What happens to Algeria w/o the French invasion in 1830?

In our TL, French King Charles X invaded Algeria (Algiers) shortly before he was overthrown. After his overthrow, the Algerian expedition was so popular that the new French King Louis Philippe continued it in spite of the fact that he was personally opposed to it.

Anyway, what if Charles X gets overthrown before he is able to give the order to invade Algeria? (Or, alternatively, you could have him delay this order until he gets overthrown, after which point he'll obviously lack the ability to issue such an order.) What would happen to Algeria in this scenario?

I strongly doubt that Louis Philippe would have been willing to invade Algeria without Charles actually laying the groundwork for this. Thus, how does Algeria fare if the French are not there starting from 1830?

In theory with no French invasion:
1. It will remain untouched for some period. Possibly the 1870s if they stop pissing off great powers.

3. By the late 1840s early 1850s the Ottomans will regain minimum authority in the region a la Tunis. Self rule but Ottomans are their superiors in name.

3. If things go OTL and the Ottomans lose in 1878, Algiers protectorship will go to the French anyway. Tunis will be Italian most likely.

4. If the Ottomans have a better time during the latter war Algiers will remain semi-independent with the French and Italians investing in the region.

There is a good chance it will end up French later in the 19th century. But personally I give the British and Italians a chance as well. Especially between 1830 and 1850 for the British. If ofcourse the Algerians decide piracy should be kept going on. The Italians might get it in a Berlin Treaty.
 
I disagree, at least that this is inevitable. An overthrow of Charles earlier on, especially one in which the army isent off in Algeria, is liable to go far less smoothly than the July Revolution of our timeline. Even assuming the same good throws of the dice by the rebels and idiocy on the part of the Royalists in Paris, Charles having a full army to bring in or run to means he's liable to fight... which will turn the coup into a civil war the thin layer of the Paris bougious is bound to lose. So, longer Bourbon Restoration; brutal crackdowns in the monarchy's favor and disempowerment of the upper-middle class included,.

Louis Philippe actually got more shanghied onto the throne than actively tried to seize it; though he did indeed benefit from Charles' stubborn absolutism and attempt to use the war as an excuse to wrestle more power from his government. That lead to the situation being forced to simmer until the question of franchise reforms/Charles' attempt to consolidate power backfiring by matching the voting list to the jury duty list (thus de facto making the former a public record and so preventing his appointed ministries from surpressing the opposition vote) organized the opposition. A longer lasting revolution, rather than the effective palace coup of the Glorious Days, would be liable to slip towards real Republicanism as it expanded (the fear of which was one of the reasons Louis was so quick to accept the throne so as to head off such a possability)

Any longer Bourbon Restoration and in this case trying to take more and more power from the government for himself (Charles X) would see a greater chance of France becoming a long lasting Republic like the Second Republic and screw any future monarchy. French society was, at this point, thourougly opposed to Absolutism, Republicans Liberals, and most Royalists. Absolutism in France is dead and gone.

It be neat to see a ealry and longer lasting republic thanks in part of either a failed July Revolution, or a longer lasting revolution.
 
In theory with no French invasion:
1. It will remain untouched for some period. Possibly the 1870s if they stop pissing off great powers.

3. By the late 1840s early 1850s the Ottomans will regain minimum authority in the region a la Tunis. Self rule but Ottomans are their superiors in name.

3. If things go OTL and the Ottomans lose in 1878, Algiers protectorship will go to the French anyway. Tunis will be Italian most likely.

4. If the Ottomans have a better time during the latter war Algiers will remain semi-independent with the French and Italians investing in the region.

There is a good chance it will end up French later in the 19th century. But personally I give the British and Italians a chance as well. Especially between 1830 and 1850 for the British. If ofcourse the Algerians decide piracy should be kept going on. The Italians might get it in a Berlin Treaty.
Very realistic--all of this.

Also, does France end up outright annexing Algeria in this TL?
 
Louis Philippe actually got more shanghied onto the throne than actively tried to seize it; though he did indeed benefit from Charles' stubborn absolutism and attempt to use the war as an excuse to wrestle more power from his government. That lead to the situation being forced to simmer until the question of franchise reforms/Charles' attempt to consolidate power backfiring by matching the voting list to the jury duty list (thus de facto making the former a public record and so preventing his appointed ministries from surpressing the opposition vote) organized the opposition. A longer lasting revolution, rather than the effective palace coup of the Glorious Days, would be liable to slip towards real Republicanism as it expanded (the fear of which was one of the reasons Louis was so quick to accept the throne so as to head off such a possability)
Interesting.

Also, do you have any sources which state that the French military presence in Algeria was crucial to Charles X's overthrow? It makes sense, but it's something that I had never heard before you mentioned it here.
 
Any longer Bourbon Restoration and in this case trying to take more and more power from the government for himself (Charles X) would see a greater chance of France becoming a long lasting Republic like the Second Republic and screw any future monarchy. French society was, at this point, thourougly opposed to Absolutism, Republicans Liberals, and most Royalists. Absolutism in France is dead and gone.

It be neat to see a ealry and longer lasting republic thanks in part of either a failed July Revolution, or a longer lasting revolution.

One issue you're going to run into though is the idea of pure Republicanism is still highly tied to the concept of Madame Guillotine and the Terror, especially among the middle class, and so while a broader revolution will certainly have broader populist elements it'd also be far more chaotic and bloody... which dosen't feed well into the stability of the next government, particularly since the the opposition is going to be concentrated in the administrative/urban centers and organized military forces like the National Guard. Louis Phillipe was nessicery, in my opinion, to delegitimize the idea of a limited franchise, Constitutional monarchy "Surronded by Republican insitutions". I'd wager France is going to go through at least one round of that before finally settling on a lasting Republic.
 
Interesting.

Also, do you have any sources which state that the French military presence in Algeria was crucial to Charles X's overthrow? It makes sense, but it's something that I had never heard before you mentioned it here.

Not strictly, no. Its really more of a subjective conclusion on my part rather than an objectively established fact, and is more less "crucial" than "supportive" in the fact that it helped cut off Charles X's options to restort to repression to resist the Paris opposition
 
Not strictly, no. Its really more of a subjective conclusion on my part rather than an objectively established fact.
Oh. Well, it's worth doing more research on this because I don't know just how large the French forces that were sent to Algeria actually were. After all, what if most of the French Army actually remained in France in 1830?
 
Oh. Well, it's worth doing more research on this because I don't know just how large the French forces that were sent to Algeria actually were. After all, what if most of the French Army actually remained in France in 1830?

Well, one factor I will say changes is youd have less friction/less stiff opposition from the Bougious revolters since Charles wouldn't have already tried to push his position/make a power grab by using the Algerian War as an excuse. That means, even if butterflies don't blow away the need for the 4 Ordinances, the opposition is going to have less unity and resolve, while Charles has a stiffer spine knowing he has the military to fall back on. You could easily end up with a scenario where the liberals/reformers blink first in the game of political chicken without Charles even requiring calling the regular army into the capital, which means he gets his wish and the opposition government is dissolved to be replaced by a friendly ministry.

Of course, that ministry won't be able to hold confidence forever: Charles will eventually need more forgein credit, and those creditors will (as they usually did in this era) insist on calling up a representative assembly to establish responsible/stable government.
 
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