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Let's say that a day or 2 after Sicklecut begins, the Soviets invade western Poland. Completely outnumbered in the east, the Germans are forced to switch to the defensive in France and move forces to Poland. The Germans manage to hold at the Oder however in France the allies seize their oppurtunity, mounting a counter offensive, pushing the Germans back into Belgium and evntually northern Germany. Grasping the oppurtunity, Mussolini invades Austria from the south leading to the Germans being trapped in a 3 way vice. By late 1940, German offciers stage a coup and surrender conditionally to the allies, needing to demilitarise their western border, return to 1938 borders and lose all land east of the Oder to the new peoples republic of Poland.

With the war in Europe now over, what does Japan do? Invade South East Asia anyway? Pull out of China?
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