I've changed the light blue to a more neutral yellow but otherwise similar applies.
Whatever looks good and strikes your fancy, I just kept the colors I got from the EU future enlargement map I used as a template.
Turkey, Ukraine,Yugoslavia and Albania if anything are going with the EFTA for sure- no choices involved here, its just the EEC wouldn't want them just as the modern EU does not wheras the looser EFTA may find them acceptable.
A very good point about Turkey, Ukraine, and most of Yugoslavia, except for Slovenia and Croatia, come on, Germany and Italy are going to push hard for it joining the EU. IMO Albania and Montenegro are a toss-up, but it is true that the EU may not want to bother with the mess in Bosnia, Serbia, Kosovo, and Macedonia if they may spare it.
You could perhaps add in the mahgreb and a few other non-european states here too.
Maghreb is ASB for several decades still. Turkey is and looks orders of magnitude more developed, "European", and secular than the Magreb at present, and we know the kind of prejudice it still gets. Morocco and co. are going to get some kind of loose associated status, some subsidies, but otherwise be kept at arm's length. The specter of hordes of poor Muslim immigrants exploiting EU freedom of movement to "invade" Europe is more than enough to win or lose elections in most of Western Europe nowadays...
Israel is a definite possibility for both EU and EFTA if it gets a peace deal with Palestine. I would not rule out the EU having a change of heart about Ukraine in the next decade, although. Differently from Turkey, there are not any perceived deep cultural differences.
Austria isn't a fan of Europe. Its staying out.
I fear we have to agree to disgree radically about Austria. I cannot but see it as a near-sure EU member. Economic and cultural ties with Western Europe are overwhelming and you have substantially exaggerated the appeal of Euroskepticism on Austrians, it is not demonstrably much higher than in the EU inner core (look at Austrian election returns in recent decades and behavior of Austria within the EU). This is going to be even more true ITTL, where the EU is going to be even more of a perceived club of rich Western Europeans, where Austrians would be fully confortable. What Euroskepticism they get is mostly fueled by anti-immigration and anti-Turkish concerns and the like, not nationalism for its sake as in other countries.
The only certain EECer I can see is Slovenia which will feel the draw of Italy and away from Yugoslavia (if all goes the same there of course).
Where Slovenia goes, so does Croatia. It has been a geopolitical constant of the last 20 years.
I suppose I should do a version with different shades of uncertainty- Spain is very very up in the air
Like Austria, Spain and Portugal are another area where we have to agree to disgree radically. They are near-certain EU. The EU is going to have much bigger resources to devote to the development of Iberia than the EFTA could ever do, greater EU political integration looks a better anchor to stabilize their democratization, cultural links with France and Italy are greater, and political affinities between Iberian and French/German/Italian parties are stronger than with Britain and the Nordics. Portugal's previous EFTA membership is not important, some EFTA members are to be expected and switch sides down the road. The EU offers better boons, and Spain can easily play among the three EU biggies to carve its own niche at the top as it develops economically.
whilst the Nordics (and by extension Baltics) are nearly certain EFTAers.
True.
Poland as others have mentioned is a centre piece that will likely decide what a lot of other eastern euros do. It will probally decide it for the Czechs- they're tending EECwards but with Poland and Austria in the alternative which doesn't invovle being another country's bitch (after years of soviet oppression that is tempting) they will go the other way.
Poland and Czechia are a toss-up, Euroskeptic nationalism and the appeal of EU economic development warring it out in the mind and soul of those nations as in OTL.