What happens if the UK stays out of the EU?

Spain is not on the air, much les swith a POD on the seventies/eighties, when Spain was leaving forty years of dictatorship and simply deseperate for international aknowdeledgement as a modern nation. There is a reason it joined NATO in 1982 and the (then) CEE in 1986, and has been an entusiatic europhile since then. Euroscepticism did not truly appear until the 200'

When it joined up the EEC was the only option. Here there are two, one of which carries the promise of French domination, the other already has Portugal as a member; Portugal with a similar culture and a similar history who is getting help from other EFTA members to come up to 1st world standards.
The EFTA isn't purely the Eurosceptic option.
 

Eurofed

Banned
So, a PoD in 1973 results in exactly the same map as we have today?

Quite possibly, not. As you may notice, my map already acknowledges this to an extent, since it assumes that Moldavia reunifies with Romania, Crimea stages a pro-Russian secession when the rest fo the country joins one of the Western European blocks, and Russia is somewhat more successful into rebuilding its own Pan-Russian bloc with Belarus and Kazakhstan. I only left such butterflies sensibly fuzzy about their occurence before or after 2009. Other butterflies are quite possible and even likely, especially in post-Yugoslavia, since the succession wars there could easily have a somewhat (but not radically different course). Georgia and maybe Armenia as well could be invaded by Russia and turned into a satellite. If you may notice, the geopolitical placement of those areas is left open-ended. However, I deferred from speculating about possible alternate outcomes of the post-Yugoslav Wars to devise exact different borders. IMO this PoD is not especially likely to butterfly the causes of the Yugoslav breakup away, so in all likelihood Slovenia and Croatia would still secede away with EU support. It is still however possible that the wars in Bosnia, Macedonia, and Kosovo may turn out differently, maybe allowing greater chances for Serbia, e.g. a secession of Serb Bosnia, a partition of Kosovo with Albania, or of Macedonia with Albania and Bulgaria. Maybe even a three-way partition of Bosnia. Such a success, however, would be most likely self-limiting, too much of it woudl still precipitate Western intervention, unless Russia steps in to stalemate it, in such a case you would have yet another set of frozen conflicts in the Western Balkans.

Is an identical result in the Balkans likely?

Not necessarily. However, the survival of united Yugoslavia is not that much likely. The PoD is not likely going to butterfly the rise of Serbian nationalism or Yugoslavian economic problems, which push SLoveni and Croatia to EU-backed secession and get the ball rolling.

Is the Velvet Divorce (Czech-Slovak split) inevitable?

In all likelihood not, even if this PoD looks not especially likely to butterfly it away. IMO it's a toss-up. However, if Czechoslovakia remains united, it's more likely to join the EU than the EFTA, as Czech Euroskepticism gets an internal check.

On a point of clarification, is TTL's EFTA the same as it was in ours, or is it a second tier of the EU/EF?

In all likelihood the EFTA initially starts as a separate organization all the while, depending on how much members is able to attract and keep it may stay so or is pushed to become an *unofficial* second tier of the EU/EF. In the very long term, some kind of tier/circle system to integrate the two organziations is likely to arise, for economic and strategic reasons, because America does not fancy severe geopolitical rifts in its European alliance system, and because rival power blocks within Europe without the Soviet bogeyman to justify them raise very unpleasant memories for Europeans.
 

Eurofed

Banned
I've changed the light blue to a more neutral yellow but otherwise similar applies.

Whatever looks good and strikes your fancy, I just kept the colors I got from the EU future enlargement map I used as a template.

Turkey, Ukraine,Yugoslavia and Albania if anything are going with the EFTA for sure- no choices involved here, its just the EEC wouldn't want them just as the modern EU does not wheras the looser EFTA may find them acceptable.

A very good point about Turkey, Ukraine, and most of Yugoslavia, except for Slovenia and Croatia, come on, Germany and Italy are going to push hard for it joining the EU. IMO Albania and Montenegro are a toss-up, but it is true that the EU may not want to bother with the mess in Bosnia, Serbia, Kosovo, and Macedonia if they may spare it.

You could perhaps add in the mahgreb and a few other non-european states here too.

Maghreb is ASB for several decades still. Turkey is and looks orders of magnitude more developed, "European", and secular than the Magreb at present, and we know the kind of prejudice it still gets. Morocco and co. are going to get some kind of loose associated status, some subsidies, but otherwise be kept at arm's length. The specter of hordes of poor Muslim immigrants exploiting EU freedom of movement to "invade" Europe is more than enough to win or lose elections in most of Western Europe nowadays...

Israel is a definite possibility for both EU and EFTA if it gets a peace deal with Palestine. I would not rule out the EU having a change of heart about Ukraine in the next decade, although. Differently from Turkey, there are not any perceived deep cultural differences.

Austria isn't a fan of Europe. Its staying out.

I fear we have to agree to disgree radically about Austria. I cannot but see it as a near-sure EU member. Economic and cultural ties with Western Europe are overwhelming and you have substantially exaggerated the appeal of Euroskepticism on Austrians, it is not demonstrably much higher than in the EU inner core (look at Austrian election returns in recent decades and behavior of Austria within the EU). This is going to be even more true ITTL, where the EU is going to be even more of a perceived club of rich Western Europeans, where Austrians would be fully confortable. What Euroskepticism they get is mostly fueled by anti-immigration and anti-Turkish concerns and the like, not nationalism for its sake as in other countries.

The only certain EECer I can see is Slovenia which will feel the draw of Italy and away from Yugoslavia (if all goes the same there of course).

Where Slovenia goes, so does Croatia. It has been a geopolitical constant of the last 20 years.

I suppose I should do a version with different shades of uncertainty- Spain is very very up in the air

Like Austria, Spain and Portugal are another area where we have to agree to disgree radically. They are near-certain EU. The EU is going to have much bigger resources to devote to the development of Iberia than the EFTA could ever do, greater EU political integration looks a better anchor to stabilize their democratization, cultural links with France and Italy are greater, and political affinities between Iberian and French/German/Italian parties are stronger than with Britain and the Nordics. Portugal's previous EFTA membership is not important, some EFTA members are to be expected and switch sides down the road. The EU offers better boons, and Spain can easily play among the three EU biggies to carve its own niche at the top as it develops economically.

whilst the Nordics (and by extension Baltics) are nearly certain EFTAers.

True.

Poland as others have mentioned is a centre piece that will likely decide what a lot of other eastern euros do. It will probally decide it for the Czechs- they're tending EECwards but with Poland and Austria in the alternative which doesn't invovle being another country's bitch (after years of soviet oppression that is tempting) they will go the other way.

Poland and Czechia are a toss-up, Euroskeptic nationalism and the appeal of EU economic development warring it out in the mind and soul of those nations as in OTL.
 
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Eurofed

Banned
When it joined up the EEC was the only option. Here there are two, one of which carries the promise of French domination,

This isn't the Napoleonic Wars, since when this has been a major concern for modern Spain ? Besides, Spain can easily play the influence of Germany and Italy against France and viceversa to neutralize them all to a degree and carve theri own biche at the top. Like Poland, they are big enough demographically and economically, to rise and become yet another EU top dog, just as it happened IOTL.

the other already has Portugal as a member; Portugal with a similar culture and a similar history who is getting help from other EFTA members to come up to 1st world standards.

It is actually far more likely that cultural and historical ties with Spain pull Portugal in the EU than the other way around. You are substantially exaggerating how much support the EFTA can provide to its own poor newcomers in comparison with the EU. The latter is richer, more geared for such programs, and in all likelihood more willing to open its wallet (Britain has been more stingy about such expenses in the EU than France or Germany).

The EFTA isn't purely the Eurosceptic option.

True, however it is basically the option when Euroskeptic concerns are seen as relevant enough that to a degree they trump the other various advantages of the EU.
 
Here's my version of a realistic take, I was intending to do it earlier but I've been busy with that thing called 'real life' which always pesters me.
I've changed the light blue to a more neutral yellow but otherwise similar applies.


Turkey, Ukraine,Yugoslavia and Albania if anything are going with the EFTA for sure- no choices involved here, its just the EEC wouldn't want them just as the modern EU does not wheras the looser EFTA may find them acceptable. You could perhaps add in the mahgreb and a few other non-european states here too.

Austria isn't a fan of Europe. Its staying out.

The only certain EECer I can see is Slovenia which will feel the draw of Italy and away from Yugoslavia (if all goes the same there of course)

I suppose I should do a version with different shades of uncertainty- Spain is very very up in the air whilst the Nordics (and by extension Baltics) are nearly certain EFTAers.
Poland as others have mentioned is a centre piece that will likely decide what a lot of other eastern euros do. It will probally decide it for the Czechs- they're tending EECwards but with Poland and Austria in the alternative which doesn't invovle being another country's bitch (after years of soviet oppression that is tempting) they will go the other way.
One small nitpick:): With a POD in 1973, in Portugal, given that the centre-left will stay wholly Pro-EEC (the ideological references were in the mainland), and that at least half the right would be also pro-EEC for the same reason, I estimate an at least 75% chance of Portugal joining TTL EEC.
 
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