Just like it says. To what degree would German unification accelerate? Would this strengthen the German Empire or weaken it in lieu of Catholic Austria? How would this alter the course of World War I? Or would it? Would Bavarians still hold contempt for Prussians if they shared Lutheranism?
What Effect Would A Protestant Bavaria Have?
- Thread starter VirginiaHistoryTeacher
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It would be huge. Bavaria as a unitary, modern, staunchly Catholic state was probably the decisive factor for the outbreak of the 30 years' War and the early victories of the Catholic side. Austria would not have been able to pull it off alone. With Bavaria Lutheran, even if it was only the lukewarm, nonmilitant variety so common in Germany at the timew, the earlky seventeenth century would see Austria in a much less favourable position,. Quite possibly there would be no militant Counterreformation, and thus no Bohemian Revolt. If there were, it might well succeed. Bavaria would be a threat to Austria as a potential "protector" of its Lutheran minorities esp. in Upper Austria and Bohemia.
Also, with Bavaria going Lutheran, the chance of Catholicism holding out in the Rhineland diminishes seriously. Bavaria would have limited interest in the imperial status quo (there will certainly not be any talk of an electoral dignity or control of an electorate spiritual). It might decide to deliberately upset the applecart.
No Swedish intervention, most likely. Continuing greater Danish and Dutch influence in Northern Germany. Perhaps Sweden focuses more on Poland and the Baltic (or they don't go abroad killing people, maybe). North and Central Germany would look very different.
No Westphalian settlement. The HRE might fragment, either tearing along confessional lines or, IMO more likely with a return to sanity in Vienna, shedding its northern periphery.
Protestant Bavaria would make a huge difference.
Also, with Bavaria going Lutheran, the chance of Catholicism holding out in the Rhineland diminishes seriously. Bavaria would have limited interest in the imperial status quo (there will certainly not be any talk of an electoral dignity or control of an electorate spiritual). It might decide to deliberately upset the applecart.
No Swedish intervention, most likely. Continuing greater Danish and Dutch influence in Northern Germany. Perhaps Sweden focuses more on Poland and the Baltic (or they don't go abroad killing people, maybe). North and Central Germany would look very different.
No Westphalian settlement. The HRE might fragment, either tearing along confessional lines or, IMO more likely with a return to sanity in Vienna, shedding its northern periphery.
Protestant Bavaria would make a huge difference.
Do you really think the Empire would have shed its northern periphery? I would think with the upset caused by Bavaria the possibility of a Protestant Empire would be alluring/frightening depending upon which side you were on.
IIRC didn't Austria go heavily majority Protestant for a short while until they had their local Counterreformation? If just about all the German states have gone Protestant it does make me wonder how effective they might be trying to reverse the tide.
Assuming that the divide inside the Empire copntinues to play out along religious lines, that might be the case. But a Protestant Bavaria (and Rhineland) suggests that the emperor would need to find a different model to relate to his subjects. Earlier Habsburg rulers had managed to effectively ignore the religious issue in day-to-day politics. But if they are successful at that, the centrifugal forces that were cast into Westphalia IOTL will ultimately end up the main concern of imperial institutions. You have the HRE effectively divided into a 'kaisernah' southern core (multireligious, but politically oriented towards Vienna) and a 'kaiserfern' northern periphery (solidly Protestant and oriented towards its own political concerns). The Empire's next effort to solidify its non-existent control is liable to break something. IOTL the breakup was limited to the most kaiserfern and effectively separate Netherlands. ITTL, without Westphalia to enable the fiction of a continuing Empire, it may well go farther.
I don't think that was ever true for all of Austria, but some regions did. Without the determined efforts of some energetic and very Catholic monarchs, all of the HRE could well have been lost to the Catholic church at that point.
Asami
Banned
Colour me skeptical, but I don't think Islam would've spread all over Europe. That's... not possible unless the Ottomans conquer to the North Sea, and they certainly don't have the ability to do that.
The next emperor would be a protestant prince since, with a protestant Bavaria, Gebhard Truchsess von Waldburg, Archbishop-Elector of Cologne will likely succeed in his goal of turning his electorate into a secular protestant principality with a dynastic line of succession for his descendants, thus tipping the balance in the collegium of electors in favour of the protestant side - the electors of Brandenburg, Saxony and the Palatinate already were protestant by this time, Bohemia was protestant but had a catholic king while the ecclesiastical electorates - Cologne, Mainz and Trier - had up until then remained catholic. So when the protestant Bohemian estates decide to replace their catholic king with a protestant one they will have the by then protestant emperor on their side and from then on a protestant succession of Holy Roman Emperors is almost guaranteed.
The imperial army that broke the siege of Vienna included Protestant troops. That's the thing: the HRE has been designed to work as a multidenominational entity since Augsburg. It was absolute military superiority that motivated the Habsburg/Bavaria alliance to force Counterreformation. No sane emperor would jeopardise it otherwise - and not least for exactly this reason. The Habsburgs needed the Empire's resources to defend their eastern borders.
That said, it is hard to see the Ottomans going much farther even in the absence of a relief army. 1683 is not a good time for them even with the French alliance.
Would the support of a Protestant emperor matter very much? Who (other than Bavaria) has the money and land to project real power? There just aren't that many Protestant big-league princes around. Ironically, the post-revolt king of Bohemia might be the best candidate.
Even if he was not butterflied away entirely, his situation would be dramatically different. The Great Elector is possible in the aftermath of the Thirty Years' War. Absaent that war, he would be looking at a completely different situation. Not that he couldn't be successful in it, but there is no vacuum to fill and no low-hanging fruit in terms of return on state investment.
Gstbschef
Banned
From today's perspective possible. But "the authenticity of the faith" for the emperor and his Empire had great significance (among others, advantage in the battles of unwavering conviction / "by God's favor" - like e.g. effect of Marco d'Aviano in 1683).
Therefore, it should be: motivation for Counterreformation was among others to have "spiritual superiority" (from the religious unity of the Empire) over a barbarous enemy, which always threatened the eastern borders (advancing Ottomans would be closer to Vienna anyway).
Incidentally, from a pragmatic standpoint, 300,000 tolars for the protestant troop that helped defeat the Ottoman siege, it suggests that a future common defense of the borders would be more expensive for imperial treasury. Reportedly, the protestant estates lost uprising in 1620, it was due to lack of funds for foreign mercenaries - on the other hand; carmelite Domingo à Jesu Maria may not rattle thalers when speaking to the troops: "Rely on God and strike!"
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