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Despite Chinese anger and objections in most quarters of the US, Japan’s right to the former German leasehold of Tsingtao (pinyin Qingdao) from wartime conquest and wartime agreements with the fellow Entente powers were recognized in the Treaty of Versailles.

However, by 1922 Japan had made a deal to retrocede the leasehold to China.

Japan came back during the Sino-Japanese war but that was in a new context of generalized aggression against China.

What if instead of being Mr. Nice Guy, Japan held on to the lease for the decade or more after 1922?

Would Japan have a semi independent “Tsingtao Army” or "Shantung Army” to secure the area like it did for the Kwangtung peninsula abutting Manchuria?

If so, might it be similarly insubordinate and “enterprising” embroiling Japan in fights with Chinese.

In the 1920s we would’ve been seeing, Nationalist Northern Expedition to Beijing, the increased militancy of both Chinese nationalism and communism, that Shantung is less peripheral to China than Manchuria, and the Chinese would have 7 years to stew about the loss of Tsingtao instead of mere three.

Given all these factors together would full scale Sino-Japanese war break out in the 20s rather than 30s? Or put the other way, is it even plausible for it to start as late as it did in OTL?

Your thoughts?
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