What does the High Seas fleet do if Britain stays neutral?

Correct, at least until Russia is defeated. Then the situation is whatever Germany wants, Germany does. Since the British blockade violates all standards of international law, then if Germany wants to swallow Belgium and race for the sea, all Germany has to do is mass 200 CP divisions on the Belgian border, then call Britain's bluff in the Channel with a few warships coupled with the warning that Britain either withdraws its illegal naval pledge or the 1839 Treaty is null and void. Does Britain now want to honour its commitment to France or its commitment to Belgium?
One thing to remember however is that France will be in a better position at first without the loss of industrial resources in Belgium, and Britain won't be just sitting tight and hoping for the best, they'll be preparing for war themselves, regardless of whether or not they think they'll actually get involved.

What might happen is that Italy declares for the CP, and hits France from the south, but even that may or may not balance out the gains elsewhere.
 
One thing to remember however is that France will be in a better position at first without the loss of industrial resources in Belgium, and Britain won't be just sitting tight and hoping for the best, they'll be preparing for war themselves, regardless of whether or not they think they'll actually get involved.

What might happen is that Italy declares for the CP, and hits France from the south, but even that may or may not balance out the gains elsewhere.

Those are all good points. Generally, if Britain is neutral Germany holds the initiative politically and militarily. While Russia remains in the war it will use these advantages to keep Britain neutral and Russia isolated and to pile on new partners against Russia, (ie., Japan, Rumania). After Russia goes, it will use them to defeat or cow France.
 
It rusts at anchor.

Sort of like it did for 90% of the war.

So would a mostly idle fleet's role be discredited or reaffirmed?

I suspect that whether or not it actually performed a useful role, the flawed but persistent concept that the fleet in the North Sea would pose a sufficient threat to Britain to serve as leverage against intervention might be somewhat validated - as long as Britain did indeed stay neutral for any significant portion of the conflict. With the Entente broken for the foreseeable future, an emboldened Germany could get away with antagonizing Britain with another naval buildup.
 
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Did its job...

If Britain says neutral, then the High Seas Fleet has accomplished its purpose--keeping Britain out. That is a greater feat--at least in the eyes of the politicians--than anything else it could pull off. If the politicians don't believe this, Tirpitz will be sure to let them know...
 
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