What happens if Japan does not yield the Tsingtao leasehold to China in 1922 ?

If Japan held on to Tsingtao through 1920s

  • 2nd Sino-Japanese War would be unaffected

    Votes: 2 18.2%
  • 2nd Sino-Japanese war would begin much earlier

    Votes: 8 72.7%
  • Washington Naval Treaty would be impossible

    Votes: 3 27.3%
  • Washington Naval Treaty would be unaffected

    Votes: 2 18.2%
  • Japan would spend the 20s in high tension with the west

    Votes: 6 54.5%
  • Japan-west relations would be no more tense than OTL

    Votes: 3 27.3%
  • Japanese relations with USSR would improve

    Votes: 1 9.1%
  • Japanese relations with USSR would remain same as otl

    Votes: 3 27.3%

  • Total voters
    11

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Despite Chinese anger and objections in most quarters of the US, Japan’s right to the former German leasehold of Tsingtao (pinyin Qingdao) from wartime conquest and wartime agreements with the fellow Entente powers were recognized in the Treaty of Versailles.

However, by 1922 Japan had made a deal to retrocede the leasehold to China.

Japan came back during the Sino-Japanese war but that was in a new context of generalized aggression against China.

What if instead of being Mr. Nice Guy, Japan held on to the lease for the decade or more after 1922?

Would Japan have a semi independent “Tsingtao Army” or "Shantung Army” to secure the area like it did for the Kwangtung peninsula abutting Manchuria?

If so, might it be similarly insubordinate and “enterprising” embroiling Japan in fights with Chinese.

In the 1920s we would’ve been seeing, Nationalist Northern Expedition to Beijing, the increased militancy of both Chinese nationalism and communism, that Shantung is less peripheral to China than Manchuria, and the Chinese would have 7 years to stew about the loss of Tsingtao instead of mere three.

Given all these factors together would full scale Sino-Japanese war break out in the 20s rather than 30s? Or put the other way, is it even plausible for it to start as late as it did in OTL?

Your thoughts?
 
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raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
I see that acceleration of Sino-Japanese war is more popular in the poll than unaffected.

I also thought that, and that it would raise tension with the west, however, I am undecided on whether it render the Washington Treaty impossible.

I also think that even if the effect is just on the margins, the Japanese will seek a somewhat better relationship with the the USSR, because its too busy with Chinese and western hostility to play up enmity on another front, the Soviets can be agreeable on condition the Japanese leave the Far East and northern Sakhalin, and there are trade complementarities between the two countries.
 
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