Well, “win” is a strong word here - I am thinking of a scenario where Germany still loses its overseas colonies, manage to obtain a white peace on the Western Front, and get to hold on to Brest-Litovsk borders in the east. I am led to believe that this is a plausible scenario for a late-stage Central Powers victory. That said, both of Germany’s chief partners at the time were in very rough spots, and even if a POD sometime in early 1918 is enough to save the German Empire, it might not be enough to save the Austro-Hungary or the Ottoman Empire.
So, how would the fall of those two empires play out in a world where Germany, though badly mauled by war, remains undefeated? Folks have argued that even a less harsh Treaty of Versailles in an Entente victory scenario could have opened the door for the Republic of German-Austria to join Germany, so it seems very likely to me that Austria, Bohemia, and other parts of the former Habsburg realms with large German populations will go to Berlin. What about the division of the rest of the empire - do we get a larger Hungary?
What about the Ottoman Empire? That seems a little further away from Germany’s reach, so would Britain, France, Italy, and the other Western Allies still play a large role in managing the collapse of that power? How might borders look different in Anatolia, the Balkans, and the Middle East? Might this be a scenario with a larger Armenia and Greece and an independent Kurdistan? In any case, could the House of Osman maintain their rule in the Turkish lands?
Could Bulgaria actually be the big winner of this scenario? Aside from making gains against the Entente countries in the region, might Germany push to secure the entirety Thrace and perhaps even Constantinople for their surviving ally, given the collapse of the Ottoman Empire? This was territory that Bulgaria was interested in, as demonstrated by the First Balkan War, and from Berlin’s perspective it would be a way to keep the Bosporus in friendly hands.
What would be the next move for the rump USSR?
Finally, how might this scenario set up another general European conflict?
So, how would the fall of those two empires play out in a world where Germany, though badly mauled by war, remains undefeated? Folks have argued that even a less harsh Treaty of Versailles in an Entente victory scenario could have opened the door for the Republic of German-Austria to join Germany, so it seems very likely to me that Austria, Bohemia, and other parts of the former Habsburg realms with large German populations will go to Berlin. What about the division of the rest of the empire - do we get a larger Hungary?
What about the Ottoman Empire? That seems a little further away from Germany’s reach, so would Britain, France, Italy, and the other Western Allies still play a large role in managing the collapse of that power? How might borders look different in Anatolia, the Balkans, and the Middle East? Might this be a scenario with a larger Armenia and Greece and an independent Kurdistan? In any case, could the House of Osman maintain their rule in the Turkish lands?
Could Bulgaria actually be the big winner of this scenario? Aside from making gains against the Entente countries in the region, might Germany push to secure the entirety Thrace and perhaps even Constantinople for their surviving ally, given the collapse of the Ottoman Empire? This was territory that Bulgaria was interested in, as demonstrated by the First Balkan War, and from Berlin’s perspective it would be a way to keep the Bosporus in friendly hands.
What would be the next move for the rump USSR?
Finally, how might this scenario set up another general European conflict?