What does an Allied Italy look like before, during, and after World War 2?

[M79]

As late as April 1935 Mussolini stressed the need for cooperation with the West and containment of Germany via the Stresa Front, which fell apart i the face of the invasion if Ethiopea and the Anglo-German Naval Agreement. But suppose Italy remains firm with the Western Allies against Hitler and assuming a war still happens - how does the lead up to the war change? What does Italy look like during the war itself? What territories might it expand into after the conflict is over?

Stresa Front - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Fries]

Around the world, you'd probably see a bigger general acceptance of fascism and more "Nazism isn't fascism!" style arguments (including from the Italian government). I wouldn't be surprised if fascism becomes a new revolutionary anti-(existing)authority trend like leftism did in the US with groups like the Weather Underground. At the same time, you might see a tripolar Cold War between the US, USSR, and Italy. The latter would likely be at the head of a fascist and/or fascist-adjacent bloc in the Mediterranean possibly consisting of themselves, Spain, Croatia (assuming it exists), Greece, some Middle Eastern nations (I'm thinking Syria, Iraq, and maybe Yemen), and maybe countries like Argentina if America lets it spread into their hemisphere (which they probably wouldn't. Gotta keep that imperial hegemony).

There's a general opinion in AHTLs with a surviving fascist Italy that fascism eventually fades away over time. I'm not sure if I agree with that. The only way I could see fascism really be challenged is by economic crisis or total political upheaval which may come as a result of an oil crisis in the Middle East (if it ever happens). Fascism was so ingrained to the people's minds by design --- it's basically a government-enforced Stockholm syndrome.

If fascism does fall, then we'd probably see some nasty shit coming out of Italian Africa which Italy would likely try to hold onto for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if Italian settlers in Libya, Eritrea, and Somalia (assuming Italy never invades Ethiopia and abandons Stresa) try to enforce their own Rhodesias and/or cause the colonies to fall into civil war between native groups and Italian settlers.

 

[ahmedali]

Around the world, you'd probably see a bigger general acceptance of fascism and more "Nazism isn't fascism!" style arguments (including from the Italian government). I wouldn't be surprised if fascism becomes a new revolutionary anti-(existing)authority trend like leftism did in the US with groups like the Weather Underground. At the same time, you might see a tripolar Cold War between the US, USSR, and Italy. The latter would likely be at the head of a fascist and/or fascist-adjacent bloc in the Mediterranean possibly consisting of themselves, Spain, Croatia (assuming it exists), Greece, some Middle Eastern nations (I'm thinking Syria, Iraq, and maybe Yemen), and maybe countries like Argentina if America lets it spread into their hemisphere (which they probably wouldn't. Gotta keep that imperial hegemony).

There's a general opinion in AHTLs with a surviving fascist Italy that fascism eventually fades away over time. I'm not sure if I agree with that. The only way I could see fascism really be challenged is by economic crisis or total political upheaval which may come as a result of an oil crisis in the Middle East (if it ever happens). Fascism was so ingrained to the people's minds by design --- it's basically a government-enforced Stockholm syndrome.

If fascism does fall, then we'd probably see some nasty shit coming out of Italian Africa which Italy would likely try to hold onto for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if Italian settlers in Libya, Eritrea, and Somalia (assuming Italy never invades Ethiopia and abandons Stresa) try to enforce their own Rhodesias and/or cause the colonies to fall into civil war between native groups and Italian settlers.

Frankly, I think that Eritrea, Somalia and Ethiopia are more viable Italians than Libya.

(Libya hated the bowels of the Italians, and the Italians could hardly put down the rebellions, so if anything, Libya would be like Guinea-Bissau for Portugal)

And fascism, I don't see it continuing for long after 1946 (Umberto II hates Mussolini so much and his father's death would mean the army's loyalty to him and he could simply drive the fascists out of the government)

But I agree that fascism will not be seen as Nazism

 

[marathag]

Frankly, I think that Eritrea, Somalia and Ethiopia are more viable Italians than Libya.

(Libya hated the bowels of the Italians, and the Italians could hardly put down the rebellions, so if anything, Libya would be like Guinea-Bissau for Portugal)

And fascism, I don't see it continuing for long after 1946 (Umberto II hates Mussolini so much and his father's death would mean the army's loyalty to him and he could simply drive the fascists out of the government)

But I agree that fascism will not be seen as Nazism

Libya was lower population, and higher percentage on Italian colonists. And had been putting down the Rebellions. As an Allied Power, will have a winning reputation in this TL, unlike the French or Dutch, that undercut their colonial ambitions.
Even with new King Umberto II, he doesn't have the. Political pull to unseat Fascists that guided Italy successfully thru a World War.

 

[lukedalton]

(Libya hated the bowels of the Italians, and the Italians could hardly put down the rebellions, so if anything, Libya would be like Guinea-Bissau for Portugal)

By mid 30's the lybian are so cowed that don't even think to look funny at the italians; Graziani (and his peers naturally) was a bloodthirsty bastard but he had done a throughtfull work in breaking the libian rebelliont through pure terrorism, deportation and other 'niceties'; add to that the fascist plan to send a lot of colonist there and you will have to wait till the 60's and a new generation before there will be any possibility of rebellion.

 

[Evil Crusader]

Frankly, I think that Eritrea, Somalia and Ethiopia are more viable Italians than Libya.

Ethiopia had 15M people to Libya's 700k; it also is far more remote from Italy, and better suited for eternal guerilla, while Libya was already partially incorporated as part of the metropolis, flooded with colonists, and known to host eventually exploitable, highly desirable, vast oil resources.

 

[ahmedali]

Ethiopia had 15M people to Libya's 700k; it also is far more remote from Italy, and better suited for eternal guerilla, while Libya was already partially incorporated as part of the metropolis, flooded with colonists, and known to host eventually exploitable vast oil resources.

By mid 30's the lybian are so cowed that don't even think to look funny at the italians; Graziani (and his peers naturally) was a bloodthirsty bastard but he had done a throughtfull work in breaking the libian rebelliont through pure terrorism, deportation and other 'niceties'; add to that the fascist plan to send a lot of colonist there and you will have to wait till the 60's and a new generation before there will be any possibility of rebellion.

Unlike Ethiopia, Libya has neighbors who support it (Egypt, Tunisia, Sudan and Algeria).

So they can imitate Algeria (Italian military and political victory for Libya)

Given that the Cold War remains a thing and the Soviets will continue to support and finance decolonization

You cannot be certain that Libya will remain Italian

 

[skarosianlifeform]

List of countries by population in 1939 - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Algeria in 1939 had 7 million people. So far more populated than Libya which only had 893K.

Algerian nationalists managed in the 50s to get a political victory despite the French military supremacy, but Libyan nationalists would be hard pressed to do the same with a population seven times smaller.

Also, France wasn't politically equipied to win the Algerian War, being the unstable, messsy and democratic Fourth Republic.
Fascist Italy can maintain a more consistent policy and stand firm in the face of military losses, in a way a democratic parlementarian regime (beholden to public opinion) can't.

In short, I think fascist Italy can (and likely would) win the battle for the control of Libya.

 

[ahmedali]

٨

List of countries by population in 1939 - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Algeria in 1939 had 7 million people. So far more populated than Libya which only had 893K.

Algerian nationalists managed in the 50s to get a political victory despite the French military supremacy, but Libyan nationalists would be hard pressed to do the same with a population seven times smaller.

Also, France wasn't politically equipied to win the Algerian War, being the unstable, messsy and democratic Fourth Republic.
Fascist Italy can maintain a more consistent policy and stand firm in the face of military losses, in a way a democratic parlementarian regime (beholden to public opinion) can't.

In short, I think fascist Italy can (and likely would) win the battle for the control of Libya.

Portugal largely succeeded in the colonial war but look what happened next

The Portuguese scenario is often what will happen to Italy

 

[lukedalton]

Unlike Ethiopia, Libya has neighbors who support it (Egypt, Tunisia, Sudan and Algeria).

So they can imitate Algeria (Italian military and political victory for Libya)

Given that the Cold War remains a thing and the Soviets will continue to support and finance decolonization

You cannot be certain that Libya will remain Italian

Algeria and Tunisia will probably still firm under French control in this scenario and Egypt in the British sphere, so help for the Libyan will be very limited and decolonization in general will be set back of decades

 

[skarosianlifeform]

Portugal didn't have demographic advantage and was even slightly outnumbered by Mozambique alone (and massively outnumbered by its combined colonies).

List of countries by past and projected future population - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

In 1970, Angola had 5,6 million
Mozambique had 9,3 million.
Portugal had 9 million.

Italy, however, does have a massive advantage over Libya (43,3 million vs 894 thousands, in 1940).

Plus of course, Italy is directly facing Libya.

 

[ahmedali]

Algeria and Tunisia will probably still firm under French control in this scenario and Egypt in the British sphere, so help for the Libyan will be very limited and decolonization in general will be set back of decades

Unless you make the French equate the Algerians with them, this is simply impossible

Even a very bloody war like OTL, in which France won militarily and Algeria won politically

Tunisia itself became independent with Morocco in 1956 and they supported Algeria and I don't see that changing

Britain took care of Suez, and if the ruling regime in Egypt does not threaten this, they will not interfere

It is true that Italy will support Israel, Britain and France in the Suez crisis

But it will not go beyond the expulsion of Sinai from Egypt and the expulsion of Nasser

 

[lukedalton]

Unless you make the French equate the Algerians with them, this is simply impossible

Even a very bloody war like OTL, in which France won militarily and Algeria won politically

Tunisia itself became independent with Morocco in 1956 and they supported Algeria and I don't see that changing

Britain took care of Suez, and if the ruling regime in Egypt does not threaten this, they will not interfere

It is true that Italy will support Israel, Britain and France in the Suez crisis

But it will not go beyond the expulsion of Sinai from Egypt and the expulsion of Nasser

No fracture of the Stresa Front mean a very different WW2, one where the European powers are not only not spent like OTL but also one where the use of colonial troops is a lot less widespread than OTL and this mean that the core that formed the various local independent movement will be a lot less strong and numerous; at all this you need to add a less prominent role of USA and URSS basically the entire history of decolonization will be set back of decades and will be totally changed...so not even an independence of Algeria and Tunisia are on the table and remember the key difference between France and fascist Italy is the fact that the second will have no problem in expanding the conflict unless the newly independent nations have a very strong protector.

Ethiopia? It will be Italy Vietnam...and will descend in civil war the picosecond the last italian soldier will left the place; Somalia is not worth to keep and Eritrea will probably prefer a dominion like status than risk to deal with Ethiopia but Libya will remain italian, too low population, too many italians and too important due to the oil

 

[ahmedali]

No fracture of the Stresa Front mean a very different WW2, one where the European powers are not only not spent like OTL but also one where the use of colonial troops is a lot less widespread than OTL and this mean that the core that formed the various local independent movement will be a lot less strong and numerous; at all this you need to add a less prominent role of USA and URSS basically the entire history of decolonization will be set back of decades and will be totally changed...so not even an independence of Algeria and Tunisia are on the table and remember the key difference between France and fascist Italy is the fact that the second will have no problem in expanding the conflict unless the newly independent nations have a very strong protector.

Ethiopia? It will be Italy Vietnam...and will descend in civil war the picosecond the last italian soldier will left the place; Somalia is not worth to keep and Eritrea will probably prefer a dominion like status than risk to deal with Ethiopia but Libya will remain italian, too low population, too many italians and too important due to the oil

Without the Italians as allies, the Germans benefit as much as the allies (the Balkan, Mediterranean fronts are not happen and Barbarossa more successful and thus the Soviet collapse)

The Alps are an impenetrable fortress, so neither the Italians nor the Germans can attack each other

Once again, you ignore the huge number of rebellions that took place in Algeria against France, and even if France were stronger, if they did not give the Algerians equality, Algeria would not remain French if the French did not do something like genocide.

The only difference is that we will see a longer Algerian war until the seventies and bloodier (it was the bloodiest OTL).

Tunisia was promised independence like Morocco

And if we see Italy imitating Portugal, the average Italian will not want to leave his homeland to die in the jungles of Africa (Portugal succeeded in the colonial war, but the Portuguese army got tired of it and the estado Novo fell)

Italy will do like Portugal, and Umberto II, the anti-fascist, will gladly expel the fascists

 

[skarosianlifeform]

Italy will likely do like Portugal in East Africa. Not in Libya.

 

[ahmedali]

Italy will likely do like Portugal in East Africa. Not in Libya.

Cabo Verde has a Portuguese minority that was abandoned by Portugal

So I see Italy's abandonment of Libya happening, but instead of the Libyan kingdom we get the Emirate of Cyrenaica and the Republic of Tripolis in the West

 

[marathag]

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Portugal largely succeeded in the colonial war but look what happened next

The Portuguese scenario is often what will happen to Italy

Portugal didn't have Oil Revenue like Italy would, or Military Force

 

[marathag]

Without the Italians as allies, the Germans benefit as much as the allies (the Balkan, Mediterranean fronts are not happen and Barbarossa more successful and thus the Soviet collapse)

Despite the Alpine Wall, Hitler still has to match forces, lest the Moose come thundering out of the Brenner Pass. This TL, no-one know how bad the Italian Military is, and this TL, they are getting decent military aid from the Allies.
So they get plenty of fuel and food, plus actual military gear

 

[ahmedali]

Despite the Alpine Wall, Hitler still has to match forces, lest the Moose come thundering out of the Brenner Pass. This TL, no-one know how bad the Italian Military is, and this TL, they are getting decent military aid from the Allies.
So they get plenty of fuel and food, plus actual military gear

And the Germans are less depleted without fixing what Italy spoils

Italy is still notorious for its inefficiency

In fact, without Italy, the Nazis would be spared from the Balkan and Mediterranean front, and the occupation of Yugoslavia and Greece, which greatly exhausted them.

So it's still an improvement for the Germans

 

[Seandineen]

Frankly, I think that Eritrea, Somalia and Ethiopia are more viable Italians than Libya.

(Libya hated the bowels of the Italians, and the Italians could hardly put down the rebellions, so if anything, Libya would be like Guinea-Bissau for Portugal)

And fascism, I don't see it continuing for long after 1946 (Umberto II hates Mussolini so much and his father's death would mean the army's loyalty to him and he could simply drive the fascists out of the government)

But I agree that fascism will not be seen as Nazism

A larger number of surviving Jews, The Duce didn't believe in Anti Semitism as such. Perhaps a refuge for the Piedre Noirs, in Algeria.