What effect would a KMT South China have?

First off, let's hose down the TL with liquid handwavium and say that, somehow, the Nationalist armies manage to hold the Yangtze River line in 1949 instead of being driven all the way to Taiwan. An unofficial truce is established (mutual exhaustion, we'll say) and eventually a formal cease-fire. North China is under Soviet protection, South China under US protection.

Thus, the Republic of China (aka South China, capital Nanking) and the People's Republic of China (aka North China, capital Beijing) are born.

Now what? The ripple effects are going to be massive, to say the least. The Korean War is likely to still happen, but it's sure to play out differently. The Red Army can't deploy huge numbers of troops to Korea and still defend the very very long border with South China (South China has the same problem, of course). Will the USSR take a more active role, or give up North Korea as a lost cause rather than risk a general conflict?

What about Communist expansion in general? The Indochinese countries are a lot less likely to go Communist - then again, any South Chinese intervention is going to provoke a nationalist backlash the Communist movements might be able to exploit. Will the area of conflict move to South and Central Asia (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran)?

And then the big one - South China as an Asian Tiger... what happens if/when South China becomes an industrial power with a per capita GNP on par with OTL's South Korea? An economic powerhouse with 500 or so million people and a very large military (because of the continued tension with North China) is going to have enormous effects on the global stage. But what will they be?

Thoughts? Ideas? Comments?
 
The Sino-Soviet split will still occur so you might end up with Nikita and Chang against Nixon and Mao.
 

King Thomas

Banned
By the late 1980's/early 1990's the KMT part becomes rich and democratic whilst the Communist part ends up like North Korea.
 
The Sino-Soviet split will still occur so you might end up with Nikita and Chang against Nixon and Mao.

Would there still be a Sino-Soviet split in this TL? I'm not familiar enough with the period and personalities to say if it would happen or not in a TL where the PRC is considerably weaker and has a thousands-of-miles-long border with a hostile and well-armed enemy to worry about.

By the late 1980's/early 1990's the KMT part becomes rich and democratic whilst the Communist part ends up like North Korea.

Well, that's certainly the easy solution. :D But the PRC didn't end up like North Korea in OTL, so I'm not sure it's fair to consign it to Kim-level lunacy in this TL. As for South China, I imagine it will eventually transform into a democracy like South Korea, Taiwan and Japan have, although the evolution will probably be a painful one.

And then there's the question of Tibet and Xinjiang. Let's say that both of them manage to preserve, or gain in Xinjiang's case, independence during the end of the ATL Chinese Civil War. What happens five or ten years down the road, though? Especially in Tibet, which is right to the China that has to pay at least some attention to international sentiment. Will the Nationalists move in anyway? Further north, does Xinjiang become a magnet for Western anti-communist action when the Red Army invades? (Parallels to events in OTL Central Asia in the 1980s may or may not be appropriate)
 
Bump. Driving today, it hit me that this is going to have some massive impact on the automotive industry. You thought Japan made waves when it entered the scene? Multiply that by five. Lots of ripples there - will there be a protectionist backlash against the automotive "Yellow Peril"? (with or without a tightly protected South China market)
 
Without the South, North China would be unable to achieve the same economic success as in OTL,and it might have its economy stagnate and collapse around the same time as the USSR. If there is a Tiananmen Square Incident, for example, that might be what makes the North join the South.

Also, would both sides have nukes?
 
I don't think the Soviets would allow North China to have nukes. The south under Chiang might very well develop them to establish China as a third power block that will likely hold a big sway in the Third World.
 
I don't think Russia would have that much influence over North China, though there probably will be no Sino-Soviet split. North China could develop nukes if it wanted to, since it undoubtedly has the capability to do so. It would simply take more time, probably nukes by the late 70's or 80's is my guess.

I hate to say it, but it seems like this would just be a blown-up version of Korea, with the North falling behind the South.
 

mowque

Banned
Maybe South China doesn't really side with the USA? I mean this IS the Cold War but South China will be a big place...Maybe more of a India then S. Korea?
 
Yeah, that's probable. It wouldn't be exactly the same as Korea, for example I don't think North China would be as crazy as the DPRK.

Tibet might get subjugated by the KMT, and I don't see India being any different, except maybe taking those disputed territories.
 
I don't think the Soviets would allow North China to have nukes. The south under Chiang might very well develop them to establish China as a third power block that will likely hold a big sway in the Third World.

No way. Not in the 60s.The North got their technologies from sympathetic Soviet scientists, pretty much the complete package, despite the Split.

Who's going to give Chiang his? I can see it happening in the 80s or so, but not before.

Also, consider the lag time. Both S.Korea and Taiwan became OK in right around the 80s, being small and tightly controlled.

S.China is a lot bigger, a lot more splintered, and the KMT are brutal and undiplomatic (they eventually changed, but being utterly crushed does that to you). They'd be busy suppressing rebellions for years, and centralizing years more, and recovering decades. And that's assuming Chiang and co. welcome American guidance alongside the money; that's not a guaranteed thing to start with.

Of course, the North would likely be even worse since it doesn't have the resources of the whole country nor the great ports nor the infrastructure, and the Soviets would meddle to keep them down if they can.

We could have two very poor Chinas instead of just one to this very day, in fact. The South would be catching up to India, and the North would be worse.
 
A couple of thoughts:

I recall Chiang's thoughts in OTL up to his death was to reinvade Mainland China. After all, he was the one that did things like keep a Opium running army in Southeast Asia, kidnap Mainland Chinese fisherman from the Taiwan strait and keep an unreasonable amount of land troops in Taiwan, even though the island is better defended with a navy/airforce.

What prevents another Regional Civil War outbreak in the 60s or 70s? I'm not absolutely certain on Mao, but I'm relatively certain Chiang would be raring to take advantage of any perceived weakness, confusion or other random event in Northern China to invade.

With Chiang's presence in South China, would the Vietnam War even happen?
 

Hyperion

Banned
One thing that I wonder, and this has probably been beaten to death several times.

If southern China is under a somewhat Democratic pro western government rule, how might this affect the status of Hong Kong?

The PRC would have wanted the territory back to kick out western influence, maybe exploit the business opportunity of the territory, and sideline any pro democracy stuff.

The ROC might not mind if Britain retains the territory, if a generous enough deal is reached in the negotiation table. Given that Britain would possibly recognize the democratic China and maybe discuss relations over the Hong Kong territory a decade or so sooner than in OTL, Britain might get to keep Hong Kong.

The ROC gets cash from the UK, and the occasional stopover of a RN carrier group gives the PRC pause up north.
 
Hong Kong becomes a divided city, like Berlin.

That wouldn't work: most of the population lives on Kowloon and commutes to work in Victoria (though many do the opposite). Just as importantly, the water and electricity supplies are located on Kowloon and in the New Territories also.
 

Hyperion

Banned
Hong Kong becomes a divided city, like Berlin.

I was thinking more along the line that Britain would make a deal with the ROC that would allow them to retain the whole of the territory, including the New Territories, in perpetuity.

It would have to be something like that, or Britain leaves as in OTL. As Hong Kong would be in southern China, far away from the PRC, if Britain hands it over the Chinese rule again, it would remain solely under ROC rule, and the PRC wouldn't get a say in it.
 
I don't see the KMT being able or Willing to enforce the 1 child policy.
So whe reach the early 21st with over a Billion people in SChina, and a Birth rate above 2.5~3.0 and another 500 ~ 600 Million in NChina. compared to OTL's 1 billion in the entire country and a rate of 1.7~1.8 [Below ZPG]
 
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