What happens to Italy's Empire if they lose WWI?

There have been several threads on this board before about how Italy might have ended up reluctantly joining the Central powers, and the general consensus seems to be the war could go either way, but most likely still an entente victory.

I haven't seen much discussion on how the peace treaty would be affected.

POD: a misunderstanding of the triple alliance leads to French troops on the franco-italian border being much more nervous. Early in February 1915 troop movements related to snowfall and military exercises are misinterpreted, and sporadic fighting spreads across the alps. Italian diplomats contact the entente and central powers. The situation seems to be that Italy must declare war on one side or the other very soon. Without OTL's treaty of London which promised both CP territory and some parts of british colonies, and with Germans apparently making progress against the French, Italy declares war on France in March.

The war proceeds much as OTL, with major differences below:​

With more troops available to the Austrians Russia falls quicker, and Brest-Litovsk is signed couple weeks earlier, February 1918.

Italian troops hold the alps, but are obviously inferior to the French and take many more casualties throughout the war. As Americans arrive in force summer of 1918 the Entente break Italian lines, overrun much of the upper Po and force an armistice with Italy in september.

Diversion of troops to Italy, and no German troops sent to help Austria-Hungary, leaves the Germans in a much better position in 1918. The massive offensives and counteroffensives of that year advance the line west, but take a tremendous toll on the german manpower, and leave the german armies further from their source of supply and in less fortified trenches for the winter. Fresh entente troops from the colonies and the USA pour into Europe, while the germans can only replace losses with exhausted men from the east, young boys, and the very old.

The Austro Hungarians are unable to effectively defend their new front, and the advance into croatia and carniola is limited more by the rough terrain and overstretched supply lines than by fighting.

The next spring sees universal retreats for the germans, which accelerate in the summer, and on the 9th hour of the 9th day of the 9th month of 1919th year of our lord, the German and Austro Empire and surrender.

Fairly plausible I think. If you see any utter impossibilities let me know, but I'm more interested in discussing the peace and aftermath than the war itself.

Peace Treaties are similar to OTL, except:​

There was a general trend throughout the war that as time went on people wanted a harsher peace treaty. I presume in Germany this will mostly take the form of even greater reparations, a small part of southern East Prussia to Poland, luxembourg reclaiming some territory, and the Saar to France.

Trieste, Istria, and Dalmatia end up in Yugoslavia instead of Italy. More of Carinthia given to Yugoslavia. A few more villages in north of Hungary to Czechoslovakia, a few more in the south to Yugoslavia, a few more in the east to Romania, and then most of Burgenland sticks with Hungary instead of going to Austria.

Sudtirol sticks with Austria, or maybe a small part in the far south ends up Italian on grounds of self determination.

The Franco-Italian border is slightly adjusted, like OTL after WWII.

Most of Italian Somalia is attached to British Somalia. Possibly small parts end up in British Kenya or Ethiopia.

Italian Eritrea is divided, about half to Anglo-Egyptian Sudan, a quarter to Ethiopia for sea access, a quarter to French Djibouti.

Italian Greek islands are given to Greece.

A small part of eastern Libya annexed to Egypt, most goes to France.

I'd presume France would receive the largest share of the former Italian Empire because they fought the longest and most directly with the Italians. If this isn't true then Libya can be divided many different ways to favour the British or French, and even a little piece of Libya, Eritrea, or Somalia might be given to another Ally.

Portugal might participate more in the war with CP Italy, so perhaps Portuguese Benghazi?

In general there will be more territory to divide up, and fewer victors who will have suffered more, so perhaps even token colonies to others, like a single Libyan city to Greece, or an Eritrean one to Russia.

Effects:
Italy descended into Fascism OTL after winning the war, I assume after losing they'll do the same, with even more irredentism and anti-slavism.

Ethiopia isn't conquered, but probably ends up in the British sphere.

Yugoslavia is a bit larger and wealthier, but also has more ethnic minorities and may have a harder time establishing a Yugoslav identity or nationality.

The west will be more exhausted than OTL, and may have a harder time combating the communists. Finland might go red. A polish soviet/ukrainian war might go a bit better for the soviets.
 
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The problem is that Italy in the CP usually mean that the Entente will not be on the winning side, too much buttefly (Austrian having a lesser front and the French one more, italian troops fighting with the Germans in France, the Serbian army obliterated without italian help, greater colonial and sea warfare in the meditterran); and even if things goes as you said, any peace treaty signed in late 1919 will be basically worth just the paper and ink used for it as revolutions will swept the entire continent
 
Honestly I think you are underestimating the effect of Italy joining the war on the CP side

If Italy is CP then the Serbian Army is destroyed in Fall of 1915, and the Salonika front is inviable. This frees up the troops to stop Italy on the Alps, but in turn A-H has hundreds of thousands fewer casualties and an extra Army in reserve for stopping the Brusilov Offensive. As such the Germans won't need to ease things up on Verdun. In addition absent a Salonika front there is no way in hell Romania joins the war, or Greece, and that's 30+ divisions right there. With a better situation it is unlikely the Germans feel the need to do USW, and thus the US doesn't get involved, further dooming the Entente. Russia likely bows out by the end of spring 1917, possibly with Romania joining the CP. Germany can do a hammer blow in Fall 1917 stronger than Michael, and probably take Amiens and Hazebrouk, forcing the BEF to fall back to the coast, and capturing the coal mines France needs to keep fighting

Italy could IMO lose some colonies, but it likely gets them back in the postwar horse trading. Now revolts are almost certain so Italy will have a "fun" time pacifying them
 
Assuming your specified results, the geo-political situation will dictate the fate of Italy far more than the battlefield; but I don't believe it would end up so badly as you'd postulate.
Britain always needs to counterbalance France, so Italy can't be too hurt; as such, anything harsher than transferring the Vallée d'Aoste, Brigue/Tende and maybe small parts of Fezzan and Eritrea to French control will be vetoed - you won't be seeing any transfer of land to Ethiopia either for sure.
I could also see serious problems arising from the sudden implosion of the Austro-Hungarian nation in the East - Serbia will be even weaker and Croatia/Slovenia far stronger, thus able to refuse any pan-Slavic integration, likely sparking an unholy alliance of embittered nations against the new ones which would be denounced, but not stopped in any way, by the Great Powers.
As for Greece and Portugal, the only half-viable options (aside from the obvious Dodecanese) would be respectively Cyrenaica, and Somaliland; but either is very unlikely, because Greece will be weak and more interested in carving up some Turk lands while Portugal wouldn't really be interested in Somaliland.
 
Assuming your specified results, the geo-political situation will dictate the fate of Italy far more than the battlefield; but I don't believe it would end up so badly as you'd postulate.
Britain always needs to counterbalance France, so Italy can't be too hurt; as such, anything harsher than transferring the Vallée d'Aoste, Brigue/Tende and maybe small parts of Fezzan and Eritrea to French control will be vetoed - you won't be seeing any transfer of land to Ethiopia either for sure.
I could also see serious problems arising from the sudden implosion of the Austro-Hungarian nation in the East - Serbia will be even weaker and Croatia/Slovenia far stronger, thus able to refuse any pan-Slavic integration, likely sparking an unholy alliance of embittered nations against the new ones which would be denounced, but not stopped in any way, by the Great Powers.
As for Greece and Portugal, the only half-viable options (aside from the obvious Dodecanese) would be respectively Cyrenaica, and Somaliland; but either is very unlikely, because Greece will be weak and more interested in carving up some Turk lands while Portugal wouldn't really be interested in Somaliland.

Interesting points.

I hadn't thought too much about Yugoslavia actually, but you're right that the western balkans will be very different without the Italians fighting their. Perhaps the catholic slavs become a kingdom or republic of Croatia, the orthodox slavs get annexed to Serbia, and the muslim slavs and other groups in that area are allocated to make the border as straight as possible.

I didn't really expect any minor state involved would get much of africa, but looking at the situation closer I do think Portugal could very reasonably have gotten a small part of Libya. Italy probably won't be allowed to keep it, but the British wouldn't want France or Egypt to expand too much, and won't be interested in administering it themselves. I expect the Portuguese would quite like having a base in the eastern Mediterranean.

If Britain controls all the area surrounding Ethiopia except for a slightly enlarged French Djibouti in 1920, does Ethiopia become a formal protectorate?
 
Interesting points.

I hadn't thought too much about Yugoslavia actually, but you're right that the western balkans will be very different without the Italians fighting their. Perhaps the catholic slavs become a kingdom or republic of Croatia, the orthodox slavs get annexed to Serbia, and the muslim slavs and other groups in that area are allocated to make the border as straight as possible.

Serbia will definitely get some returns from their stint as an Entente power - the problem is, they'll probably lack the strength needed to subdue Croatia or Slovenia without outside help. And the only one interested in giving it to them will be Italy.

I didn't really expect any minor state involved would get much of africa, but looking at the situation closer I do think Portugal could very reasonably have gotten a small part of Libya. Italy probably won't be allowed to keep it, but the British wouldn't want France or Egypt to expand too much, and won't be interested in administering it themselves. I expect the Portuguese would quite like having a base in the eastern Mediterranean

The British wouldn't mind their protectorate to expand, but the main problem is - it's either them or Italy or France. This is not a Paradox game, and Portugal had no stake in controlling the Mediterranean; I don't think they'd be interested in Somaliland either, and that would at least give them a stronger presence on the Indian Ocean which is their main colonial area. I suppose a Senussi protectorate could be carved out of Cyrenaica, if needs be.

If Britain controls all the area surrounding Ethiopia except for a slightly enlarged French Djibouti in 1920, does Ethiopia become a formal protectorate?

Maybe not immediately, but eventually yes. However, those lands got under Italian control in the first place basically only because they were so poor, nobody cared enough to seize them.
So the way I see it, too much ill-will garnered for something that doesn't offer useful resources and will be a further resource drain.
 
Why would Serbia need to subdue Croatia and Slovenia that in the form of SCS joined Serbia with out force OTL?
 
Why would Serbia need to subdue Croatia and Slovenia that in the form of SCS joined Serbia with out force OTL?

OTL they mainly joined Yugoslavia out of fear of Italian imperialism, which had already claimed a good chunk of Slovenia and had clear designs over the whole of Dalmatia; in fact, Serbs and Croats wrested a lot in the Twenties for dominance (Slovenes didn't, mainly because of their reduced state) until the 1929 and 1931 coups, which marked the victory of the Serbian element.
The way I see it, here Serbia would try for control of Bosnia and mixed regions again, this time however with less forces and against a more prepared Croatian element; while Croatia and Slovenia have mutual issues of their own over Istria, they're smaller than the risk posed by the still stronger neighbors. Of course, with the post-WWI chauvinism, things can go differently; but it seems a very sensible approach.
 
Since Syrmia, Vojvodina and other parts of SCS seceded when the national council hesitated I dont really see it not to mention that the Serbian Premier asked the major powers to recognize the SCS.

The only part that actively was against unification (with Serbia/Romania) was Banat
 
I think Ram and Luke have it right that an Italian entry on the CPS side in 1915 means a CP win.

What means an Italian Entry in 03/1915 in addition to much said before...

1. UK now has a front against Italy in Egypt - even if Britain probably will win this means a drain on resources gone to Europe (or the Middle East?) in OTL.
2. The Med turns from an Entente Lake into a contested sea (the Black sea might get CP visits sometimes soon - threatening maybe Odessa and helping the Ottomans much) (covering an attack along teh BS coast into Russia (?)
3. Shipping around Africa is facing the Italian Colonies - they will be a nuisance until they are captured (small drain on Entente Resources - could the coordinate with Lettow Vorbeck?)
4. Serbia falls eralier - I assume Italy will immediately occupy Albania - Bulgaria will not hesitate as long as it did OTL = Serbian army destroyed and NOT going to Salonika. Probably Gallipoli is untenable much earlier.

Maybe??? could italy move troops to Libya to threaten Tunisia and even Algiers?

Romania - sitting on the fence OTL - probably realigning itself with the CPs...

Tech wise the Italians had formidable bombers (for the time)
 
Sorry if this duplicates anything already posted...

If the Central Powers had Italy on their side, but still lost
  • The British would probably get Italian Somaliland and the eastern half of Libya, which would be ceded to Egypt when it became independent in the 1920s.
  • The French would take Eritrea (which would be merged with French Somaliland) and the western half of Libya.
  • The Dodecanese Islands would go to Greece. IOTL they went to Greece at the end of World War II.
If there was an Central Powers Victory with Italy on the Entente side
  • The Dodecanese Islands and Libya to go back to the Ottoman Empire.
  • Italy would be allowed to keep Eritrea and Italian Somaliland or Germany would take them.
However, in both cases it depends on how bad the defeat was. With both sides more evenly matched the victors might not be able to dictate terms as IOTL.
 
WW1 Italy has a limited ability to challenge the RN, and the hold on the colonies was really tenuous - so much that they had to pull out of Lybia almost entirely, entrenching themselves in Tripoli. So, no chance of Italy diverting any reasonable quantity of colonial resources; as for the Mediterranean warfare, the CP will be far better off.

Since Syrmia, Vojvodina and other parts of SCS seceded when the national council hesitated I dont really see it not to mention that the Serbian Premier asked the major powers to recognize the SCS.

Those seceded because they had a Serbian plurality and were afraid of ending up outside Serbia if the national council eventually voted against joining the Kingdom; the Wikipedia article on the creation of Yugoslavia offers a detailed breakdown. Serbia obviously lent its support to the SCS, but in an expansionist, Serbo-centric way; if the SCS ends up as a competing nation, relations are guaranteed to turn sour fast.
 
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