Assuming US never gets possession of the Philippines, perhaps the Spanish stay, or the Germans, the French, the Japanese take over, or they become a successful independent nation. Does the US still try to get colonies in East Asia or is the central Pacific as far west as it goes? If the former, where does US acquire territory? Is it feasible to buy the Dutch East Indies?
What does the US do if it doesn’t get the Philippines?
- Thread starter Richard V
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- the philippines
If you count southeast Asia as the southern part of east Asia, then the Philippines was the only US colony in east Asia. Guam and the Northern Marianas are in Oceania, not Asia. The fate of the Philippines depends on what keeps the USA from getting it. If the Spanish-American War still happens without the USA making it a territory, then it probably becomes independent, though it may go to the Germans. I doubt the USA would buy the Dutch East Indies. Firstly the Netherlands won't sell it without a fight. I suppose if you manage to get a POTUS sufficiently sympathetic to Venezuela (or create enough political pressure on Teddy) you could get the USA go go to war against the Netherlands in the Dutch-Venezuela Crisis of 1908, but even if the US annexed something, it would most likely be Suriname and/or the islands of the Dutch West Indies. Around the turn of the century, the ideas of the Monroe Doctrine, which originally meant preventing further European colonization of the Americas, and Manifest Destiny, which originally meant stretching from the Atlantic to the Pacific, were expanding and overlapping enough to bring that about. The Philippines were in a good spot for a coaling station, particularly if the USA also got Guam and Hawaii (not annexed as part of the war but annexed the same year although the US-backed coup had been earlier). It's not ASB to make the Dutch East Indies an American colony but I don't think it's likely.
What about if another colonial power took the Philippines before 1898? If the Spanish-American War still takes place does US grab Spanish East Indies? I think this is likely since that same year US grabbed Hawaii and with it Hawaiian colonies of Palmyra and Johnston Atolls. There’s no reason it wouldn’t take Wake since it was unclaimed. Then add to this Spanish East Indies is annexed instead of being bought by the Germans.
I wonder what American imperial presence in Asia would look like in this scenario. It’s not as established without the Philippines but it’s still an adjacent power.
That would depend on if that other colonial power took them first. If it's Germany, they're also taking at least the Caroline Islands.
Spain retains the Philippines - becomes the seat of the Spanish monarchy-in-exile after 1931 
Maybe in 1898 the US turned east to go after the Spanish holdings in the Bight of Biafra rather than west to the Philippines...
Maybe in 1898 the US turned east to go after the Spanish holdings in the Bight of Biafra rather than west to the Philippines...
They were well on their way to becoming fully independent during the Philippine Revolution before being invaded by America, so if we averted the Spanish-American War or if America does not press its claim on the Philippines (very unlikely unless we're dealing with an alt anti-Imperialist President), it's possible that First Philippine Republic remains a independent state in Asia.
I still think America will be very much involved in Filipino politics regardless due to the Philippines's position in the East and its proximity to its colonies in Guam and other holdings in the East. How that they will manifest would be very interesting amidst competing interests from the British, Dutch, and the Germans, although I'm leaning towards an economic partnership and a military alliance so America maintains influence over the East while the Philippines gains protection and investment from American companies.
I still think America will be very much involved in Filipino politics regardless due to the Philippines's position in the East and its proximity to its colonies in Guam and other holdings in the East. How that they will manifest would be very interesting amidst competing interests from the British, Dutch, and the Germans, although I'm leaning towards an economic partnership and a military alliance so America maintains influence over the East while the Philippines gains protection and investment from American companies.
Emperor-of-New-Zealand
Kicked
They might just lease Manila as a port if it's an independent Philippines or Japanese (perhaps even Spanish, if there's no war and the Spanish are strapped for cash). Not sure what the case would be if it was held by the Germans.
The Philippines might be allowed to be "independent" in the same way Cuba was. The USA gets a navel base and dominates the economy but the Philippines gets to govern itself, so long as it does nothing to offend said American companies.
The USA will never allow Germany to get the Philippines. It will either intervene to defend the new nation or else annex it itself.
The USA will never allow Germany to get the Philippines. It will either intervene to defend the new nation or else annex it itself.
The Americans had interests in northern Borneo and in Taiwan/eastern China, but it's hard to see those becoming more important to the U.S. without also possessing the Philippines. If this changes anything, it might effect U.S. interests in the Central Pacific, leading Washington to press harder on those claims and/or to acquire from Spain the Caroline Islands, (Northern) Mariana Islands (Assuming the U.S. still takes Guam), and Palau. You have to remember, taking the Philippines in OTL was a bit of an afterthought.
This seems likely. It gives the US what it ultimately wanted anyway (a naval/coaling station way out there in the Pacific) and not having a colony in the Philippines to manage (as bad as the US occupation was, it did have at the end of it independence in mind). This might be a better scenario than the OTL one... US base and no horrible Philippine war...
IIRC, the US had designs on Subic Bay, which would act as a Pacific version of Guantanamo.
They will try to have a very close relations with them constantly giving them aid to prevent another foreign power from getting them, Especially germany. Maybe a Filipino American alliance will bloom?