What does Europe look like if Germany wins WWI, but Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans still collapse?

Well, “win” is a strong word here - I am thinking of a scenario where Germany still loses its overseas colonies, manage to obtain a white peace on the Western Front, and get to hold on to Brest-Litovsk borders in the east. I am led to believe that this is a plausible scenario for a late-stage Central Powers victory. That said, both of Germany’s chief partners at the time were in very rough spots, and even if a POD sometime in early 1918 is enough to save the German Empire, it might not be enough to save the Austro-Hungary or the Ottoman Empire.

So, how would the fall of those two empires play out in a world where Germany, though badly mauled by war, remains undefeated? Folks have argued that even a less harsh Treaty of Versailles in an Entente victory scenario could have opened the door for the Republic of German-Austria to join Germany, so it seems very likely to me that Austria, Bohemia, and other parts of the former Habsburg realms with large German populations will go to Berlin. What about the division of the rest of the empire - do we get a larger Hungary?

What about the Ottoman Empire? That seems a little further away from Germany’s reach, so would Britain, France, Italy, and the other Western Allies still play a large role in managing the collapse of that power? How might borders look different in Anatolia, the Balkans, and the Middle East? Might this be a scenario with a larger Armenia and Greece and an independent Kurdistan? In any case, could the House of Osman maintain their rule in the Turkish lands?

Could Bulgaria actually be the big winner of this scenario? Aside from making gains against the Entente countries in the region, might Germany push to secure the entirety Thrace and perhaps even Constantinople for their surviving ally, given the collapse of the Ottoman Empire? This was territory that Bulgaria was interested in, as demonstrated by the First Balkan War, and from Berlin’s perspective it would be a way to keep the Bosporus in friendly hands.

What would be the next move for the rump USSR?

Finally, how might this scenario set up another general European conflict?
 
So if we assume Germans do better on western front 1918 (perhaps a no Ludendorf economic plan POD, means Germany has a bit more strength or their March attack is a little more focused south, regardless of the actual POD Germany takes Amiens somehow March/April 1918).

Background:

Allies remain on defensive on all fronts 1918 recovering with a big push expected 1919.
Germany while securing strategic and economic regions in France, have spent themselves attacking in the west in 1918, their allies are shaky, anticipates an Allied victory in 1919.
The Allies while expecting ultimate victory, anticipate an expensive offensive in 1919.
By January 1919 it is obvious the Uboat offensive has failed and massive American supplies and reinforcements continue to come in.

Germany and Austria in early January 1919 request a peace conference, the Allies respond that no peace conference can occur with the Germans occupying France and Belgium and engaging in unrestricted submarine warfare. Germany agrees to withdraw from France and Belgium without demolitions and suspend submarine warfare for a peace conference, a one month armistice is agreed to for Germany to withdraw.

Final peace:
1) Germany loses her colonies.
2) Pays reparations to private citizens in France/Belgium.
3) Germany agrees to scrap her entire submarine fleet, no new Naval construction for 10 years, and no more than 50% of British strength in all other types.
4) Germany agrees to no bombers (single engine fighters allowed)
6) Germany agrees to no artillery > 150 mm
7) Status quo borders (Germany might have to give up Strasbourg and Metz to get peace but that is just details).
8) Britain retains Palestine and Baghdad from Ottomans.
9) Bulgaria gets southern Dobruja from Rommania.
10) Romania gets Bessarbia in exchange
11) Ottomans get the little strip of Thrace they had to cede to get Bulgaria in the war in 1915 back, plus Kars and Batum, plus northern Dobruja in exchange for their losses to Britain.
12) Serbia restored.
13) Albania Italian (Austria might have to give up Trieste to Italy to get peace but that is details)


Results:
a) Germany is going to have to prop up Austria-Hungary, Concern about adding a bunch of Catholic Germans, changing the political balance of Germany, plus there are German scattered everywhere in Austria-Hungary, means its better to prop up Austria than to annex parts. Austria is now sort of a German client state.
b) Turkey is probably better off without trying to hold the Arab regions its has lost. It has lost stuff and gained stuff, but its traditional enemy Russia has been weakened and probably keeps Mosul oil and Syria.
c) Germany has to spend a lot to keep up its new order in the east, support Austria, but the imposed reduced military spending on the Navy helps.
d) Britain is good with this peace, She picked up colonies, limited the German navy, removed threats to the Suez Canal, Red Sea and Persian Gulf. A potential future Russian Naval threat has also been removed.
e) France, if she can get Metz and/or Strasbourg back, plus colonies, would be somewhat happy, otherwise she would not be happy.
f) Italy would not be happy, regardless if she can pick up some little bits from Austria, she wasn't really happy OTL and this is worse.
g) Bulgaria just has to be happy with a little territorial gain.
h) USA is unhappy, she can console herself that her entry denied a complete German victory, but no real victory obtained.
i) Japan pretty happy as in OTL.
h) Soviets would still consolidate control. If no revolution occurs in Germany and the Ukraine and Georgia are German client states, their certainly worse off than OTL.
 

gurgu

Banned
first of all, white peace with western front means it could keep at least the African colonies.
may i propose a decent scenario more detailed, then if you agree i might be able to propose ad idea:
pod: before the US enter the war Germany to agrees for peace( Britain agrees, france is just and arrogant bunch of revanchist politicians, they will agree if US forces them). The peace, establishes a status quo in the western border and Germany can keep some of it's colonies( only Africa part were is von lettow) japan keeps the pacific conquests. Brest litovsk confirmed.
Balkans 1917:
  • Serbia loses macedonia and pirot, de jure free de facto Austrian puppet
  • Montenegro annexed to Austria
  • Albania neutral, italian sphere
  • Greece loses north of Salonika(included), all the isles excpet negroponte,corfu and crete
  • Romania returns Bucovina to Austria, Bessarabia is independent Moldavia not Romanian, dobruja lost, land locked
  • Bulgaria basically enforces the santo stefano treaty+ Salonika+ dobruja, Tsar Ferdinand declares third Bulgarian empire( similar to the second in dimensions).
  • OE gains the isles of aegean
Middle east 1917:
status quo as western front

1917 :
Italy extra pissed for not gaining anything,France economy destroyed, Germany is considered the real winner, Austria is facing the incoronation od Karl I and OE is facing enormous amount of rebellions. England meh

1918:
Austria:
Karl I doesn't make the promised reforms and wants to keep only the dual monarchy, nation explodes in revolts and since Germany is not willing to help( just dismissed the army) the AH (literally) armies are unable to stop the declaration of independence of Bohemia( Czechia + minor parts of Slovakia), Croatia, Bosnia and vojvodina join Serbian annulling the short period of puppet state, Montenegro re-freed and Transylvania takes freedom( Bulgaria threats Romania from unifying with them). The remains of the great Hapsburg empire are the dual monarchy+ Slovakia and Slovenia.​
OE:
Few reform are made, but rebellions spark everywhere: Syria, Palestine, Iraq, Yemen, Arabia, Kurdistan, Armenia and Georgia are freed. Bulgaria after getting a cart Blanche from Germany( they understood Bulgaria is the only stable ally of the CP, and are focusing to save AH) seizes Constantinople, the major claimant Russia is busy with reds vs white so no actual protests. The city is renamed Tsarigrad and Turks are expelled, Haghia Sophia is again Orthodox( minor relation improvement with all the orthodox) and and Ferdinand I is recognized from Germany and AH( and slowly by everyone) de facto emperor( he was the jure emperor of Bulgarians, tsar).​


is this pod good, or do you want it different?
 
Interesting scenario here. I can't say that I am the best-versed in the groundgame at the time of latter WWI, but in a scenario wherein Germany is considered the "victor" while managing a white peace in the West and a near-total victory in the East, you might see a peace similar to this:
  • Creation/consolidation and international recognition of the Kingdom of Lithuania and the United Baltic Duchy, the former to function as an effective client and buffer state and the latter liable to be effectively annexed to Germany at some point in the future.
  • Possible annexation of a Polish border strip and subsequent deportations/resettlement.
  • Austro-Hungarian collapse cycle is likely unavoidable without extensive military support, which at the current achieving of peace is probably going to be rendered impossible by public and political appeal. As such:
    • As per Kaiser Karl's ambitions late-war, Galicia-Lodomeria is probably ceded to join Poland while the remainder of Cisleithenia transforms into a confederal state with self-governance for the Germans, Czechs, and South Slavs (while OTL he wanted to keep the Ukrainians within the empire, this seems unlikely to work in the long run - they may either be adjoined to Poland or to the newly-independent Ukraine).
    • Yugoslavian ambitions probably result in the formation of at least a small Yugoslavia comprising Serb, Bosniak, and most Croatian regions of the former empire. The Slovenes might attempt to join, but would probably be kept within Austria due to their low numbers and direct neighboring of Austria proper (as well as pan-Slavic ambitions being mollified by confederal government).
    • Hungary probably secedes from Austria, which given the situation on the ground is probably accepted by Germany due to Austrian weakness and the inability for military projection into the Pannonian without extensive campaigning. Some concessions will probably have to be made to Romania and Serbia/Yugoslavia in order to keep the peace, as well as to any German-majority regions (an autonomous zone for the Danube Swabians may be established; an equivalent to the Banat Republic is unlikely to form independently, yet Germany is unlikely to ignore their existence completely), but any Trianon-level treaty is unlikely - this Hungary probably retains at a minimum Slovakia and some parts of Transylvania.
    • Italy probably gets at least some of South Tyrol, though probably only the Italian-majority sections in the South.
  • Bulgaria probably either gets off with no territorial reductions or obtains some concessions from the Serb/Yugoslavian state as a compromise for their gaining territory from the moribund Austro-Hungarian Empire, probably in Northern Macedonia.
  • Having a victorious Germany rather than a shelled-out one is going to marginally help the Ottomans, but they are still going through their collapse cycle between the revolting Arabs and their beginning of the Armenian, Greek, and Assyrian genocides.
 
Great thoughts, but no one finds it likely that Germany would annex an Austria shorn of most or all of its empire? They were open to doing so after the war in our timeline, so would a near-run victory be so different from a near-run defeat in this regard?
 
The Ottoman Empire hardly collapsed. The Empire was intact while being violently dismembered by the entente.

But that is just it. If Germany is in a position where they have to consolidate their new sphere in Central and Eastern Europe and put down Spartacist revolts at home, all while remaining paranoid that one wrong move will mean a Soviet invasion from the east, might they find it more convenient to look the other way as the Entente partitions the Ottoman Empire?
 

Anderman

Donor
If Austria-Hungary collapses Germany will annex Austria plus Bohemia Morovia and most likely Slovenia. But not Hungary or large part of Poland.
 
But that is just it. If Germany is in a position where they have to consolidate their new sphere in Central and Eastern Europe and put down Spartacist revolts at home, all while remaining paranoid that one wrong move will mean a Soviet invasion from the east, might they find it more convenient to look the other way as the Entente partitions the Ottoman Empire?

Collapse and being dismemberded from outside factors are two different things IMO. Austria-Hungary collapsed, the Ottomans didn't.

The Soviets are no threat for the Germans in the early 20s. Germany can just let Austria-Hungary or the Ottomans fall in the abyss. Other than losing an ally or two and losing investments they used in the Ottoman Empire. Depends on what Germany prefers. Normally, I'd say if they are in a position to win, they are in a position to save all benefits they can use in their allies lands.
 
The Soviets are no threat for the Germans in the early 20s. Germany can just let Austria-Hungary or the Ottomans fall in the abyss.

Well, just because we know that in hindsight does not mean that the Germans would have operated as though that were the case. Wasn’t Ludendorff paranoid about communist agitation?
 
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