In an scenario where the Confederate States won independence, what happens to expansion for both countries? Would they try to expand there own influence, in different places, like the Pacific or the Caribbean
What happens to American Expansion after a CSA victory?
- Thread starter GameBawesome
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It depends on the peace treaty, but the CSA probably wants Cuba (if the prior fifteen years are any indication) and they might try to muck about Mexico with Viddauri.
The CSA to the south and USA to the west. Neither can push too far too soon. Troops are needed at home to check each others forces.
SpaceOrbisGaming
Banned
Both nations would try to expand. The CSA to the south the US to the west. Likely a war would end up happening later on to retake the south.
I'm sure the CSA would want to at least try to take Arizona and California if they had the chance. I know IOTL Lansford Hastings (the same man who wrote the Immigrant's Guides to California and Brazil, the former leading to the Donner Party disaster) offered to lead Confederate forces to take Arizona during the war.
The only way that I can think of CSA winning is by winning the support of the European powers, for example by the Trent Affair going south or something very alike. So, because of that I think CSA will never be a real player, it will always be under the shadow of someone, they need to submit to USA to maintain peace or be protected from them by Europe.
If peace is achieved early and without too much carnage the CSA could achieve good relations with USA in the long term and become more like a Junior Partner to USA, if the war ends after some European Power comes crashing, well then the CSA can hope to get some territory from USA on the peace talks, but their future expansion will be conditioned by the policies of their protectors. On both situations CSA is just a tool of someone else.
If peace is achieved early and without too much carnage the CSA could achieve good relations with USA in the long term and become more like a Junior Partner to USA, if the war ends after some European Power comes crashing, well then the CSA can hope to get some territory from USA on the peace talks, but their future expansion will be conditioned by the policies of their protectors. On both situations CSA is just a tool of someone else.
The south wants Cuba and people in hell want ice water. The Confederate navy needs to beat Spain to get Cuba, and I'm not sure they could even do that. And if they do, I'm sure the Union would be more than happy to intervene and send the Confederates to the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.
The Confederates actually had pretty good relations with the Spanish. The Spanish kept slavery in Cuba and Puerto Rico until the 1880s and 1870s, respectively. The probability of an alliance between the two if the confederacy gains independence is pretty high in my opinion, and the idea of Cuba being seized by the Confederacy was espoused mostly by fire-eaters, who didn’t have much power in the Confederate national govt.
They might buy it in the 1880s, assuming their finances are in any shape to do so.
Above anything else discussed, this is going to depend on the manner of a CSA victory (however unlikely an event that would be). For instance, a CSA victory in which the Glorietta Pass campaign turned out differently could result in different borders than one in which the Union turned back the drive to capture NM and AZ.
Something else worth considering is that a good chunk of Southern Expansionism in the antebellum period was rooted in "Keeping up with the Joneses." The territory available for free state expansion was much larger than that available for slave stakes. Southern politicians were very concerned about the balance of power in the senate. But a South with it's own nation, loses some of the raison d'etre for expansionism. They don't have to try to counter-balance the North's advantage in the House or parity in the Senate.
Now that's not to say that there wouldn't be filibustering expeditions or even naked land grabs (ala Turtledove's How Few Remain).
Something else worth considering is that a good chunk of Southern Expansionism in the antebellum period was rooted in "Keeping up with the Joneses." The territory available for free state expansion was much larger than that available for slave stakes. Southern politicians were very concerned about the balance of power in the senate. But a South with it's own nation, loses some of the raison d'etre for expansionism. They don't have to try to counter-balance the North's advantage in the House or parity in the Senate.
Now that's not to say that there wouldn't be filibustering expeditions or even naked land grabs (ala Turtledove's How Few Remain).
You know, I asked that same question in a voting thread before
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/the-csa-and-filibusters.452914/
FillyofDelphi
Banned
The Spainish Government in the second half of the 19th century was also like Humpty Dumpty; unstable on its seat, constantly broke, and often attended by king's men who coulden't piece the cracks back together. If the Richmond government starts backing the Isabella, Amando, Republician, or Alfonzoist regeimes (Who whomever else might end up wearing the crown) expect the US to start making friendly noises towards independence for the colonies and speaking with opposition factions in Spain itself who show promise at coming to power. And since said factions are by nature going to be against the policy of the old government...
Also, abolitionism is already very strong in Cuba by the 1860's, as the estate system of the economy was starting to crumble with the mass commericalization of the sugar industry (and the discovery by the local magnates, like their British counterparts, that there was a less capital-intensive and morally repugnant/socially acceptable alternative in shipping in low-paid asian labor than buying/raising slaves... the former being expendable and not carrying the same extranious expenses and could be gotten for a lower initial investment). The Crown keeping the side of the local slaveholders is only going to further alienate the local cubans (Particularly the "new rich") which IRL they were already having to near constantly suppress. Add in the US and probably some moral busy-bodies abroad throwing fuel on the fire, and keeping the island even as long as they did is a long shot.
The CSA will take NM the day Hell freezes over and not before. They had neither the population or logistics to hold it and the Union did.
Both continue expanding blindly like their OTL counterparts. Oregon might go to Britain though since CSA can only with British help
FillyofDelphi
Banned
Um...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_Treaty
Unless Johnny Reb managed to get his hands on a time machine, that ain't gonna happen
Depends on the victory conditions.
After Atlanta - CSA is lucky if they only lose Tennessee, likely to lose northern Arkansas, northern Virginia, southern Florida, western/northern Texas, and New Orleans as well. Little if any expansion if they survive at all!
After Chickamauga - CSA may get OTL Oklahoma in the peace settlement but likely lose parts of TN, maybe northern AR, maybe western TX, maybe northernmost VA. Southernmost FL is up for grabs but may stay Confederate.
Early 1863 - CSA will still lose parts of Tennessee and any claim to lukewarm Southern states but likely can get OTL Oklahoma and may eye northernmost Mexican provinces, especially as Juarez moves northwest. Cuba is a long-term goal probably as part of a purchase while Dominica may join for assumption of debts with Haiti being conquered. Not too much in the two decades beyond that though.
After Stones River 1862 - There is still a sizeable Confederate base in southern Kentucky and another in Missouri, one or both gets split and CSA troops still control enough of OTL West Virginia to push for the Ohio River as its boundary (maybe keeping it as a separate state given tension with the Rochmond elite) minus the Harper's Ferry area, the panhandle, and the counties adjacent Maryland with B&O track running through them. OTL Oklahoma is almost certainly in CSA hands at war's end while Arizona (here the southern parts of OTL AZ and NM) may become a CSA territory. Northern Mexico, Cuba, and much of Central America definitely get on the menu though perhaps not for 3-5 years as the nation rebuilds.
Early 1862 pre-Glorieta Pass (or later in early 1862 if this battle's outcome is reversed): CSA retains all of Kentucky or Missouri south of the river of same name and part of the other along with OTL Oklahoma, OTL AZ and NM with eyes on Chihuahua, Sonora, Baja California, Colorado, SoCal, and maybe even the Utah territory. Badly needed gold starts getting into Confederate coffers and expansion, along with industrialization, come shortly after the war ends.
Trent Affair or 1861 in general - as above but likely with mainland Maryland getting a plebiscite as well and a CSA Missouri and Kentucky. Little Egypt/Southern Illinois and southern Indiana *might* get one as well though it is not guaranteed.
After Atlanta - CSA is lucky if they only lose Tennessee, likely to lose northern Arkansas, northern Virginia, southern Florida, western/northern Texas, and New Orleans as well. Little if any expansion if they survive at all!
After Chickamauga - CSA may get OTL Oklahoma in the peace settlement but likely lose parts of TN, maybe northern AR, maybe western TX, maybe northernmost VA. Southernmost FL is up for grabs but may stay Confederate.
Early 1863 - CSA will still lose parts of Tennessee and any claim to lukewarm Southern states but likely can get OTL Oklahoma and may eye northernmost Mexican provinces, especially as Juarez moves northwest. Cuba is a long-term goal probably as part of a purchase while Dominica may join for assumption of debts with Haiti being conquered. Not too much in the two decades beyond that though.
After Stones River 1862 - There is still a sizeable Confederate base in southern Kentucky and another in Missouri, one or both gets split and CSA troops still control enough of OTL West Virginia to push for the Ohio River as its boundary (maybe keeping it as a separate state given tension with the Rochmond elite) minus the Harper's Ferry area, the panhandle, and the counties adjacent Maryland with B&O track running through them. OTL Oklahoma is almost certainly in CSA hands at war's end while Arizona (here the southern parts of OTL AZ and NM) may become a CSA territory. Northern Mexico, Cuba, and much of Central America definitely get on the menu though perhaps not for 3-5 years as the nation rebuilds.
Early 1862 pre-Glorieta Pass (or later in early 1862 if this battle's outcome is reversed): CSA retains all of Kentucky or Missouri south of the river of same name and part of the other along with OTL Oklahoma, OTL AZ and NM with eyes on Chihuahua, Sonora, Baja California, Colorado, SoCal, and maybe even the Utah territory. Badly needed gold starts getting into Confederate coffers and expansion, along with industrialization, come shortly after the war ends.
Trent Affair or 1861 in general - as above but likely with mainland Maryland getting a plebiscite as well and a CSA Missouri and Kentucky. Little Egypt/Southern Illinois and southern Indiana *might* get one as well though it is not guaranteed.
The absolute most the British would push for the Columbia River as a border. More likely is the disputed islands in Puget Sound. They'd never go for the whole thing though.
For the British to suddenly get interested in a delayed Oregon/Cascadia/Washington ascension would require their involvement in the American Civil War for at least six months if not a whole year just for logistics and landing the necessary forces - by that time the US is either struggling to hold on or possibly winning the land war and being destroyed in the naval conflict. I think if Palmerston was to the point of dispatching any significant claims that far afield there is probably a British flag over at least one major US city and eyes on parts of New England and Michigan before any of New Albion.