What happens if Germany wins at Stalingrad?

[bernardz]

[QUOTE="wiking, post: 18222612, member: 1487"

https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/1020261.pdf

https://ia600309.us.archive.org/13/...ersFailureInAugust/Too-Little-Too-Late.21.pdf

.[/QUOTE]

I read these two articles which were interesting and thank you for the share.

Let me make a few observations on these articles

The German airforce is running out of oil and trained personnel and Germany is not going to get the Russian oil and much of the damage is in the West so this trend will continue.

After August 1942, it is not possible to make any real dent on the Russian oil production, which means that any POD where the Russian oil production is air bombed and dramatically affected has to commence before Stalingrad is taken which is before this POD. You would need a new POD to make this work.

Lastly, as these articles show, the damage to the Russians is topped at a few months.

 

[King Augeas]

The Blitz was militarily ineffective because the target was not a military one.

The Blitz demonstrates that German medium bombers could dump a load of bombs into a specific area, although London is an easy target because of short flying distances and a distinctive river. It's reasonable to assume that a sustained effort against Baku would cause considerable damage.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

The Blitz was militarily ineffective because the target was not a military one.

The Blitz demonstrates that German medium bombers could dump a load of bombs into a specific area, although London is an easy target because of short flying distances and a distinctive river. It's reasonable to assume that a sustained effort against Baku would cause considerable damage.

Baku oil producing region was quite the area target.

I read these two articles which were interesting and thank you for the share.

Let me make a few observations on these articles

The German airforce is running out of oil and trained personnel and Germany is not going to get the Russian oil and much of the damage is in the West so this trend will continue.

After August 1942, it is not possible to make any real dent on the Russian oil production, which means that any POD where the Russian oil production is air bombed and dramatically affected has to commence before Stalingrad is taken which is before this POD. You would need a new POD to make this work.

Lastly, as these articles show, the damage to the Russians is topped at a few months.

In 1942 that isn't the issue; casualties were higher in Russia than the west that year and so far fuel was holding out and losses were sustainable until the winter hit and units started transferring to the Mediterranean.
Why is it not possible in your opinion that impacting oil was possible? You assert that, but don't actually support it.
Damage was estimated by the author to only last months, but given the historical record of how long the Soviets took to restore output to pre-war levels to the damaged production in Maykop and Grozny, it took years; the Soviets prioritized developing fields near the city of Ufa than repairing damage in the Caucasus. Which means damage really cannot be repaired during the war, only after and TTL output isn't going to rise faster than OTL in and around Ufa to compensate. At best the Soviets get to eat into their strategic reserve.

 

[bernardz]

In 1942 that isn't the issue; casualties were higher in Russia than the west that year and so far fuel was holding out and losses were sustainable until the winter hit and units started transferring to the Mediterranean.
Why is it not possible in your opinion that impacting oil was possible? You assert that, but don't actually support it.

I quoted the articles you posted.

Damage was estimated by the author to only last months, but given the historical record of how long the Soviets took to restore output to pre-war levels to the damaged production in Maykop and Grozny, it took years; the Soviets prioritized developing fields near the city of Ufa than repairing damage in the Caucasus. Which means damage really cannot be repaired during the war, only after and TTL output isn't going to rise faster than OTL in and around Ufa to compensate. At best the Soviets get to eat into their strategic reserve.

Even if I accept all of this, it makes little difference to the Soviet war machine

 

[Byzantine fanatic]

I think I read somewhere that Caucasus - and specifically Baku - supplied some 80% of all Soviet oil.

Taking Stalingrad on the run in August might have been possible, but it should have been possible to cut the pipe lines from Baku and indeed do something on the Caspian sea.

Bombing Baku is difficult - distance and it is a target scattered across some amount of square km.

Whether it is possible to leave Stalingrad alone without getting East of Stalingrad is a good question. Sure, Stalingrad was not an industrial powerhouse in September, but exposing a flank to the garrison is also not a great idea.

If Stalingrad can be 'captured' in August, the entire situation in Caucasus will be vastly different.

But it all comes down to the oil in Baku after all. It has to be captured in '42 for Germany to knock out USSR.

To imagine that German forces could enter Azerbaijan and take Baku was madness. The distance is simply too great. There is no way the Germans ever could have supplied an effort that far from Germany. The logistics of it are impossible.

They couldn't supply Stalingrad effectively either. It was madness to march even further east. Realistically, the Germans should not have passed Rostov on the Don in my opinion. Rostov is reachable from the Black Sea, into which the Don river flows, and could be supplied via boat from Germany's ally Romania. Even then it's a hell of a long way from Germany overland, although it is 300 miles west of Stalingrad.

In 1943 the Germans tried to use the Don as a defensive line after Kursk, but the hurried and unfinished state of the line meant this plan failed and they were overrun. Had they prepared here earlier, in 1942 instead of launching Fall Blau, they might have fared better.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

I quoted the articles you posted.

And I pointed out the issues with that.

Even if I accept all of this, it makes little difference to the Soviet war machine

It will, quite a bit once that strategic reserve runs dry.
http://www.visions.az/en/news/580/588903a7/

 

[Kippiis]

I think Germany still loses as there are logistic problems, occupation resistanse etc.

 

[bernardz]

It will, quite a bit once that strategic reserve runs dry.
http://www.visions.az/en/news/580/588903a7/

It is another interesting article and thanks for the share but I do not see how it helps your case as the writer's conclusion is "However, I do not think that fuel was the decisive factor in the Battle of Stalingrad, but it was of great importance. "

 

[Deleted member 1487]

It is another interesting article and thanks for the share but I do not see how it helps your case as the writer's conclusion is "However, I do not think that fuel was the decisive factor in the Battle of Stalingrad, but it was of great importance. "

What does that have to do with what I was saying? I'm saying it was a long term factor and the impact on the USSR will be 'of great importance' even during Stalingrad.

During the Battle of Kursk more than 204,000 tonnes of fuel were used, some 90 per cent of which came from Baku.

In 1943, Baku supplied to the front as a whole over 5 million tonnes of oil and oil products with more than 2,000 fuel trains dispatched to the front line. If all these trains were put end to end, they would cover 1,245 km!

That Baku was such a prized target for Hitler is evidence of its value in World War II. Commentators like to speculate that without the Katyusha rocket or the T-34 tank the Soviet Union would not have been victorious against Nazi Germany, but without fuel from Baku the Katyusha rocket launchers could not have been put into position and the T-34s would have remained on the production line.

 

[bernardz]

What does that have to do with what I was saying? I'm saying it was a long term factor and the impact on the USSR will be 'of great importance'

There are no long term factors unless Hitler can hold Baku which even in this POD he cannot get too.

even during Stalingrad.

It will have some importance during Stalingrad if the oil runs out for the Soviets which is dubious.

 

[Pulmonic_Consonant]

In the event of a German victory, one that arises due not to a change in Soviet/German strategy but instead because the Germans, for whatever reason, just 'fight better' than the Soviets and take the city long before more Soviets arrive, it is likely that they would be reinforced and resupplied well enough to deflect whatever counterattack they face. This would in essence cripple the Soviet lines in the Caucuses and grant the Germans the initiative to advance for dozens of miles before substantial resistance. The Germans would probably be able to take Baku, and so would be riding high. The propaganda victories of securing the north Caucuses and winning the battle of Stalingrad would be enormous, and by taking the vast majority of Soviet oil supplies, the Soviet war machine would shudder and slow. However, the Soviets would certainly destroy all of the oil pumps and whatever they couldn't carry, so German supply problems would not relent. Further, their line would be stretched out even more than IOTL. Overall, such a victory would probably stretch out the war to end in '47 or so but the Germans would still lose. This scenario doesn't stop the Allies from landing in Normandy, Italy, etc., and would only ensure that, in the cold war, the Soviets would have less of Europe, and be a bit shakier.

 

[bernardz]

In the event of a German victory, one that arises due not to a change in Soviet/German strategy but instead because the Germans, for whatever reason, just 'fight better' than the Soviets and take the city long before more Soviets arrive, it is likely that they would be reinforced and resupplied well enough to deflect whatever counterattack they face. This would in essence cripple the Soviet lines in the Caucuses and grant the Germans the initiative to advance for dozens of miles before substantial resistance..

The Volga river which makes it possible for the Germans here to defend the Russian attack also makes a strong defensive position for the Russians to hold a German advance.

 

[Pulmonic_Consonant]

The Volga river which makes it possible for the Germans here to defend the Russian attack also makes a strong defensive position for the Russians to hold a German advance.

Yeah, but if the majority of Russian forces in the reigon are crushed in Stalingrad and the failed counterattack afterwords, the defensive position afforded by the Volga is pretty irrelevant.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Yeah, but if the majority of Russian forces in the reigon are crushed in Stalingrad and the failed counterattack afterwords, the defensive position afforded by the Volga is pretty irrelevant.

It is still a massive logistical hump to be crossed, which would be a bit of a problem if the existing bridges are blown; I'm not sure whether there are any river boats available either to sustain a force beyond it. To give you a comparison with it's size, it has been called the European Mississippi.
https://www.ehow.com/info_8430693_worlds-widest-rivers.html

The Volga River is the longest river in Europe. It forms Western Russia’s principal waterway. Rising in the Valdai Hills, it flows through more than 3,500 km to empty into the Caspian Sea. The width of the Volga River varies at different points along the route; at times it is 65 km wide(!), at other points its branches stretch from 520 to 3,500 yards. The river is important to the Russian people and is fondly referred to as Mother Volga.

 

[bernardz]

It is still a massive logistical hump to be crossed, which would be a bit of a problem if the existing bridges are blown; I'm not sure whether there are any river boats available either to sustain a force beyond it. To give you a comparison with it's size, it has been called the European Mississippi.
https://www.ehow.com/info_8430693_worlds-widest-rivers.html

Looking at google maps, I estimate that the river at its narrowest is just over a kilometre wide at Stalingrad.

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/48....8.6730742,44.6317873,11.25z/data=!4m2!4m1!3e2

 

[sendô]

The only way to win the game is not to play.

For Army Group South to win in the summer 42 campaign, they need to stick to the original Fall Blau and avoid the strategically irrelevant urban quagmire. Unfortunately (or fortunately) this would require a degree of sanity and a resistance to the urge to interfere from the Austrian Corporal who fancied himself a military strategic genius that is bordering on ASB.

 

[DrakonFin]

It is still a massive logistical hump to be crossed, which would be a bit of a problem if the existing bridges are blown; I'm not sure whether there are any river boats available either to sustain a force beyond it. To give you a comparison with it's size, it has been called the European Mississippi.
https://www.ehow.com/info_8430693_worlds-widest-rivers.html

About the bolded part in your quote: where exactly is the Volga 65 km wide? Some reservoir? It sounds a lot, it would be significantly wider there than what the Gulf of Finland is at its narrowest.

This is just an off-hand question, generally I agree that the Volga would present a major logistical obstacle all by itself, assuming the Soviets destroy the bridges and deny as much in the way of river transport vessels to the Germans as possible.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

About the bolded part in your quote: where exactly is the Volga 65 km wide? Some reservoir? It sounds a lot, it would be significantly wider there than what the Gulf of Finland is at its narrowest.

This is just an off-hand question, generally I agree that the Volga would present a major logistical obstacle all by itself, assuming the Soviets destroy the bridges and deny as much in the way of river transport vessels to the Germans as possible.

Probably. I can't find where on a simple google search.

 

[DrakonFin]

Probably. I can't find where on a simple google search.

I think the pretty much only realistic answer is the Rybinsk Reservoir. Apart from the reservoirs on the way, I'd say that the Volga is not really wider than 10 km anywhere else.

 

[Pulmonic_Consonant]

It is still a massive logistical hump to be crossed, which would be a bit of a problem if the existing bridges are blown; I'm not sure whether there are any river boats available either to sustain a force beyond it. To give you a comparison with it's size, it has been called the European Mississippi.
https://www.ehow.com/info_8430693_worlds-widest-rivers.html

Building a flotilla bridge is absurdly easy, especially if you have nobody, or almost nobody firing on you while you build it. This was an established tactic for getting armies across rivers even before the American civil war.