What Happens to Austria-Hungary after a Late CP Victory?

[LordIreland]

The A-H Empire's destiny first of all was tied to its army, as long as it existed the Empire stood. Please also note, that the various nationalist groupings creating the new states on the ruins of the Empire, were very marginal until very late in OTL WWI and only could take over because of the power vacuum creted by the collapse of the army.

So, a deceisive victory on the Italian front would restore military prestige and thus in theory that of the Empire. Its my understanding that most of the subject peoples stayed loyal because the Empire was the best option that they had. With chaos developing on the eastern and northern frontiers, a cowed Serbia and Rumania this would probably still be viewed as being the case.

Upon coming to power Karl allowed the Reichsrat to reopen The Czech and South Slav deputies were favourable to a viable federalisation scheme that would allow them self determination.

Yeah, thats what I meant. With Germany economcially and politcially so dominant, and with A-H maybe in need fo an intervention now and then, it woudl de facto be vasallised anyways, but for a change it would be a loyal vasall. Theres absoutely no reason to give that up.

Very true, the Empire's economy is empire wide and inter-linked, a break up would cause significant economic dislocation in the successor states. A stronger centralised dependant state would offer stability on Germany's southern border, and will make Germany's economic plans easier to implement.

In the long run I think the Hungarian question probably is going to be the tough one. In order to please the Hungarians they had in 1867 been given "partner-status" and in that context were given hegemony over a number of Slavic peoples. That is not going to last forever, but reform into a more federal status will meet tough opposition from the Hungarians. I could see a civil war some time in the 20th century - Hungary vs. the rest - which the Hungarians are likely to loose. Perhaps a rump Hungarian independent state is the result, and the rest going on in a "Federal Monarchy".

This is the big problem to a smooth transition as I see it. The Hungarians used the Ausgleich to wring as many concessions as possible out of Austria and they generally got what they wanted. The Ausgleich renewal was due in 1927 and I suspect that the Hungarians would be bitterly opposed to surrendering any of their powers, particularly as they ruled over quite a few minor nationalities and did not always treat them with any real care or interest.

As a sidepoint, does anyone know if the Entente recognition of the Czech and Polish forces as fully fledged Entente co-belligerents at the Rome Congress of Oppressed Nationalities in April 1918 actually amounted to anything within the empire's territory? I know there was a Czech Legion in Russia, but I can't seem to find anything on whether it had any effect before the general collapse of the army OTL.

 

[Hörnla]

First of all, thanks also to Susano to the recent support. So we agree that Germany should see AH rather alive than dead.

So, a decisive victory on the Italian front would restore military prestige and thus in theory that of the Empire.

There already were enough victories (Russia, Serbia, Romania) - just don't shout out too loud how much the Germans had to do with it. Again, we do not know the premise enough to judge exactly how the war ends. Probably, the decision would have been on the Western Front. With France and /or Britain out of the game, German-Austrian armies could force the Italians out of Venetia and to the negotiation table.

Also, there should not be a collapse of Bulgaria. To me, it seems, that this loss of the smallest Central Power at least coincided with things going steeply downhill for Austria-Hungary.

Austria-Hungary needs peace which it can claim to be at least a partial victory and which comes as long as the army is intact. Or very basically: a peace which stops the famine.

Its my understanding that most of the subject peoples stayed loyal because the Empire was the best option that they had.

Well, OTL for the rest of the century was something of a regional anti-wank. Couldn't have been much worse. But that is hindsight of course. We live in 2010 and the number of nations in Europe and in the world is still rising.

As long as Franz Josef lived, an end of the empire was simply unimaginable to anybody but real radicals. Karl I didn't have much chances, although as I see it he tried what he could. A victory might give him enough time to breathe and to come up with a concept.

There were many loyal - what do we call them? Austrohungarians? Kakanians? But for many of them, this loyalty to a state of which they know how ill-constructed it was, was just a fear of apost-monarchy chaos.

Only nostalgia and the terrible 20th century turned fatalism into enthusiasm, by then it was too late.

Upon coming to power Karl allowed the Reichsrat to reopen The Czech and South Slav deputies were favourable to a viable federalisation scheme that would allow them self determination.

But that was just a short time-window. These deputies radicalized quickly as a) nothing visible happened and b) victory got out of sight.

Karl would at least need to arrange for coronoation ceremonies in Zagreb and Praha- whatever the Hungarians say- to boost his regency.

As a sidepoint, does anyone know if the Entente recognition of the Czech and Polish forces as fully fledged Entente co-belligerents at the Rome Congress of Oppressed Nationalities in April 1918 actually amounted to anything within the empire's territory? I know there was a Czech Legion in Russia, but I can't seem to find anything on whether it had any effect before the general collapse of the army OTL.

The situation in Austria-Hungary was anything but easy. There were plenty of strikes, hunger revolts. But until the end this was rather driven by the terrible situation than by nationalism.

Desertion was a problem, not just across the front, but IIRC also within some remote regions of the monarchy where there were gangs of deserters.

In later 1918, Czech units deserted in formation on the Italian front and were directly re-equipped. Again, this happened in the face of malnutrition and defeat.

However, there was offfically one Czechoslovak division taking part in the battle of Vittorio Veneto.

 

[Susano]

Well, the Czechs were the most restless nationality. The Hungarians had been placated, the Romanians and Ukrainians had no intellectual elites around of sufficient influence to form movements, the Poles knew they had little alternative with Posen German and the majority of Poland Russian, the Slovenes and Slovakians were always very... inoffensive as IBC has called it (and teh same problem as with Romanians and Urkainians applied), and even the Croatians didnt grumble too loudly. Oh, and there were the Italians, they were restless,too, but they were few.

So, based on that I would say a viable balance between the nationalities can be found. Actually, the greatest antagonist to that might not be Vienna or the single nationalities, but Budapest...

 

[Hörnla]

Nationalities

Very well, I would like to add a few points, thogh.

Well, the Czechs were the most restless nationality.

But also most geographically isolated. An independant Czech or even Czechoslovak state in a surviving Austria-Hungary would be embedded between Germany and the Monarchy.

the Poles knew they had little alternative with Posen German and the majority of Poland Russian

But what with the Kingdom of Poland? Congress-Poland will not remain part of Russia in a CP-victory world.

even the Croatians didnt grumble too loudly.

And won't do so when Serbia remains stomped to the ground.

 

[machine3589]

So a surviving A-H can be considered a Magyar-wank, Austro-wank and Croat-wank? Cause about everyone else will probably end up a bit worse then OTL.

 

[LordIreland]

There already were enough victories (Russia, Serbia, Romania) - just don't shout out too loud how much the Germans had to do with it. Again, we do not know the premise enough to judge exactly how the war ends. Probably, the decision would have been on the Western Front. With France and /or Britain out of the game, German-Austrian armies could force the Italians out of Venetia and to the negotiation table.

Check the PoD that I posted at the start of the thread. The victory over the Italians on the Piave is a big one for AH (at least so it seems on the surface), it also has the added bonus that it could be said to be the battle that wins the war for the CPs. So the war ends on a high note for AH, rather than total collapse as it did OTL. Granted the army is in a pretty poor state, but it is a victorous army nonetheless.

Also, there should not be a collapse of Bulgaria. To me, it seems, that this loss of the smallest Central Power at least coincided with things going steeply downhill for Austria-Hungary.

I agree with you here, I was planning to have Bulgaria as one of the victors. The Ottomans do not get off quite so lightly. TTL's war ends before Allenby wins at Meggido, but with British & Empire troops occupying Jerusalem and Baghdad. I suspect the Germans will be happy to make concessions with Turkish territories in the south because they can offer them very liberal concessions in the Caucausus. Perhaps Lawrence's promise of a pan arab state centered on Damascus may come to pass

So, based on that I would say a viable balance between the nationalities can be found. Actually, the greatest antagonist to that might not be Vienna or the single nationalities, but Budapest...

Yes, the Ausgleich is a big problem. The Hungarians will not not want to surrender any power and may well prove to the biggest impediment to a Federated States/Quadruple Monarchy solution.

I have in my mind a possible scenario, where the Hungarians gamble on an open insurrection because Germany (and to a lesser extent AH) will be heavily involved in policing/propping up the eastern territories/dependencies (think treaty of Br. Lit for a basic outline of these).

 

[Cornelius]

Yes, the Ausgleich is a big problem. The Hungarians will not not want to surrender any power and may well prove to the biggest impediment to a Federated States/Quadruple Monarchy solution.

I was just wondering: what are the possibilities of a peaceful division of the empire?

Until now, we have discussed only the sudden collapse of A-H or its survival (quite difficult, given the numerous ethnic groups). Would be possible a scenario where Hungary and Czech becomes indipendent (maybe under hapsburg or german soveraigns) while Austria keeps all the german and slavic territories?

 

[Hörnla]

I was just wondering: what are the possibilities of a peaceful division of the empire?

Compared with the break-up of Yugoslavia or the Tsarist empire, I call the dissolution of Austria-Hungary in OTL not completely, but rather peaceful.

 

[Hörnla]

Sensible idea

Check the PoD that I posted at the start of the thread. The victory over the Italians on the Piave is a big one for AH (at least so it seems on the surface), it also has the added bonus that it could be said to be the battle that wins the war for the CPs. So the war ends on a high note for AH, rather than total collapse as it did OTL. Granted the army is in a pretty poor state, but it is a victorous army nonetheless.

You are ideas are very good to let Austria-Hungary survive. I will not discuss here if the CP need ASB to break through the lines in Italy in Mid-1918.

So I guess that we have a peace after Italy gets beaten decisively (maybe due to no US-intervention) and maybe even Karl I manages to successfully propose a peace settlement.

a) Status Quo Ante in the West and towards Italy (which has to accept AH occupation of Venetia for a few years)
b) Entente Powers accept Brest-Litowsk, Bukarest etc. pp.
c) What happens to Serbia is up to the CP
d) Ottoman Empire loses its Arab parts
e) Entente keeps most of Germany's colonies

Assuming these developments in 1918/19, I have a few generals questions for you all to discuss:

1. Most of us agree that the Gordian knot lies in Budapest concerning a complete reform. When do you think will decisive action towards that been taken?
2. Would Karl I live longer? Would Otto be able to inherit the throne?
3. What are the odds for Austria-Hungary (whatever name it assumes, as a federation or not) surviving into the 21st century? If you think this is still not plausible, what lifespan do you expect for it?

 

[LordIreland]

I will not discuss here if the CP need ASB to break through the lines in Italy in Mid-1918.

Well, you have raised a fair point here, i'm trying to keep it as realistic as I can, but yes, i am guity of massaging the outcome that I want My reasoning is as follows - The Piavo battle IOTL was disastrously handled by the Austrian generals, who seemed to suddenly forget four years of experience and attacked along a broad front, imho that would be ASBish if it were put in someone's TL

My thinking was based on the fact that the Austrians were trained by the Germans in Stosstruppen tactics etc, so if these were correctly applied and used a breakthrough is a possible outcome. Compound this with the generally disastrous Italian performance in the war to date and I think its possible that a general crisis could be precipitated that would knock Italy out of the war. The Italians would go for a negotiated peace settlement rather than unconditional surrender and a dictated peace. Remember, there are no Americans coming in this version, so it could very well seem that there is no chance of an Entente victoy. The war has got very dark for the Entente since 1917, Russia defeated, the Germans threatening Paris and the Austrians seemingly about to run rampant all over Italy (they wouldn't have been able to do this imho...but the Italians don't know this ofc).

I'm out of time now to pop my views down about your other points, but will just quickly say, that with the right events I don't see any reason why AH has to disappear into the mists of time. Who knows, maybe a follow up TL could be:

AAAAUUUUSSSSTTTTRRRRRIIIIAAAANNNNSSSSS in Space

 

[Thande]

AAAAUUUUSSSSTTTTRRRRRIIIIAAAANNNNSSSSS in Space

Austria Est Imperia Orbis Universalis, but Orbis non sufficit, eh?

 

[Tyr]

A interesting thought really, some pretty important reforms had been underway in Austria in the decade before the war, its a shamne the war came when it did, it would have been nice to see how far the road to democracy would be followed naturally.

 

[Susano]

Austria Est Imperia Orbis Universalis, but Orbis non sufficit, eh?

Meh. In such a scenario any Austrians in space would probably be there as part of a German space programm, so...

 

[Tom_B]

You are ideas are very good to let Austria-Hungary survive. I will not discuss here if the CP need ASB to break through the lines in Italy in Mid-1918.

So I guess that we have a peace after Italy gets beaten decisively (maybe due to no US-intervention) and maybe even Karl I manages to successfully propose a peace settlement.

a) Status Quo Ante in the West and towards Italy (which has to accept AH occupation of Venetia for a few years)
b) Entente Powers accept Brest-Litowsk, Bukarest etc. pp.
c) What happens to Serbia is up to the CP
d) Ottoman Empire loses its Arab parts
e) Entente keeps most of Germany's colonies

Assuming these developments in 1918/19, I have a few generals questions for you all to discuss:

1. Most of us agree that the Gordian knot lies in Budapest concerning a complete reform. When do you think will decisive action towards that been taken?
2. Would Karl I live longer? Would Otto be able to inherit the throne?
3. What are the odds for Austria-Hungary (whatever name it assumes, as a federation or not) surviving into the 21st century? If you think this is still not plausible, what lifespan do you expect for it?

The earlier the war ends in 1918 the better are Austria-Hungary's chances of surviving. Antebellum the West BL in the East sounds nice and simple but there are some problems with that. In exchange for annexing Luxembourg and Briey I think Britain and France could get independent and not vassal Poland and Baltic states.

Part of the political solution to Austria-Hungary is to get electoral reform in Hungary. If that could be accomplished (which would mean Count Tisza is marginalized) then a reconstitution could be accomplished through probably not all in one step.

See no reason why for Otto not to inherit. Should be an excellent monarch. Less naive than his father.

 

[LordIreland]

The war ends in July 1918 after the successful conclusion of AHs Piave River Offensive.

Here is a copy of the proposed Reverse versaille from the earlier thread, posted by Machine3589

OK, here is a rough draft of a Reverse Versailles Peace Treaty:

Germany annexes Luxemburg and Briey-Longwy. (maybe other stuff as well)

Germany gains Morocco, Gold Coast, Benin, Gabon, Middle Congo, Belgian Congo, Ubangi-Shari, Angola, Walvis Bay, and some minor adjustments to the north of Togo. (other ideas welcomed)

Belgium is forbidden to enter any political-economic union or military alliance with France without the assent of the Central Powers, and its neutrality is rescinded. Netherlands joins an economic, monetary, and security union with Germany.

Poland, Finland (with East Karelia and Murmansk ?), the United Duchy of the Baltic, Belarus (with Smolensk ?), and Ukraine (with Don, Rostov, and Kuban ?) are set up as independent German satellites.

Romania is made an Austrian satellite and given Bessarabia, Montenegro and Serbia become Austrian satellites and are heavily garrisoned by the CPs.

Bulgaria gains Macedonia, and parts of Greece as well.

Besides territorial losses, France gets an harsh peace treaty: war reparations equivalent to some 80 billion GM are imposed on them. Their army is limited to 125.000 professional soldiers and officers, conscription is forbidden, and the French aren’t allowed to posses heavy artillery, chemical weapons and an air force. Furthermore, a demilitarized zone of 100 km is established in French territory on the borders with Germany. The French navy is forced to accept a maximum tonnage of 175.000 tons which equals about two battlecruisers, a dozen or so light cruisers and a flotilla of destroyers.


Credits go to Eurofed.

Additions generated by this thread:

1 - OE looses southern territories to the British - With the French designs on Lebanon/Syria removed and given that GB is the only Entente power capable of negotiating from a position of any real strength it is conceivable the GB would want a loyal ally sitting squarely on the overland route to India. This has the ramification of the British being more likely to seriously consider the Indian Dominion proposal.

2 - OE is compensated with ex-Russian territory: Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and perhaps the Crimea - Tbh. I looked at an historical atlas for those choices, so if anyone has a better idea please comment.

3 - Former Entente powers forced to recognise treaty of BL - No brainer tbh

4 - AH occupies Lombardy and Venetia, their troops to be wthdrawn in line with reparation payments - Think German occupationof France after the Franco-Prussian war

5 - Italy forced to accept guilt for the war with AH and to renounce all territorial ambitions on AH territory - This is essentially Germany & AH punishing Italy for choosing the wrong side.

 

[Tom_B]

The war ends in July 1918 after the successful conclusion of AHs Piave River Offensive.

Here is a copy of the proposed Reverse versaille from the earlier thread, posted by Machine3589



Additions generated by this thread:

1 - OE looses southern territories to the British - With the French designs on Lebanon/Syria removed and given that GB is the only Entente power capable of negotiating from a position of any real strength it is conceivable the GB would want a loyal ally sitting squarely on the overland route to India. This has the ramification of the British being more likely to seriously consider the Indian Dominion proposal.

2 - OE is compensated with ex-Russian territory: Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and perhaps the Crimea - Tbh. I looked at an historical atlas for those choices, so if anyone has a better idea please comment.

3 - Former Entente powers forced to recognise treaty of BL - No brainer tbh

4 - AH occupies Lombardy and Venetia, their troops to be wthdrawn in line with reparation payments - Think German occupationof France after the Franco-Prussian war

5 - Italy forced to accept guilt for the war with AH and to renounce all territorial ambitions on AH territory - This is essentially Germany & AH punishing Italy for choosing the wrong side.

I don't think the PanTuranist Young Turks would want Georgia and esp. Armenia though they definitely want Azerbaijan As an alternative give them a small sphere of influence in northern Persia that includes Tabriz and return Agincourt and Erin. Maybe make Crimea a vassal state. Another possibility is give the OE Cyprus and Rhodes.

Belgium would likely be made a German ally. King Albert was willing to do this to keep his borders inviolate. Ostend and Zeebrugge would be German naval bases.

The main territorial desire of Germany in Africa was to form Mittelafrika. I don't see expanding Togo and have serious doubts about seizing Portuguese colonies.

Instead of making Morocco their protectorate the Germans would want it independent but with a favorable Sultan probably Al-Raisuni and a German coaling station at Agadir.

Austria-Hungary would seize the coastal strip of Montenegro outright maybe the northern Albanian ports as well.

 

[LordIreland]

Assuming these developments in 1918/19, I have a few generals questions for you all to discuss:

1. Most of us agree that the Gordian knot lies in Budapest concerning a complete reform. When do you think will decisive action towards that been taken?
2. Would Karl I live longer? Would Otto be able to inherit the throne?
3. What are the odds for Austria-Hungary (whatever name it assumes, as a federation or not) surviving into the 21st century? If you think this is still not plausible, what lifespan do you expect for it?

I think it would be a diplomatic necessity for Karl to be coronated at Praha & Zagreb. From what i've read of him he seemed to be a genuine reformer, but all his attempts were blocked one way or another by the Germans and the war as a whole. With the war 'victoriously concluded' and Germany distracted by her eastern vassals and huge colonial acquisitions, I think that he would have the chance to enact some/all of his reforms and stabilise the Empire.

I see no reason for Karl to die, he caught pneumonia OTL, perhaps he may still die due to overwork enacting his reforms.

As you have stated Hungary is the problem in all of this. I would suspect that once the Hungarians get wind of Karl's plans for reform they will attempt to block him at every turn, after all the Ausgleich relationship is very comfortable for them. Events may very well turn nasty within a few years (if not sooner) after the wars end. Whether political opposition turns into armed insurection is very much up for grabs.

 

[Franz Josef II]

Since nobody else has yet said it...

MAP MAP MAP...map please!!

 

[ImperialVienna]

If Karl were to die before his son (who would likely become Franz Joseph II, not Otto I) were to reach his majority (which is entirely possible, Karl was rather sickly all his life), Zita would likely become Empress Regent. I can easily see her carrying out her late husband's reforms, whatever they might be, and then those reforms being continued by their son. Any reign by the man we know as Otto Habsburg-Lothringen I find terribly interesting because he would likely be one of the most intelligent and qualified Habsburgs to ever come to the throne.

As for Karl's coronations, I agree he would have to be formally crowned King of Bohemia, something Franz Joseph I never did because the circumstances surrounding his ascension to the throne, but I don't know that he would have to be formally crowned King of Croatia. It might just piss off the Hungarian Nobles who need to be placated in the immediate future (while slowly working to undermine them in the long run) and honestly the Croatians were one of the more loyal ethnic groups to the Habsburg. He might have a formal ceremony to honor the Croatians for their years of loyalty, but it's not necessary.

 

[machine3589]

The main territorial desire of Germany in Africa was to form Mittelafrika. I don't see expanding Togo and have serious doubts about seizing Portuguese colonies.

Both expanding Togo and seizing Algeria was in the Mittleafrika plan. In fact, the Mittelafrika plan also dictated seizing many British colonies, which I found unrealistic to expect. Google the term, you might get some interesting maps.