What else could have happened in Austria 1867 besides ausgleich?

raharris1973

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With any PoD after the battle of sadowa and Austria-Prussian armistice of 1866 what else besides otl's ausgleich and dual monarchy have resulted?

A total Austria-hungary split? Maintenance of a unitary state? A 3 or more way ausgleich?
 
A total split is highly unlikely since the likely consequence of that would be a partition between Prussia/Germany and Russia (with Italy snatching their claimed lands as well) and nobody in the Empire wanted that at that point (except the pangermanists and other radicals, that is).

Vienna taking the Austroslavic approach instead of the pro-Hungarian one of OTL was a definite possibility, but I don't think the Bohemians had enough influence to push it; the Hungarians just had too much of an advantage in that way. Especially with the Magyarophile Empress Elisabeth (Franz Joseph definitely had pro-Magyar tendencies as well; his wife's influence certainly contributes here).

Otherwise, there's the unlikely scenario that Austria simply refuses to compromise whatsoever. Post-Königgratz, I believe there's no way Vienna can maintain the old order, though. There was far too much discontent in the Empire and that would probably destroy it or at least destabilise it significantly.

Unless, now that I think about it, the Austrians don't rush the Ausgleich as per OTL in order to get back at Prussia ASAP, which was poor judgement even without the power of hindsight. In that case, perhaps the Hungarians and Bohemians find common ground and force a different Ausgleich. The results of that idea are rather interesting, though the likely conclusion of that would be Bohemia gaining the same status as Hungary, further devolving the Empire.
 
Otherwise, there's the unlikely scenario that Austria simply refuses to compromise whatsoever. Post-Königgratz, I believe there's no way Vienna can maintain the old order, though. There was far too much discontent in the Empire and that would probably destroy it or at least destabilise it significantly

Also, Austria is up to its ears in debt, and foreign loans will be hard to obtain if internal troubles make it appear a bad risk.


Unless, now that I think about it, the Austrians don't rush the Ausgleich as per OTL in order to get back at Prussia ASAP, which was poor judgement even without the power of hindsight. In that case, perhaps the Hungarians and Bohemians find common ground and force a different Ausgleich. The results of that idea are rather interesting, though the likely conclusion of that would be Bohemia gaining the same status as Hungary, further devolving the Empire.

Trouble is, that puts a massive number of Germans under Czech rule. I can't see Vienna agreeing to that.

The Hungarians wouldn't like it either, as a Czech kingdom might lay claim to the Slovak areas.
 
Pretty sure the Czechs can be dissuaded by the fact that if they do, Austria can claim the Sudetes and dismantle them pretty badly. Plus, Bohemia has no legitimate historical claim on the Slovak lands.

Considering the Bohemian elite was fairly mixed, it's really not putting the German Bohemians under Czech rule. The Germans are definitely not losing their position in Prague anytime soon, even if it finally gains autonomy.
 
Pretty sure the Czechs can be dissuaded by the fact that if they do, Austria can claim the Sudetes and dismantle them pretty badly. Plus, Bohemia has no legitimate historical claim on the Slovak lands.

Considering the Bohemian elite was fairly mixed, it's really not putting the German Bohemians under Czech rule. The Germans are definitely not losing their position in Prague anytime soon, even if it finally gains autonomy.

Maybe, but iirc the Bohemian Diet had a Czech majority from about 1871 even OTL.
 
Would the Austroslavic idea have resulted in a quadripartite state, with Austria, Hungary, Bohemia, and Croatia as constituent parts?
 
Would the Austroslavic idea have resulted in a quadripartite state, with Austria, Hungary, Bohemia, and Croatia as constituent parts?
There were different proposals over the years. Palacký, probably the most prominent supporter, proposed a federation of eight states (which I believe includes Southern Germany; this was in the middle of 1848 after all).
 
Trouble is, that puts a massive number of Germans under Czech rule. I can't see Vienna agreeing to that.

Viennese were willing to negotiate in OTL, it were the german bohemians that blocked any and all legislation on the matter.
 
Pretty sure the Czechs can be dissuaded by the fact that if they do, Austria can claim the Sudetes and dismantle them pretty badly. Plus, Bohemia has no legitimate historical claim on the Slovak lands.

Considering the Bohemian elite was fairly mixed, it's really not putting the German Bohemians under Czech rule. The Germans are definitely not losing their position in Prague anytime soon, even if it finally gains autonomy.

The best possible outcome would be a case where all the nationalities had claims on one another. It wouldn't exactly be peace- more the absence of war- but future generations, less conflict-minded hopefully, might be able to make some headway in that direction. A balance of power writ small.

The Empire could limit itself to those titles that are within the rank of "Kings"- Bohemia, Hungary, Croatia. Maybe Galicia-Lodomeria, but I doubt the elites there would be in a position to negotiate. Thus leaving Vienna in direct control of Galicia-Lodomeria: an interest in securing movement through Bohemia or Hungary. Hungary would be weakened by the separation of Croatia, but with the Second Industrial Revolution would be the strongest power in the Empire- providing incentive for the other three to gang up on it. Croatia could be awarded with Dalmatia to strengthen it further. Probably in a future confrontation Hungary could be divested of Banat and Transylvania? Competition between the four regions could boost economic growth across the board (idk).

The problem here then becomes who would wield the military might. If an Austro-Bohemian-Croatian coalition created an army to protect against Hungary, there would have to be trust between the three parties- the presence of Hungary could either heighten suspicion or- or anything, really.

/brainstorm
 
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The best possible outcome would be a case where all the nationalities had claims on one another. It wouldn't exactly be peace- more the absence of war- but future generations, less conflict-minded hopefully, might be able to make some headway in that direction. A balance of power writ small.

The Empire could limit itself to those titles that are within the rank of "Kings"- Bohemia, Hungary, Croatia. Maybe Galicia-Lodomeria, but I doubt the elites there would be in a position to negotiate. Thus leaving Vienna in direct control of Galicia-Lodomeria: an interest in securing movement through Bohemia or Hungary. Hungary would be weakened by the separation of Croatia, but with the Second Industrial Revolution would be the strongest power in the Empire- providing incentive for the other three to gang up on it. Croatia could be awarded with Dalmatia to strengthen it further. Probably in a future confrontation Hungary could be divested of Banat and Transylvania? Competition between the four regions could boost economic growth across the board (idk).

The problem here then becomes who would wield the military might. If an Austro-Bohemian-Croatian coalition created an army to protect against Hungary, there would have to be trust between the three parties- the presence of Hungary could either heighten suspicion or- or anything, really.

/brainstorm
Suppose Galicia-Lodomeria was assigned to Hungary as compensation for Croatia>
 
The best possible outcome would be a case where all the nationalities had claims on one another. It wouldn't exactly be peace- more the absence of war- but future generations, less conflict-minded hopefully, might be able to make some headway in that direction. A balance of power writ small.

The Empire could limit itself to those titles that are within the rank of "Kings"- Bohemia, Hungary, Croatia. Maybe Galicia-Lodomeria, but I doubt the elites there would be in a position to negotiate. Thus leaving Vienna in direct control of Galicia-Lodomeria: an interest in securing movement through Bohemia or Hungary. Hungary would be weakened by the separation of Croatia, but with the Second Industrial Revolution would be the strongest power in the Empire- providing incentive for the other three to gang up on it. Croatia could be awarded with Dalmatia to strengthen it further. Probably in a future confrontation Hungary could be divested of Banat and Transylvania? Competition between the four regions could boost economic growth across the board (idk).

The problem here then becomes who would wield the military might. If an Austro-Bohemian-Croatian coalition created an army to protect against Hungary, there would have to be trust between the three parties- the presence of Hungary could either heighten suspicion or- or anything, really.

/brainstorm

Hungary's interest in Croatia changed repeatedly. In early-1848, they were unwilling to negociate, but they were willing to let them go by 1849. By 1867 they wanted to keep access to the sea, though, but they were willing to compromise with the Croats as well, uniting Croatia and Slavonia.

An altenative would be, if it's still 1867 or earlier, for the Hungarians to let go of Croatia in exchange of their long-desired union with Transylvania (done in 1848, revoked on '49). Hell, Croatia could be de-jure still part of Hungary, but de facto autonomous and the Sabor (Croation diet) answerable to the Emperor/potential all-empire-Diet directly. Probably by making the Ban of Croatia a ceremonial position appointed by the Diet in Pest[-Buda]. To be fair, as long as the Empire abolishes the customs border between Crownlands (of the most significant thing about the Ausgleich) then access to the sea is not an issue, with Hungarian companies free to invest in Rijeka or, well, any port in the Empire.

There's really no need for conflict. Eventually, Hungary will have to expand the suffrage in the Diet and do something about the Slovaks at the very least. Hell, different coalitions would likely form whenever it is perceived that one nationality has more power and influence over the others. Magyars too powerful? The Austrians and Slavs unite. Slavs too powerful? Austrians and Hungarians get together. Etc. That's the joy of a federalised Austria.

...Until the Socialists show up. Then things get very interesting since the Socialists have a chance of forming a non-national coalition that could overpower any national bloc. In fact, that might be the moment where the ethnic divide becomes less important as long as the Socialists don't fall into different national factions as per OTL.

@Wendell I don't think the Hungarians would want that, though. Nor the Poles or Ruthenians. It would just create more problems for everyone since there arw a lot more Poles than Croats.
 
The ideal situation would be to create a unitary Empire in which all subjects have equal status; that way minorities in one region can appeal to others outside it for protection of their rights.

Could there have been an approach whereby considerably smaller and more numerous regions, based on historical entities, are created with some meaningful local autonomy, subject to the overall federal governance of a Grand Imperial Diet/administration? Neither Austria nor Hungary would exist as separate kingdoms, nor Bohemia nor Croatia; each is subdivided into counties or duchies or whatever, each with their own local administration and councils--Kreis or whatever. None would be nearly big enough to contemplate going it alone; each would have their own ethnic balance of power, sometimes being essentially a big majority of one (German, Magyar, Czech, Moravian, whatever) but most of them would be mixes--most everywhere there are some Germans, often there would be three significant ethnicities.

The Magyars would not like it, they would want a grand Hungarian kingdom (in which Magyars would only be 60 percent or less, but dominating all others). The name of the game is to do an end run around grand nationalities, on paper sacrificing German claims to dominate in the name of a great Imperial union.

As I understand that the way to get that is lots of little bailiwicks in a federation. Is there then any way to

1) get the Germans to drop their own notion of a grand Austria
2) persuade sufficient numbers of local ethnicities to be loyal to this system on the grounds that even if some other group (say Magyars) dominates them numerically as well as through vested power within their county, still their rights as Slovaks or Slovenes or whatever are guaranteed by other blocs of their ethnicity and/or allies at the imperial level
3) distract would-be grand nationalities (mainly Magyars but also perhaps Czechs or Croatians) from the dream of separate nation-states in which they dominate other minorities by suitable local balances of power in the context of the Imperial system
4) persuade a sufficient number of ambitious people of all categories that their opportunities in a large and cosmopolitan Empire are superior to those they might have in several separated nations?

Are such visions completely anachronistic? If the Empire could be reconstituted on these grounds, as essentially one big field in which anyone can aspire to success anywhere within it, it could probably whether the storms of nationalistic separatism of the 20th century pretty well, at least if the thing worked well economically, socially, and politically. Certainly it ought to be stronger militarily come the Great War, if indeed Great Power politics did produce the Central Powers alignment.

It probably would not do to try to call it the Austrian Empire, since that would humiliate at least the Magyars if not just about everyone. Although Napoleon abolished the Holy Roman Empire, could not the Emperors revive the title, on the grounds that it is after all an overwhelmingly Catholic realm? Could it just call itself the Hapsburg Empire perhaps? Danubian is not quite right in view of claims on the Balkan lands, which are pretty important, not to mention Tyrol.

It certainly could not be called Austria-Hungary.

Anyway this is a notion I've long had that is not based on study of the political forces on the ground but on an idealistic top-down solution as much to prevent problems happening generations hence as to deal with the contemporary controversies. Such a solution would not be loved by the Hungarian nationalists--one question would be whether they could accept it at all.

And the biggest question--would anyone in the day have such a vision, and if they did, could they sell it to a sufficient majority to resolve the crisis and keep the Empire together on this basis?
 
....Hell, different coalitions would likely form whenever it is perceived that one nationality has more power and influence over the others. Magyars too powerful? The Austrians and Slavs unite. Slavs too powerful? Austrians and Hungarians get together. Etc. That's the joy of a federalised Austria.

...Until the Socialists show up. Then things get very interesting since the Socialists have a chance of forming a non-national coalition that could overpower any national bloc. In fact, that might be the moment where the ethnic divide becomes less important as long as the Socialists don't fall into different national factions as per OTL.

Yep, this is what I am driving at. The way to prevent invidious persecution of small nationalities is to have a great big empire they can find allies in. And if the Empire has any hope of surviving to modern times, it would be with the help of pan-Imperial Socialists I'd think.

Naturally that is the last thing either Austrian nobility or Hungarian would want to see happen. I'm trying to see if any pan-Imperial visionaries would exist who are willing to set up a universal Empire for the sake of unity--then living with the Socialists becomes a later crisis. One I hope the Socialists win obviously!
 
The ideal situation would be to create a unitary Empire in which all subjects have equal status; that way minorities in one region can appeal to others outside it for protection of their rights.

Could there have been an approach whereby considerably smaller and more numerous regions, based on historical entities, are created with some meaningful local autonomy, subject to the overall federal governance of a Grand Imperial Diet/administration? Neither Austria nor Hungary would exist as separate kingdoms, nor Bohemia nor Croatia; each is subdivided into counties or duchies or whatever, each with their own local administration and councils--Kreis or whatever. None would be nearly big enough to contemplate going it alone; each would have their own ethnic balance of power, sometimes being essentially a big majority of one (German, Magyar, Czech, Moravian, whatever) but most of them would be mixes--most everywhere there are some Germans, often there would be three significant ethnicities.

The Magyars would not like it, they would want a grand Hungarian kingdom (in which Magyars would only be 60 percent or less, but dominating all others). The name of the game is to do an end run around grand nationalities, on paper sacrificing German claims to dominate in the name of a great Imperial union.

As I understand that the way to get that is lots of little bailiwicks in a federation. Is there then any way to

1) get the Germans to drop their own notion of a grand Austria
2) persuade sufficient numbers of local ethnicities to be loyal to this system on the grounds that even if some other group (say Magyars) dominates them numerically as well as through vested power within their county, still their rights as Slovaks or Slovenes or whatever are guaranteed by other blocs of their ethnicity and/or allies at the imperial level
3) distract would-be grand nationalities (mainly Magyars but also perhaps Czechs or Croatians) from the dream of separate nation-states in which they dominate other minorities by suitable local balances of power in the context of the Imperial system
4) persuade a sufficient number of ambitious people of all categories that their opportunities in a large and cosmopolitan Empire are superior to those they might have in several separated nations?

Are such visions completely anachronistic? If the Empire could be reconstituted on these grounds, as essentially one big field in which anyone can aspire to success anywhere within it, it could probably whether the storms of nationalistic separatism of the 20th century pretty well, at least if the thing worked well economically, socially, and politically. Certainly it ought to be stronger militarily come the Great War, if indeed Great Power politics did produce the Central Powers alignment.

It probably would not do to try to call it the Austrian Empire, since that would humiliate at least the Magyars if not just about everyone. Although Napoleon abolished the Holy Roman Empire, could not the Emperors revive the title, on the grounds that it is after all an overwhelmingly Catholic realm? Could it just call itself the Hapsburg Empire perhaps? Danubian is not quite right in view of claims on the Balkan lands, which are pretty important, not to mention Tyrol.

It certainly could not be called Austria-Hungary.

Anyway this is a notion I've long had that is not based on study of the political forces on the ground but on an idealistic top-down solution as much to prevent problems happening generations hence as to deal with the contemporary controversies. Such a solution would not be loved by the Hungarian nationalists--one question would be whether they could accept it at all.

And the biggest question--would anyone in the day have such a vision, and if they did, could they sell it to a sufficient majority to resolve the crisis and keep the Empire together on this basis?
I think people overestimate the Hungarians and their nationalism. The OTL Ausgleich was much more they could ever ask for; they got literally everything they could get. The Magyars as well as the Slavs were more than aware that Austria's existence was necessary to protect them from German and Russian Imperialism. Honestly, the negociations really just needed the Czechs to be involved in order for the Ausgleich to be actual negociations. This way, you can have the different partiea finding common ground, sharing ideas and all instead of the rushed, obviously one-sided Ausgleich of OTL that only enboldened the Magyar nobility. The question is, how do you make Franz Joseph and his administration to take time and think of the long-term instead of their obsession to avenge Sadowa...
 
...Until the Socialists show up. Then things get very interesting since the Socialists have a chance of forming a non-national coalition that could overpower any national bloc. In fact, that might be the moment where the ethnic divide becomes less important as long as the Socialists don't fall into different national factions as per OTL.

Something that transcends nationalism would be nice. A pan-Austrian ideology. Perhaps changing the definition of "Austria" in the minds of citizens? Associating it less with the German Österreich and rather with the concept of a union of central European peoples?

1) get the Germans to drop their own notion of a grand Austria
2) persuade sufficient numbers of local ethnicities to be loyal to this system on the grounds that even if some other group (say Magyars) dominates them numerically as well as through vested power within their county, still their rights as Slovaks or Slovenes or whatever are guaranteed by other blocs of their ethnicity and/or allies at the imperial level
3) distract would-be grand nationalities (mainly Magyars but also perhaps Czechs or Croatians) from the dream of separate nation-states in which they dominate other minorities by suitable local balances of power in the context of the Imperial system
4) persuade a sufficient number of ambitious people of all categories that their opportunities in a large and cosmopolitan Empire are superior to those they might have in several separated nations?

It probably would not do to try to call it the Austrian Empire, since that would humiliate at least the Magyars if not just about everyone. Although Napoleon abolished the Holy Roman Empire, could not the Emperors revive the title, on the grounds that it is after all an overwhelmingly Catholic realm? Could it just call itself the Hapsburg Empire perhaps?

shamelessly takes notes
 
Something that transcends nationalism would be nice. A pan-Austrian ideology. Perhaps changing the definition of "Austria" in the minds of citizens? Associating it less with the German Österreich and rather with the concept of a union of central European peoples?





shamelessly takes notes
You mean shifting the meaning of Austria back to ita pre-1867 meaning? ;)

People tend to forget that 'Austria' meant the entire Empire before the Ausgleich split it between Austria and Hungary, and it's only post-1919 that we have the modern definition of ['German'-]Austria.

I'm personally not for a revival of the Holy Roman Empire. It's an easy way to alienate Protestants and Eastern Christians. I also doubt it's possible; the HRE has a very archaic reputation at that point and the late-empire is a poor example of a centralised state to say the least.

Again, before the OTL Ausgleich happens, the Magyars won't mind being calles part of Austria. They'll just keep their primary identity as Hungarian just like most of the other peoples of the Empire; national identity first.

Of course, there's always the idea of using the 'Danubia' name, but that has become a bit cliché in AH, hasn't it? It's a good idea, though, but not very plausible too early on.
 
snip since this page is already getting horrendously long

I think Shevek23 put it best: Danubia, in the context of Tyrol and Bohemia, is not the best idea; not representative, as it were, of the totality of the peoples contained within Austria. The term "Austrian Empire" should stay as it is, though I for one would certainly not mind "Habsburg Empire" passing into daily usage. But were it to be formalized, it would be a supreme act of egoism, even for the dynasty. Naming a country of millions after themselves? Gross.
 
I think Shevek23 put it best: Danubia, in the context of Tyrol and Bohemia, is not the best idea; not representative, as it were, of the totality of the peoples contained within Austria. The term "Austrian Empire" should stay as it is, though I for one would certainly not mind "Habsburg Empire" passing into daily usage. But were it to be formalized, it would be a supreme act of egoism, even for the dynasty. Naming a country of millions after themselves? Gross.
It's true that Danubia isn't representative of Bohemia and Tyrol (or Galicia for that matter), but the term Donaumonarchie was already in casual use I believe by 1900.

Edit: but yeah, keeping 'Austria' is definitely the better bet.
 
I think Shevek23 put it best: Danubia, in the context of Tyrol and Bohemia, is not the best idea; not representative, as it were, of the totality of the peoples contained within Austria. The term "Austrian Empire" should stay as it is, though I for one would certainly not mind "Habsburg Empire" passing into daily usage. But were it to be formalized, it would be a supreme act of egoism, even for the dynasty. Naming a country of millions after themselves? Gross.


And anyway it already was. "Austrian Empire" signified "Empire of the House of Austria" ie all the possessions of that dynasty, not the Archduchy of Austria alone.

That was no doubt what the Tyrolese had in mind in 1848, when they declared "We stand under no Ministry but under the Count of Tyrol, who is also the Emperor of Austria".
 
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