What does an Allied Italy look like before, during, and after World War 2?

[ahmedali]

Well, Germans will want (and need) to invade Italian Albania, to stop the Regia Aeronautica and the RAF from attempting to bomb Ploiesti oil fields from there (it's less than 1000 kilometers away). They can't afford not to, because the Ploiesti oil fields are their primary oil production site (that is not controlled by Soviet Union), and the Allies know this and will indeed prepare operations against Ploiesti (and happily violate Yugoslavian neutrality if needed).

So Germans have to conquer Albania, which means they need to go through Yugoslavia, and either make it an Axis member or occupy it as well.

In turn, tha means the Allies will promote the coup against Regent Paul, because they don't want a pro-German Yugoslavia.

So, for Yugoslavia, the situation will be similar to OTL.
The country that will likely escape invasion, on the other hand, is Greece (because Italians will be too busy fighting Germany to think about invading the Kingdom of Greece, while Germans, once they're established in Yugoslavia and Albania, already have sufficient bases to carry a bombing campaign against the Adriatic coast of Italy, from Venice to Brindisi. Conquering Greece wouldn't help them further. So, the Greeks will likely sit the war out, and hope that nobody notices them.

This is just a hand wave

Allied Italy eliminates the Yugoslav coup simply because the Serbs do not feel paranoid about Italy threatening them and because the British do not feel the need to do so.

Everyone forgets that Prince Paul was Anglophone and his decision to remain neutral mainly because of fear of Italy, and in the scenario of ally Italy, the guardianship will not do this, so he becomes like the Turks and sells to both sides and declares war in 1944

Albania does nothing for the Germans, and Romania on the other side

So Italy, its ally, avoids the coup of Yugoslavia and the invasion of Greece, and thus the Balkan front, and this is an improvement for the Germans, regardless of anything.

 

[skarosianlifeform]

This is just a hand wave

Allied Italy eliminates the Yugoslav coup simply because the Serbs do not feel paranoid about Italy threatening them and because the British do not feel the need to do so.

Everyone forgets that Prince Paul was Anglophone and his decision to remain neutral mainly because of fear of Italy, and in the scenario of ally Italy, the guardianship will not do this, so he becomes like the Turks and sells to both sides and declares war in 1944

Albania does nothing for the Germans, and Romania on the other side

So Italy, its ally, avoids the coup of Yugoslavia and the invasion of Greece, and thus the Balkan front, and this is an improvement for the Germans, regardless of anything.

But again, whether the coup happens or not, and whether Prince Paul is Anglophile or not, doesn't change the fundamental equation.

Germans need to invade Albania (because of the Ploiesti thing), and can't afford not to.
And the way from Germany to Albania inevitably goes through Yugoslavia.

Actually, there IS a way to change this equation : if Italy didn't invade Albania in April 1939.
Then, yes, Germany can afford to leave the Balkans alone.

But if Mussolini is in power, he will want to expand his realm against easy targets (such as the weak and very close Albania) whenever he can, regardless of the side he picks in WWII.

 

[ahmedali]

But again, whether the coup happens or not, and whether Prince Paul is Anglophile or not, doesn't change the fundamental equation.

Germans need to invade Albania (because of the Ploiesti thing), and can't afford not to.
And the way from Germany to Albania inevitably goes through Yugoslavia.

Actually, there IS a way to change this equation : if Italy didn't invade Albania in April 1939.
Then, yes, Germany can afford to leave the Balkans alone.

But if Mussolini is in power, he will want to expand his realm against easy targets (such as the weak and very close Albania) whenever he can, regardless of the side he picks in WWII.

Even if Albania is included, Plosetti is in Romania and not in Yugoslavia, it doesn't make a difference to the Germans

The annexation of Albania is very easy to avoid, just make Zog obey

 

[CASSICTOR2]

Tunisia was able to win politically over France and expel them from Bizerte, and they are allies of the West

They win political battle with France that's correct but you have to realize that fascist Italy is a different beast.

Italy is far more valuable allies than Tunisia with the Libyan oil trade and a key player of detaining communism into the world.

Despite that, Algeria was just like Egypt, where they supported Arab nationalists, and a brother like Libya would definitely support him

But they have the same problem with Egypt, Italy can easily just crush any insurgency in Libya.

Remember I said that Italian Libya can easily turn Northern Ireland conflict, which I agree that if you tell me that but a full war that knockout Italy out of Libya is extremely unlikely

 

[ahmedali]

They win political battle with France that's correct but you have to realize that fascist Italy is a different beast.

Italy is far more valuable allies than Tunisia with the Libyan oil trade and a key player of detaining communism into the world.

But they have the same problem with Egypt, Italy can easily just crush any insurgency in Libya.

Remember I said that Italian Libya can easily turn Northern Ireland conflict, which I agree that if you tell me that but a full war that knockout Italy out of Libya is extremely unlikely

Fascist Italy will most likely follow the Portugal scenario

(The Italians will be tired of throwing their children in the jungles and mountains of Ethiopia, death in the scorching Libyan desert, and brutal death at the hands of the Somali tribes, add that the king wants an excuse to expel the fascists)

Morality plays a role in the era of apartheid South Africa is an ally of the West, but everyone turned against it

Vietnam and Cuba are communists, but everyone sympathized with them

 

[CASSICTOR2]

Fascist Italy will most likely follow the Portugal scenario

(The Italians will be tired of throwing their children in the jungles and mountains of Ethiopia, death in the scorching Libyan desert, and brutal death at the hands of the Somali tribes, add that the king wants an excuse to expel the fascists)

A difference between Libya and places like Ethiopia is those places have many indigenous populated that have the power to overthrow Italian colonists out of their country.

Libya doesn't have that luxury, Italians were already 13% of the population during WW2 and when oil is discovered in Libya that will escalate it. The Italian settlers becoming a majority of Libyan population is very easy to happened in TTL

Morality plays a role in the era of apartheid South Africa is an ally of the West, but everyone turned against it

Apartheid South Africa have a minority white population while on contrast Libya will have a majority white population particularly Italian based.

Also fascism will have a lot more "credibility" with Italy. So those fascist practices will likely still continue to Italy and maybe even Apartheid SA

Vietnam and Cuba are communists, but everyone sympathized with them

Libya is going to be Italian province and yes while people may be sympathetic to Indigenous libyan but they are not majority but the minority.

 

[ToasterOven456]

Fascist Italy will most likely follow the Portugal scenario

(The Italians will be tired of throwing their children in the jungles and mountains of Ethiopia, death in the scorching Libyan desert, and brutal death at the hands of the Somali tribes, add that the king wants an excuse to expel the fascists)

Morality plays a role in the era of apartheid South Africa is an ally of the West, but everyone turned against it

Vietnam and Cuba are communists, but everyone sympathized with them

In particular, those young boys fighting in the colonies will embrace communism, seeing fascism as the root of all evil, as the colonial troops of Portugal. A carnation revolution could be coupled with an Italian revolution/civil war

 

[CASSICTOR2]

In particular, those young boys fighting in the colonies will embrace communism, seeing fascism as the root of all evil, as the colonial troops of Portugal. A carnation revolution could be coupled with an Italian revolution/civil war

Italy won't have revolution nor even civil war.
Italy a far more stable to have that to happen yeah there might be some pushback but a full scale revolution or civil war? No just no.

Italy when they finally ended the fascist rule will likely end in the 90s when no Soviet Union existed

 

[ahmedali]

A difference between Libya and places like Ethiopia is those places have many indigenous populated that have the power to overthrow Italian colonists out of their country.

Libya doesn't have that luxury, Italians were already 13% of the population during WW2 and when oil is discovered in Libya that will escalate it. The Italian settlers becoming a majority of Libyan population is very easy to happened in TTL

Apartheid South Africa have a minority white population while on contrast Libya will have a majority white population particularly Italian based.

Also fascism will have a lot more "credibility" with Italy. So those fascist practices will likely still continue to Italy and maybe even Apartheid SA

Libya is going to be Italian province and yes while people may be sympathetic to Indigenous libyan but they are not majority but the minority.

Cape Verde and Sao Tome have white Portuguese, with a number of not too small, and Portugal has abandoned them

You cannot be sure that Libya will not be abandoned

Apartheid is simply a situation that simply cannot be sustained and it is a miracle that it has been peacefully ended

And fascism after Mussolini's death in 1960 will not survive (it relied on the monarchy to stay and the army loyal to the king and not to the Duce)

Umberto II will not waste a single minute expelling the fascists from the government

 

[marathag]

aly won't have revolution nor even civil war.
Italy a far more stable to have that to happen yeah there might be some pushback but a full scale revolution or civil war? No just no.

Agree. A Fascist Italy would exit like Spain, peacefully.

 

[ahmedali]

A difference between Libya and places like Ethiopia is those places have many indigenous populated that have the power to overthrow Italian colonists out of their country.

Libya doesn't have that luxury, Italians were already 13% of the population during WW2 and when oil is discovered in Libya that will escalate it. The Italian settlers becoming a majority of Libyan population is very easy to happened in TTL

Apartheid South Africa have a minority white population while on contrast Libya will have a majority white population particularly Italian based.

Also fascism will have a lot more "credibility" with Italy. So those fascist practices will likely still continue to Italy and maybe even Apartheid SA

Libya is going to be Italian province and yes while people may be sympathetic to Indigenous libyan but they are not majority but the minority.

You are exaggerating the prospects of fascism

Estado Novo, a fascist, fell in 1974, and Italy, a democracy, suffered greatly from political instability throughout the Cold War.

Fascism will not survive after Mussolini's death, which will happen in 1963 or 1961

 

[ahmedali]

Agree. A Fascist Italy would exit like Spain, peacefully.

No

the Portuguese scenario is most likely

 

[lukedalton]

Tunisia was able to win politically over France and expel them from Bizerte, and they are allies of the West

Despite that, Algeria was just like Egypt, where they supported Arab nationalists, and a brother like Libya would definitely support him

They won politically and frankly after the retreat from Algeria was decided, Bizerte was not that important...Tunisia help the the Libyans and anybody that's in charge in Tunisi and Algeri will better start to like the taste of whatever shoes he need to kiss because Fascist Italy qualm to bombard them are less then zero. And all this taking only in consideration a scenario similar of OTL, as said many times, Italy on the allied side change a lot and decolonization will probably slowed down of decades

Estado Novo, a fascist, fell in 1974, and Italy, a democracy, suffered greatly from political instability throughout the Cold War.

The only real period of dangerous instability was during the years of lead, the rest...well i said that many times and i will say it again, the duration of the single government was irrilevant as they were not that important and basically existed only for the day to day operation...sure that changed with time but we least wait for the 90's, the real power was the government coalition and that were much more stable, any new government was simply a change of the internal power dynamic of them. It was a system designed to avoid a new strongman take power and worked perfectly for decades

 

[CASSICTOR2]

Cape Verde and Sao Tome have white Portuguese, with a number of not too small, and Portugal has abandoned them

You cannot be sure that Libya will not be abandoned

The difference is Libya will have a lot of Italians living there and are very close to Italy Homeland.

Portugal is not a good example for Italy on a topic on Libya because those countries have different population and close to the home country.

Apartheid is simply a situation that simply cannot be sustained and it is a miracle that it has been peacefully ended

Yes I do agree that Apartheid SA is not sustainab, it just a thought not a actual result.

And fascism after Mussolini's death in 1960 will not survive (it relied on the monarchy to stay and the army loyal to the king and not to the Duce)

Umberto II will not waste a single minute expelling the fascists from the government

The fascist will be a lot more popular because they won the war in WW2 as well as the monarchy also in bed with the fascist party to maintain popularity to the people in Italy.

Remember this is the Cold war where US was supported Military Junta in South America, Asia and África. Why do you think the US wouldn't at least support the fascist Italians in Libya?

No
the Portuguese scenario is most likely

Okay Why? Portugal the small country compared to Italy and I even list why Portugal is not a really good example to Fasicist Italy.

Spain is more good example to Fasicist Italy.

 

[CASSICTOR2]

I said that Italy fascist government will likely fall during the too early to mid-90s where the threats of Communism isn't really a issue because of Russia because declining power.

Even so I do think fascist elements or policies that affect Italy to their core similar to SA with Aftermath of Apartheid

 

[marathag]

You are exaggerating the prospects of fascism

Estado Novo, a fascist, fell in 1974, and Italy, a democracy, suffered greatly from political instability throughout the Cold War.

Fascism will not survive after Mussolini's death, which will happen in 1963 or 1961

OTL Italy, after being the first Axis power to be defeated and occupied by both Axis and Allies, then to have Communist funded groups causing trouble, isn't where Italy would be in this ATL

They have retained their Colonial Empire.
They would be a founding member of the UN, and a seat on the Security Council.

Italy would have the same problem as the USA, an older industrial base not destroyed during the War, but very profitable thru the '50s, so you Don't have the OTL worker unrest.

 

[CASSICTOR2]

Italy would have the same problem as the USA, an older industrial base not destroyed during the War, but very profitable thru the '50s, so you Don't have the OTL worker unrest.

I think Great Britain is a more good example for a fascist Italy, Marathag.

Italy might be attacked by Germany WWII and might be even invade the Northern Italy but not in the same casualties and destruction of the Italian Homeland IOTL

 

[marathag]

think Great Britain is a more good example for a fascist Italy, Marathag.

While the FIAT conglomerate had its issues, Italy was farther ahead on verically integrated large mass production than the UK was.

 

[CASSICTOR2]

While the FIAT conglomerate had its issues, Italy was farther ahead on verically integrated large mass production than the UK was.

So a mix between a US and UK industry in Postwar Europe specifically with Libyan oil trade then right?

 

[ahmedali]

The difference is Libya will have a lot of Italians living there and are very close to Italy Homeland.

Portugal is not a good example for Italy on a topic on Libya because those countries have different population and close to the home country.

Yes I do agree that Apartheid SA is not sustainab, it just a thought not a actual result.

The fascist will be a lot more popular because they won the war in WW2 as well as the monarchy also in bed with the fascist party to maintain popularity to the people in Italy.

Remember this is the Cold war where US was supported Military Junta in South America, Asia and África. Why do you think the US wouldn't at least support the fascist Italians in Libya?

Okay Why? Portugal the small country compared to Italy and I even list why Portugal is not a really good example to Fasicist Italy.

Spain is more good example to Fasicist Italy.

Vittorio Emmanuel III is not immortal

So, as soon as Umberto II comes, the fascists will be expelled

Remember that to the Portuguese, Antonio Salazar is the greatest thing that ever happened to the Portuguese

But his regime did not survive his death
The same is true of Mussolini

Portugal is similar to Spain and the nationalists took their system from Portugal and Italy and the greatest influence from Portugal

So stop exaggerating the prospects of the fascists