what happens if Prussia loses the 7 years war?

[panderson]

Empreress Elizabeth of Russia doesn't die - the Miracle of House of Brandelburg doesn't happen and Friederich the Great is captured/exiled or executed - Prussia is annexed by Austria/Russia/Sweden and disappears from the map.

Given this chain of events how the history of the German people would change course?

Regards

 

[Janprimus]

I doubt that Prussia-Brandenburg will completely be wiped off the map, however it will have a few territorial losses. First of all the Austrian Habsburgs will regain Silesia.
Perhaps Saxony will be rewarded with some territories too, maybe Magdeburg.

More importantly Prussia-Brandenburg will no longer be one of the dominant powers in the region, but it will be demoted.

Instead Austria, Russia and Poland-Saxony will be dominant powers.

In a more extreme and far less likely scenario Poland regains the territory of ducal Prussia, which will reduce the Hohenzollerns to their territories in the HRE as elector of Brandenburg (king in Prussia probably will be used in pretence, though without real recognition).

Such a scenario will make Austria the unchallenged dominant force in the HRE and will make an unification of 'Germany' by Austria more likely. OTOH eventually an other protestant German state could take over the role of Brandenburg-Prussia, or maybe even ATL Brandenburg will slowly be able to recover.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Yeah, that's the likely scenario. Silesia returns to Austrian control, Magdeburg is probably given to Saxony, and Emden could be returned to Imperial immediacy.

Brandenburg is thus stunted and unable to ride its incredible streak of OTL luck to become Imperial Germany; thus the Habsburg status of top dog remains.

The biggest offshoot is that German culture will be less molded by Prussian ideals and could be in the vein of pre-Revolution France, though of course the German states adapted the Enlightenment ideal more than France.

 

[Socrates]

Silesia and Parma to Austria. East Prussia to Russia, to be exchanged for Courland. Mark and Cleves to Saxony. Austrian Netherlands to a Bourbon prince.

Poland-Saxony won't be dominant because the Wettins will likely lose control of Poland, and Saxony will now be very bullied by a stronger Austria. The latter will probably scoop up Bavaria at some point.

 

[kasumigenx]

I think a Polish cultural renaissance in Lower Silesia is Possible since it almost happened in OTL, it was stopped by the Kaizer in OTL it means it will happen and I think the Habsburgs might try to bid for the Polish throne again in the future.

 

[Simreeve]

Silesia and Parma to Austria. East Prussia to Russia, to be exchanged for Courland. Mark and Cleves to Saxony. Austrian Netherlands to a Bourbon prince.

Poland-Saxony won't be dominant because the Wettins will likely lose control of Poland, and Saxony will now be very bullied by a stronger Austria. The latter will probably scoop up Bavaria at some point.

Not so sure about the Austrian Netherlands going to a Bourbon Prince... but without Prussia intervening they could go to the Elector Palatine when he inherits Bavaria later on in the century, in the exchange for Bavaria that the Hapsburgs tried to arrange IOTL...

 

[pompejus]

Isn't it much more likely that the Austrian Netherlands go to France? Sure Britain might try to avoid it, but they don't realy have a choice. Without Prussia they basicly lost the war on the continent.

 

[Simreeve]

But with France and Austria allied to each other, why does Austria have to lose those lands in the first place?

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Isn't it much more likely that the Austrian Netherlands go to France? Sure Britain might try to avoid it, but they don't realy have a choice. Without Prussia they basicly lost the war on the continent.

And they just lost most leverage with regards to the New World.

 

[panderson]

OTOH eventually an other protestant German state could take over the role of Brandenburg-Prussia, or maybe even ATL Brandenburg will slowly be able to recover.

Would statelets like Hannover , Saxony or Bavaria have the chance to become the new Prussia?

 

[Socrates]

But with France and Austria allied to each other, why does Austria have to lose those lands in the first place?

Because they'd signed a treaty to that effect?

Isn't it much more likely that the Austrian Netherlands go to France? Sure Britain might try to avoid it, but they don't realy have a choice. Without Prussia they basicly lost the war on the continent.

Austria wouldn't like France expanding that much. France wanted to make it a puppet state, as it was the only way they'd get away with it.

And they just lost most leverage with regards to the New World.

Did they? When? This POD doesn't stop the British winning in America. Remember that Austria & Prussia had a separate peace to France & Britain. A British/Austrian win is perfectly possible.

Would statelets like Hannover , Saxony or Bavaria have the chance to become the new Prussia?

Bavaria would likely be swallowed by Austria during their later succession crisis. I suppose Hannover or Saxony might, but you need to consider that Prussia's rise was incredibly unlikely in OTL.

 

[Faeelin]

But with France and Austria allied to each other, why does Austria have to lose those lands in the first place?

It was envisaged as a territorial swap.

Austria didn't really want the Austrian Netherlands; they couldn't use the port at Antwerp, it wasn't connected to their other territories, and history had shown it would be overrun the moment they warred with France.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

It was envisaged as a territorial swap.

Austria didn't really want the Austrian Netherlands; they couldn't use the port at Antwerp, it wasn't connected to their other territories, and history had shown it would be overrun the moment they warred with France.

The only reason they got it was as a result of the War of the Spanish Succession, so it was no surprise they realized it wasn't worth it.

 

[Janprimus]

It was envisaged as a territorial swap.

Austria didn't really want the Austrian Netherlands; they couldn't use the port at Antwerp, it wasn't connected to their other territories, and history had shown it would be overrun the moment they warred with France.

IIRC the current Bourbon duke of Parma (, Piacenza and Guastella) would receive the Austrian Netherlands as compensation.

However if international opposition is fierce enough, then it is possible that there will be no swap between Parma and the Austrian Netherlands, which will make a later Austrian Netherlands-Bavaria swap more likely.

 

[kasumigenx]

There is a TL about this scenario already..
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=178227
Disaster at Leuthen..

 

[Monty Burns]

IIRC the current Bourbon duke of Parma (, Piacenza and Guastella) would receive the Austrian Netherlands as compensation.

Was that a fair deal to begin with?

However if international opposition is fierce enough, then it is possible that there will be no swap between Parma and the Austrian Netherlands, which will make a later Austrian Netherlands-Bavaria swap more likely.

If the Austrians have the Austrian Netherlands, they'll definitely try this. IOTL, they also tried to exchange parts of Bavaria against Vorderösterreich - that would still be possible.

Another thing to consider: IOTL Prussia opposed further Austrian expansion in the Balkans. At least one Turkish war was successful and could have led to annexing parts of Serbia and Bosnia but Prussia threatened intervention. Without Prussia around, the Austrian-Russian alliance against the Turks would live on and be successful for both sides (until they turn on each other...).

 

[Socrates]

Was that a fair deal to begin with?

From whose side do you think its unfair?

If the Austrians have the Austrian Netherlands, they'll definitely try this. IOTL, they also tried to exchange parts of Bavaria against Vorderösterreich - that would still be possible.

I imagine in this timeline, they'd simply swap Parma for Bavaria, and they'd try to get all Bavaria as they have a stronger hand with no Prussia about.

Another thing to consider: IOTL Prussia opposed further Austrian expansion in the Balkans. At least one Turkish war was successful and could have led to annexing parts of Serbia and Bosnia but Prussia threatened intervention. Without Prussia around, the Austrian-Russian alliance against the Turks would live on and be successful for both sides (until they turn on each other...).

That assumes Austria and Russia have reasonable relations. I imagine with no Prussia in the picture, there would be a lot of tension, and likely wars, between the two all over Eastern Europe. The alliance against the Ottomans might not be possible.

 

[Janprimus]

(....)

I imagine in this timeline, they'd simply swap Parma for Bavaria, and they'd try to get all Bavaria as they have a stronger hand with no Prussia about.

(...)

Well they could try to do so in such a TL, if Parma and the Austrian Netherlands aren't traded the proposal will be more like OTL.

However IOTL the elector Palatine (count Palatine of the Rhine) would receive the Austrian Netherlands (maybe with a royal title king of Burgundy, the elector seemed to have desired that, but just like earlier attempts that could cause opposition) in exchange for Bavaria.
Given the proximity of the Austrian Netherlands to the Palatinate, that seems more appealing than Parma. Other factors are the size and population of the Austrian Netherlands in contrast to Parma.
IMHO the OTL would have been better, than an ATL exchange of Bavaria for Parma.

 

[Socrates]

However IOTL the elector Palatine (count Palatine of the Rhine) would receive the Austrian Netherlands (maybe with a royal title king of Burgundy, the elector seemed to have desired that, but just like earlier attempts that could cause opposition) in exchange for Bavaria.

Given the proximity of the Austrian Netherlands to the Palatinate, that seems more appealing than Parma. Other factors are the size and population of the Austrian Netherlands in contrast to Parma.

You're right. I think its highly likely the AN are traded away to the Bourbons before the Bavaria issue comes up. But having looked at maps since my previous post, Parma simply isn't big enough. Where else could they give him if the AN have already gone?

 

[Faeelin]

You're right. I think its highly likely the AN are traded away to the Bourbons before the Bavaria issue comes up. But having looked at maps since my previous post, Parma simply isn't big enough. Where else could they give him if the AN have already gone?

Hrm. Venice and Milan? There were plans to conquer the former in OTL...