Suppose maybe that Kobayakawa doesn't defect, Shimazu actually obeys orders, and/or those 15,000 tied up Western troops actually make it to the battlefields before the tied up Tokugawa troops do. Supposing, also, that Ieyasu dies during the battle, is there long term change in Japan's foreign/domestic policy? Does Hideyori remain in power once he becomes of age?
What happens if the Western Army wins Sekigahara?
- Thread starter Crusader0926
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While it's hard to say who ends on top among the westerners, we can probably assume that the center of power will not be moving east but will stay around Osaka Kyoto. The westerners also have a somewhat different powerbase, and Hideyori can't actually become Shogun. His father used the Taiko title. The Mori and shimazu will not be the outsiders of otl. Does mitsunari still die?
So <mitsunari with 500.000 koku and holding Sawayama is now the brains behind that victory, the Go-Tairō is one meamber short, and Ieasues fifes needs to be dealt with. They whil keep some. Who replaces Ieasue? Mori is nominaly the head the alliance and the strongest of the councillors, but Yoshihiro is the strongest non elder with about 605,000 (in 1603), so they will probably get the seat. Whom ever holds Osaka and the heir will be top at the start atleast, and thats is Mori.
I really think Mitsunari will screw things up down the road. He'll be the most powerful man in Japan if he actually won, but taking a look at his personality, the Western lords would eventually see him as an annoyance.
What happens next is a interesting. Will the Tokugawa attempt another shot at power, or some other daimyo will get a chance at the Shogunate?
What happens next is a interesting. Will the Tokugawa attempt another shot at power, or some other daimyo will get a chance at the Shogunate?
A western-orientation Japan IMO would likely be more outward looking, considering their position and naval power. However, I can see a base in Northern Japan still useful. If we assume that a Western Japan has a stronger naval power, they'll need a base to deploy from in the North to control the region - a base in the Kanto Plain for a major fleet to moor up and land an army is valuable.
Peculiarly, it might still benefit a Western Victory to rule from the Kanto Plain, in order to control the region, rather than for safety.
Peculiarly, it might still benefit a Western Victory to rule from the Kanto Plain, in order to control the region, rather than for safety.