break Italian lines, overrun much of the upper Po and force an armistice with Italy in september.
Diversion of troops to Italy, and no German troops sent to help Austria-Hungary, leaves the Germans in a much better position in 1918. The massive offensives and counteroffensives of that year advance the line west, but take a tremendous toll on the german manpower, and leave the german armies further from their source of supply and in less fortified trenches for the winter. Fresh entente troops from the colonies and the USA pour into Europe, while the germans can only replace losses with exhausted men from the east, young boys, and the very old.
The Austro Hungarians are unable to effectively defend their new front, and the advance into croatia and carniola is limited more by the rough terrain and overstretched supply lines than by fighting.
The next spring sees universal retreats for the germans, which accelerate in the summer, and on the 9th hour of the 9th day of the 9th month of 1919th year of our lord, the German and Austro Empire and surrender.
Fairly plausible I think. If you see any utter impossibilities let me know, but I'm more interested in discussing the peace and aftermath than the war itself.
There was a general trend throughout the war that as time went on people wanted a harsher peace treaty. I presume in Germany this will mostly take the form of even greater reparations, a small part of southern East Prussia to Poland, luxembourg reclaiming some territory, and the Saar to France.
Trieste, Istria, and Dalmatia end up in Yugoslavia instead of Italy. More of Carinthia given to Yugoslavia. A few more villages in north of Hungary to Czechoslovakia, a few more in the south to Yugoslavia, a few more in the east to Romania, and then most of Burgenland sticks with Hungary instead of going to Austria.
Sudtirol sticks with Austria, or maybe a small part in the far south ends up Italian on grounds of self determination.
The Franco-Italian border is slightly adjusted, like OTL after WWII.
Most of Italian Somalia is attached to British Somalia. Possibly small parts end up in British Kenya or Ethiopia.
Italian Eritrea is divided, about half to Anglo-Egyptian Sudan, a quarter to Ethiopia for sea access, a quarter to French Djibouti.
Italian Greek islands are given to Greece.
A small part of eastern Libya annexed to Egypt, most goes to France.
I'd presume France would receive the largest share of the former Italian Empire because they fought the longest and most directly with the Italians. If this isn't true then Libya can be divided many different ways to favour the British or French, and even a little piece of Libya, Eritrea, or Somalia might be given to another Ally.
Portugal might participate more in the war with CP Italy, so perhaps Portuguese Benghazi?
In general there will be more territory to divide up, and fewer victors who will have suffered more, so perhaps even token colonies to others, like a single Libyan city to Greece, or an Eritrean one to Russia.
Ethiopia isn't conquered, but probably ends up in the British sphere.
Yugoslavia is a bit larger and wealthier, but also has more ethnic minorities and may have a harder time establishing a Yugoslav identity or nationality.
The west will be more exhausted than OTL, and may have a harder time combating the communists. Finland might go red. A polish soviet/ukrainian war might go a bit better for the soviets.
I haven't seen much discussion on how the peace treaty would be affected.
POD: a misunderstanding of the triple alliance leads to French troops on the franco-italian border being much more nervous. Early in February 1915 troop movements related to snowfall and military exercises are misinterpreted, and sporadic fighting spreads across the alps. Italian diplomats contact the entente and central powers. The situation seems to be that Italy must declare war on one side or the other very soon. Without OTL's treaty of London which promised both CP territory and some parts of british colonies, and with Germans apparently making progress against the French, Italy declares war on France in March.
The war proceeds much as OTL, with major differences below:
With more troops available to the Austrians Russia falls quicker, and Brest-Litovsk is signed couple weeks earlier, February 1918.
Italian troops hold the alps, but are obviously inferior to the French and take many more casualties throughout the war. As Americans arrive in force summer of 1918 the Entente break Italian lines, overrun much of the upper Po and force an armistice with Italy in september.
Diversion of troops to Italy, and no German troops sent to help Austria-Hungary, leaves the Germans in a much better position in 1918. The massive offensives and counteroffensives of that year advance the line west, but take a tremendous toll on the german manpower, and leave the german armies further from their source of supply and in less fortified trenches for the winter. Fresh entente troops from the colonies and the USA pour into Europe, while the germans can only replace losses with exhausted men from the east, young boys, and the very old.
The Austro Hungarians are unable to effectively defend their new front, and the advance into croatia and carniola is limited more by the rough terrain and overstretched supply lines than by fighting.
The next spring sees universal retreats for the germans, which accelerate in the summer, and on the 9th hour of the 9th day of the 9th month of 1919th year of our lord, the German and Austro Empire and surrender.
Fairly plausible I think. If you see any utter impossibilities let me know, but I'm more interested in discussing the peace and aftermath than the war itself.
Peace Treaties are similar to OTL, except:
There was a general trend throughout the war that as time went on people wanted a harsher peace treaty. I presume in Germany this will mostly take the form of even greater reparations, a small part of southern East Prussia to Poland, luxembourg reclaiming some territory, and the Saar to France.
Trieste, Istria, and Dalmatia end up in Yugoslavia instead of Italy. More of Carinthia given to Yugoslavia. A few more villages in north of Hungary to Czechoslovakia, a few more in the south to Yugoslavia, a few more in the east to Romania, and then most of Burgenland sticks with Hungary instead of going to Austria.
Sudtirol sticks with Austria, or maybe a small part in the far south ends up Italian on grounds of self determination.
The Franco-Italian border is slightly adjusted, like OTL after WWII.
Most of Italian Somalia is attached to British Somalia. Possibly small parts end up in British Kenya or Ethiopia.
Italian Eritrea is divided, about half to Anglo-Egyptian Sudan, a quarter to Ethiopia for sea access, a quarter to French Djibouti.
Italian Greek islands are given to Greece.
A small part of eastern Libya annexed to Egypt, most goes to France.
I'd presume France would receive the largest share of the former Italian Empire because they fought the longest and most directly with the Italians. If this isn't true then Libya can be divided many different ways to favour the British or French, and even a little piece of Libya, Eritrea, or Somalia might be given to another Ally.
Portugal might participate more in the war with CP Italy, so perhaps Portuguese Benghazi?
In general there will be more territory to divide up, and fewer victors who will have suffered more, so perhaps even token colonies to others, like a single Libyan city to Greece, or an Eritrean one to Russia.
Effects:
Italy descended into Fascism OTL after winning the war, I assume after losing they'll do the same, with even more irredentism and anti-slavism.
Ethiopia isn't conquered, but probably ends up in the British sphere.
Yugoslavia is a bit larger and wealthier, but also has more ethnic minorities and may have a harder time establishing a Yugoslav identity or nationality.
The west will be more exhausted than OTL, and may have a harder time combating the communists. Finland might go red. A polish soviet/ukrainian war might go a bit better for the soviets.
Last edited: