What happens if Germany wins WW1 after US involvement?

I don't have a POD or the experience in knowing the battleground to come up with a scenario where this happens.

But let's say that Germany ends up defeating the Allies. What happens next?

1) Does the Kaiser want to completely humiliate the French in an attempt to demoralize the population? I would assume they would annex the industrial part of France near their border as well as ports to the English Channel and perhaps even the Mediterranean. How far would they cut into France? Would they even want to occupy Paris?

I do think Germany would be as cruel as possible. They anointed Wilheim I at Versaille. Their intent in 1914 was to render France unable to attack it on a second front. Why wouldn't they do whatever they could to ensure that would never happen again?

2) What happens to England? I assume as part of the terms of peace they would need to hand over some of its colonies abroad? Does Germany try to eclipse England's sea power advantage? If they do find themselves able to do just that, do to they try and strangle England and make it come to heel?

3) What happens to a humbled US? Do they retreat to isolationism? Would they have to take any terms in terms of trade, credit forgiveness, reparations, etc.?
 
I don't have a POD or the experience in knowing the battleground to come up with a scenario where this happens.

But let's say that Germany ends up defeating the Allies. What happens next?

1) Does the Kaiser want to completely humiliate the French in an attempt to demoralize the population? I would assume they would annex the industrial part of France near their border as well as ports to the English Channel and perhaps even the Mediterranean. How far would they cut into France? Would they even want to occupy Paris?

I do think Germany would be as cruel as possible. They anointed Wilheim I at Versaille. Their intent in 1914 was to render France unable to attack it on a second front. Why wouldn't they do whatever they could to ensure that would never happen again?

2) What happens to England? I assume as part of the terms of peace they would need to hand over some of its colonies abroad? Does Germany try to eclipse England's sea power advantage? If they do find themselves able to do just that, do to they try and strangle England and make it come to heel?

3) What happens to a humbled US? Do they retreat to isolationism? Would they have to take any terms in terms of trade, credit forgiveness, reparations, etc.?

1) Germany can't afford to be too harsh: if we're talking about a German victory post-April 1917, the German economy is already starting to collapse under the weight of the blockade, and everybody in the German command is going to realize they're on a ticking clock until the Yanks organize into a proper army and come in such numbers that the already worn-down Deutsches Heer can handle. A great deal depends on how exactly the French surrender takes place; if its a result of a major offensive push into France, and a decision by Paris (or, if by some miracle they manage to push on Paris and force the French government to flee, wherever the Third Republic is set up) to sue for peace, you'd probably see somewhat modest terms in the West for the sake of recognizing German gains in the East; the remainder of Lorraine might be annexed (Iron and coal mines), Belgium recognized as part of the German orbit by the French, some war reparations (but less proportional to the population than Versailles), withdrawal of her navy with maybe some limitations, and especially shipments of subsidized foodstuffs to Germany and A-H for, say, 10 years (France being one of the few nations in Europe who hadn't really been effected by food shortages or price hikes during the course of the war, being one of the most agriculturally efficient areas in Europe, could go along way towards taking the edge off the starvation currently hitting the CP). Obviously, British and American forces would also be obliged to leave the country.

2) Britain, maintaining her economic blockade over Germany, will be negotiating an "Honorable Peace" from the safety of her island home and the assurance that, with America fully on her side economically, supplies and finances are not going to be an issue. A likely peace is either going to be status quo ante bellium (Barring recognition of treaties with Russia) or at worst a series of trade-offs and negotiations. Britain doesn't have to hand over British colonies; Germany has no way to enforce that on her, though she might return seized German territory out of a sense of "fair play, or if they're being vindictive in exchange for rectifications on the continent (Going easy on any peace treaties with Italy or the re-neutralization of Belgium, for example, to keep some semblance of balance of power). Expect the naval arms race to stay in a lull for at least a few years if not a decade though: the Kaiserreich is going to have its hands full integrating Brest-Litovisk territories and paying off the debts it accumulated during the war (as will Britain)

3. How humbled the US is would depend largely on how heavily it was actually involved. I imagine it must be lightly, since otherwise its basically ASB for Germany not to crack under the weight of American manpower and industry provided they have a place to deploy it. Considering the sheer scale of war loans at this point, accepting debt forgiveness from France and G.B isen't really viable (Not that they fully CAN... many of those loans being from private investors), though they might get a small sop in the form of 'reparations' from Germany for some of the cargo and lives lost during submarine warfare. Expect the US to push for Freedom of the Seas HARD though.
 
I'll venture a guess that the US gets off pretty lightly for the moment: Germany's focus was primarily on France, secondarily on Great Britain, and all else coming in third (something of an oversimplification to be sure, but it saves space). The US might forfeit some overseas territory (perhaps Guam and/or American Samoa?) but I doubt much else.

The real ripple effects are those in domestic politics. Wilson will probably go down in history ranked about as badly as Buchanan and Pierce IOTL, and the Democrats probably won't see the inside of the White House except as visitors for about a generation. In fact, I wouldn't look for another Democrat in the White House until the US (and ostensibly Britain) has evened the score.

But that doesn't mean it's all going to be beer and skittles for the GOP, either: assuming TR is still around, he's going to be downright volcanic pushing to have the US square accounts with Germany, meaning the exact opposite of isolationism: he'd want to challenge / poke / annoy Germany at every possible opportunity. Depends on which faction of the GOP becomes dominant as to which way the nation goes--and my money would be on the "wait until next year" TR-based faction gaining the most traction. The US doesn't like to lose--period--so there'll be a strong swell of opinion backing the idea of getting revenge somehow.

This could take the form of cooperation with the British in forming a truly formidable naval presence in the Atlantic (the US was very close to establishing primacy in the Pacific anyhow and wouldn't have taken much more). The joint naval forces could harass the living bleep out of German shipping, stopping German vessels for the least infraction of maritime law, making life so miserable that people would take their cargo trade elsewhere, and essentially goading Germany into provoking an incident. We might be looking at a naval war in the 1920s or early 1930s. Then it would be the blockade as in 1917-18, only cubed, what with two navies enforcing it. International opinion would back the US/GB almost monolithically, I suspect, led by France and Russia.

This is all off the cuff, you understand.
 
France will take the brunt of Germany's anger, for sure. I wouldn't be surprised if Germany puts a puppet in charge, and the Depression leads the French to revolt against the puppet, and perhaps with Soviet help, the Communists take over. Communism becomes the dominant ideology in Europe as fascism is something of a sideshow or a Japanese idea.
 
I'll venture a guess that the US gets off pretty lightly for the moment: Germany's focus was primarily on France, secondarily on Great Britain, and all else coming in third (something of an oversimplification to be sure, but it saves space). The US might forfeit some overseas territory (perhaps Guam and/or American Samoa?) but I doubt much else.
Does Germany have any means of enforcing that? I'd think that if Germany manages to get France and GB to agree to an armistice, the most Germany can do about the USA is say "Hey, we got France and GB to quit the war, how about we just stop fighting?" Really, that's about the best they can hope for. The USA is untouched by the war, and it's manpower pools have barely been tapped so far...
 
Does Germany have any means of enforcing that? I'd think that if Germany manages to get France and GB to agree to an armistice, the most Germany can do about the USA is say "Hey, we got France and GB to quit the war, how about we just stop fighting?" Really, that's about the best they can hope for. The USA is untouched by the war, and it's manpower pools have barely been tapped so far...

This basically. I mean its kinda the same scenario with trying to enforce territorial changes on England, except even more so. What precisely is Germany going to do if the US tells em to get stuffed? Load the army up onto a bunch of ships, sail all the way across the Atlantic, fight their way through the USN assets on the East coast, and invade New York City?
 
Does Germany have any means of enforcing that? I'd think that if Germany manages to get France and GB to agree to an armistice, the most Germany can do about the USA is say "Hey, we got France and GB to quit the war, how about we just stop fighting?" Really, that's about the best they can hope for. The USA is untouched by the war, and it's manpower pools have barely been tapped so far...
and here is the winning comment

the war in Europe just ends. German isn't going to annex france. its going to be busy with mittle Europa and well doing something with Austria-Hungary.

The USA collects its money from the British and French and sets up deals with the germans as it is clear they are the ones in charge of things.
 
and here is the winning comment

the war in Europe just ends. German isn't going to annex france. its going to be busy with mittle Europa and well doing something with Austria-Hungary.

The USA collects its money from the British and French and sets up deals with the germans as it is clear they are the ones in charge of things.
Germany could have pulled off the most illogically stunning victory the world had ever seen, winning every battle and losing like 15 total soldiers and they still wouldnt have annexed france, the Kaiserriech didn't want to have a bunch of Frenchmen in their country.

If the Germans managed to win they would have done everything they could to break France and Russia as future threats, that was ultimately their end goal, break the encirclement.
It's telling enough that the Germans planned some kind of polish state at all.
Germany with it's 1914 borders would have nothing but problems with a polish state but they were so minority adverse they looked to take as little polish territory as they thought was logical.
 
and here is the winning comment

the war in Europe just ends. German isn't going to annex france. its going to be busy with mittle Europa and well doing something with Austria-Hungary.

The USA collects its money from the British and French and sets up deals with the germans as it is clear they are the ones in charge of things.
If you haven't done so, take a look at Peebody-Martini and "Stupid luck and happenstance". A great read.
 

Deleted member 1487

I don't have a POD or the experience in knowing the battleground to come up with a scenario where this happens.

But let's say that Germany ends up defeating the Allies. What happens next?
A late war scenario with US entry would have Hindenburg-Ludendorff in charge, so that means it has to be something around the Michael offensive scenario, one where they take Amiens and the Allies react badly, which enables the sequenced offensives to work and they collapse the Allied logistics system, which causes France to make a separate peace as Brit is knocked out of the war for a while (result of Operation Georgette and Michael if they work), which causes Britain to consider making their own deal, as it becomes everyman for himself if France cuts and runs. The US is basically a non-entity as of April 1918 in terms of combat ready armies/divisions, so they aren't able to keep France in the war once the BEF is disabled.

1) Does the Kaiser want to completely humiliate the French in an attempt to demoralize the population? I would assume they would annex the industrial part of France near their border as well as ports to the English Channel and perhaps even the Mediterranean. How far would they cut into France? Would they even want to occupy Paris?
The Kaiser has lost all political power and is nothing more than a figurehead for the H-L soft dictatorship. The question is what do they want and accept. The public and H-L are looking for full victory at this point, so they may well screw up the peace deal depending on the extent of battlefield success. If Paris falls and the French are willing to offer a majorly favorable deal to Germany that isn't a full victory, but one the German public can say makes the war worth it, then they will take it. The tricky part is that Germany isn't strong enough really unless very luck to get a total victory, but H-L and perhaps the public aren't willing to accept anything less...so they kind of need to take Paris and demand and receive unconditional surrender to be satisfied....maybe a Vichy deal a la 1940 if Paris falls? Perhaps the Allies individually freak out, the BEF pulls out, Paris falls due to Germany just being stronger than France alone, the AEF is run down in the retreat to the coast and it's a worst case scenario of cascading disasters for the Allies? Assuming that happens and the Allies play their losing hand terribly, it is possible. So it becomes a 1940 type peace deal and the US is left to make peace to get the AEF back, while the BEF is pulled out and there is a lot of hard feelings all around. Britain makes a deal after weighing it's options and finding that it really doesn't have great ones...and H-L also realizing that they need to cut a deal because they can't touch Britain.

Likely France would suffer terribly in the peace deal, certainly losing maximally at the border, Belgium getting annexed by the Germans (though the Allies keep their colonies and Britain might well just take the Belgian and French ones as an FU to Germany over the outcome in Europe), and France gets a Vichy/Versailles deal and pillaged economically and have their industrial regions occupied and partially dismantled. The Germans aren't going to take major population areas, they already found enough problems with taking Alsace-Lorraine. But they will have bases in France and occupy a lot of it.

I do think Germany would be as cruel as possible. They anointed Wilheim I at Versaille. Their intent in 1914 was to render France unable to attack it on a second front. Why wouldn't they do whatever they could to ensure that would never happen again?
Huh? Wilhelm might not even last beyond the end of the war, H-L might just force his abdication in favor of the Crown Prince. France will be disabled and kept and occupied regional power (how long that lasts is up for debate because Brest-Litovsk is an issue as is Austria-Hungary surviving the end of the war).

2) What happens to England? I assume as part of the terms of peace they would need to hand over some of its colonies abroad? Does Germany try to eclipse England's sea power advantage? If they do find themselves able to do just that, do to they try and strangle England and make it come to heel?
Unlikely to lose anything due to Germany being unable to take it, but probably has to recognize German gains on the continent, eat the debt owed by France and Italy, as well as anything owed by Germany and any other CP nation ever. Germany probably does keep a big navy and expand it to challenge Britain, but post-war the money won't be there to make that happen. Ireland might well get a lot of clandestine German/captured British arms and support from the Germans just to hurt Britain. Likely Britain is safe minus it's massive debt and a lot of defaults on what they are owed. They have a lot of security concerns, so goodbye mobbing and disarmament. Likely they get stuck in a lot of expensive colonial occupations, an arms race, and Ireland on fire. Plus a pissy USA. Germany is way too screwed due to it's occupations all over Europe to actually threaten Britain.

3) What happens to a humbled US? Do they retreat to isolationism? Would they have to take any terms in terms of trade, credit forgiveness, reparations, etc.?
The US takes it's ball and goes home, really pissed at the Europeans and hostile to the Germans for a long time. They are owed heaps by the Brits, who likely can't pay, so that isn't fun. Hard to say what happens with them going forward.
 
Wiking,

The thing is, H-L is wielding most of the power, but constitutionally they don't have that power vested in themselves.

He may currently be effectively a figurehead, but the Kaiser owns the power H-L wields; he's merely delegating it to them during wartime. And if he is forced to abdicate, the Crown Prince (not H-L) will have this constitutional power. (Unless you have evidence you'd like to share with us showing that H-L intended to stage a military coup, and that the Reichstag would support it?)

And whether Kaiser Wilhelm or the "newly-promoted" Crown Prince, the monarch still shares power with the Reichstag. As Count von Hertling understood (see his speech of 19 March 1918) peace treaties had to be "adopted" (i.e. ratified) by the Reichstag.

H-L will NOT be dictating the final terms. Nor will the Kaiser.

And you know the bit in the thread title about "after U.S. involvement"? Well, the U.S. entered the war on April 6, 1917. And as I'm sure you know, on August 19, 1917, the Reichstag passed the Reichstag Peace Resolution (212 votes to 126) calling for a negotiated peace with NO ANNEXATIONS AND NO INDEMNITIES.

So all the dire predictions you made are, respectfully, a bit nonsensical.
 
H & Ls power was assumed legally through the 1851 Prussian Siege Law which arose from the 1848 revolutions. This law gave Corps Area commanders within Germany great powers to run the civil government for the benefit of the military during time of war or revolution, what H & L did was get these Corps Area commanders to fully exercise these powers and coordinated them centrally. They didn't stage a coup and seize control of the Government and Reichstag, it existed alongside them, so when the emergency went away H & L would either have to relinquish control to the intact and existing civilian government/Reichstag or mount an actual military coup. Given that the politicians amended the Treaty of Brest Litovsk in August 1918 I suspect that once hostilities end the civilians would re-exert their control.
 
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