What happens if to Lincoln and Republicans if they lose the war early?

True, but if the union is unstable enough or distracted with domestic issues a confederate victory is not out of the question. If the CSA stays more organized they could win more by catching the union in a bad position more so then individual merit. People downplay the power of lobbying in the US. Third party interest presents a much larger issue in the US then it does in the more unitary states like seen in European. The north might have to worry about short term business interest unintentionally screwing them.

Except there wasn't any real Third Party interest that was that strong. The few mill owners who were hurt by it were greatly outnumbered by the steel mill owners, the arms industry, the miners etc. who had to feed the Union war machine.
 
More radical president=more alienated Senate, which was wishy-washy at best towards the war at best during certain points in even OTL. Plus, the Presidential election could be shifted in result really easily mid-war to a “Peace” candidate. The North sticking with it is not a done deal, is my point.

Lincoln may be President, and Hamlin Vice President, with terms due till March 1865, but Davis´ term would be till 1867-1868 - and Davis did not get support to fight on after evacuating Richmond.
North would not be in immediate danger of Confederate occupation even if Washington did fall in July-August 1861. But the support of Northern public opinion for war was not automatically for granted. South was in open rebellion against United States by the time Lincoln entered office on 4th of March, and yet Lincoln dared not uphold Constitution by force for a month and a half, before he got his provocation of Fort Sumter.

The 37th Congress was in session first Special Session, 4th to 28th of March, then 1st Session 4th of July to 6th of August. It did pass Crittenden Resolution of War Aims, which specifically disavowed aim of altering slavery.

What would it take for Northern Congress to disavow Lincoln, strip Lincoln of war powers and demand immediate peace with CSA and recognition of CSA independence?
Ho9w would 37th Congress have proceeded with stopping Civil War in July 1861?
 
Hard to see how the North could lose early.

1. Maybe southern members of the house and senate stay until the union accepts CSA independence and use every trick in the book to block all legislation. Lincoln suspends and arrests Congress and tries to rule by emergency powers. The army remove him from power.
2. The armies meet as per OTL, but refuse to fire on each other.
 
Hard to see how the North could lose early.

1. Maybe southern members of the house and senate stay until the union accepts CSA independence and use every trick in the book to block all legislation. Lincoln suspends and arrests Congress and tries to rule by emergency powers. The army remove him from power.
2. The armies meet as per OTL, but refuse to fire on each other.

1. He wouldn't arrest all of Congress but he would have certain members arrested for treason. Also, there goes any chance of European recognition. They can't say they are independent while still being part of the Federal Government.

2. Why would they refuse? They were volunteers. The men on both sides enlisted to do just that.
 
How CAN the North lose quickly? The South is incapable of conquering the US and Lincoln is not going to give up. The entire war shows that. He is POUS until 1864 so the war is going to continue until at least early 1865.
I agree. Even with military victories early in the war, the South "suffered" economically, and the North despite military setbacks actually grew economically due to their industrialism, and the South was never going get the international support from any "foreign government", including Britain and France, as long as they were defending slavery.
 
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If the Confederacy smashes the Army of the Potomac at the Battle of Antietam, it would greatly demoralize the public. Couple this with a few more union failures like this, it could put the pressure for peace. Whether or not it's enough, I'm not quite sure.
 
2. Why would they refuse? They were volunteers. The men on both sides enlisted to do just that.

It was Lincoln´s call for volunteers after Fort Sumter that provoked Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee and Arkansas to secede. Kentucky refused to either secede or fight on Union side.

What would be needed to get more Northern states to refuse Lincoln´s call, or for Lincoln to find no more volunteers after losing his first army at Bull Run?
 
It's hard to have Lincoln screw up enough to let the south win.

If Lincoln fell down a flight of steps and the Radical Hannibal Hamlin became president, that's a different matter. His being President may drive some of the border states into joining the Confederacy.
 

Marc

Donor
If the Confederacy smashes the Army of the Potomac at the Battle of Antietam, it would greatly demoralize the public. Couple this with a few more union failures like this, it could put the pressure for peace. Whether or not it's enough, I'm not quite sure.

Simply impossible, Lee was lucky to get his army out in time.
The South only hope is what it eventually tried for - a long drawn out conflict that might wear the North down.
And it was a fairy tale hope.
 
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It was Lincoln´s call for volunteers after Fort Sumter that provoked Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee and Arkansas to secede. Kentucky refused to either secede or fight on Union side.

What would be needed to get more Northern states to refuse Lincoln´s call, or for Lincoln to find no more volunteers after losing his first army at Bull Run?

All slave states you should note. Maryland was overrun with Northern troops early as was Missouri, Deleware was strongly Union which leaves KY as the only one in which you have a ghost of a chance of having the CSA actually controlling.

As far as actual Free States not getting volenteers, even after Bull Run, is hard to see. Every state east of the Mississippi raised thousands of troops before the draft was initiated.
 
Early Union invasion of neutral Kentucky results in the burning of Louisville. Kentucky joins the CSA. Outrage over the burning of Louisville cause Copperhead risings in Ohio, Illinois and NYC.
 
1. He wouldn't arrest all of Congress but he would have certain members arrested for treason. Also, there goes any chance of European recognition. They can't say they are independent while still being part of the Federal Government.

2. Why would they refuse? They were volunteers. The men on both sides enlisted to do just that.

How have the representative in congress from the rebel states committed treason?

Even if in prison or jail they have the right vote and speak in the house.
Members of the United States Congress enjoy a similar parliamentary privilege as members of the British Parliament; that is, they cannot be prosecuted for anything they say on the floor of the House or Senate. They also enjoy the right to be present in Congress: that is, they may be in prison or jail the rest of the time, but they have the right to attend Congressional sessions, speak on the floor, vote, etc. These rights are specified in the Constitution and have been fairly uncontroversial in U.S. history. Courts have consistently interpreted them very narrowly. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_immunity#United_States

As the union claims states cannot leave the union they are still legally entitled to their seats in congress.
Would they be able to block funding of the war or delay it enough to make fighting the war almost impossible or very hard.



Troops not firing on each other. Might be when it can down it they could not bring them selves to fire on fellow Americans.

The whole idea of he North losing early is asb.

You need to North to do some thing every stupid.
So stuff.
Like rations sent to the union army give them food poisoning. Corruption in purchase of rations leading to scandal. or substandard gun powder etc.
 
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Early Union invasion of neutral Kentucky results in the burning of Louisville. Kentucky joins the CSA. Outrage over the burning of Louisville cause Copperhead risings in Ohio, Illinois and NYC.

Why would the Union burn Louisville at that early date? Widespread arson didn't really occur much until 1864. The Copperheads were no real threat in the ACW. The closest thing to an uprising you had up north was the New York Draft Riots and even that was put down pretty quickly.
 
Ultimately it comes own to the fact that any Confederate Victory was usually followed up by no real effective follow up. Men and weapons could not be replaced as fast as Union forces and materials could be. After Gettysburg and Vicksburg, almost no men or materials could be replaced while the Union continued to produce through the end of the war. Then Grant takes over and he was first commander who knew how to do the math and knew as long as he kept fighting, he would win. It was mathematical.
 
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