What does a United Baltic Duchy look like?

ingemann

Banned
The Russians would be undesirable in any case, and would certainly feel undesirable. Their status in the Baltics was tied to Russian rule, which wasn't always received well.

The Balts would see it that way, the Baltic Germans was quite friendly to the Russian population, so if they dominate the Russians will be left in peace, through most they will likely give up their language and adopt German (they will likely still identify as Russians as they stay Orthodox) outside the rural Russian population in East Estonia.
 
Sorry if this is a bit late, but most here seem to view a potential Baltic duchy with to put it mildly, rose tinted glasses. The idea of puting an overhelming majority of natives (Estonians and Latvians were nearly 80% in 1897, and their proportion of the population had most likely grown) under the rule of a small minority, which had exploited the native people for centurities, holding them as serfs for century, does not strike me as a model of stability. Yes, it's true that Latvians and Estonians have generally little in common, however their mutual hatred of the Germans would be really helpful in them putting their differences aside. Not to mention that they don't really have any disputes between each other, so it would be a bit difficult to create conflicts between them. The OTL events which brought down the Soviet Union should be instructive.

As for the Russians, the Latvians and Estonians considered them a lesser evil and even helpful against the Baltic Germans. After all, it was during the Russian Empire that they started the process of national awakening. As contemporary observers noted, the fact that the Balts greeted the Germans as liberators in 1941, was a sign of how terrible the year under Soviet rule was. But this will not be in the case here and if the Soviet Union exists, it is fairly likely that most of the population would be at the very least sympathetic to Communism in fairly short order.

So while Germany could certainly hold the Baltics by force of arms, it's difficult to see them developing into anything but a repressive dictatorship.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Apologies for responding to such an old thread; however, it seems pointless to make a new thread for this, no?

Anyway, here goes:

Standard fodder for CP victory scenarios is the United Baltic Duchy, consisting of Courland, Livland and Estland (modern Latvia and Estonia almost exactly). The ruling population is the Baltic Germans, and the Kaiser rules the three Duchies in personal union. Sometimes, it is posited that they enter the German empire as Reichslander at some point in the future; sometimes it is posited that the area is swamped by German settlers/fully assimilated into Germany.

In reality, would would a surviving UBR look like? What are the approximate percentages that are German, Latvian, Estonian, Jewish, and Russian, respectively? Would Lutheranism and fear of Russia bring the peoples of the Duchies together, or ethnic nationalism and Wilhelmine repression tear them apart? How much economic punch does the UBR, once developed, have within Mitteleuropa? What is the relationship between Berlin and Riga like some years down the road?

Frankly, a lot will depend on both how many of the Baltic locals flee during WWI as well as on how many of these fleeing locals are allowed by the Germans to return home after the end of WWI.

Meanwhile, in regards to demographics, if Courland, Livonia, and Estonia are all emptied of most of their inhabitants as a result of evacuations during WWI (something that was only true of Courland in our TL), you could probably make all three of these provinces German-majority if Germany refuses to allow the evacuated Baltic locals to return home after the end of this TL's WWI. Basically, while Germany's population was generally moving west rather than east during this time (since the west is where most of Germany's industry was), it might be possible to get, say, 1 million ethnic Germans to settle in the United Baltic Duchy in the post-WWI years and decades in this TL. Indeed, this 1 million ethnic Germans can partially come from Russia but also to some extent come from Germany (with some German ultra-nationalists being willing to settle in the United Baltic Duchy due to their belief that this is their patriotic duty for the fatherland); plus, if Germany builds up the industry in various cities in the United Baltic Duchy, some--if not many--German workers can (eventually) move to these Baltic cities.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Sorry if this is a bit late, but most here seem to view a potential Baltic duchy with to put it mildly, rose tinted glasses. The idea of puting an overhelming majority of natives (Estonians and Latvians were nearly 80% in 1897, and their proportion of the population had most likely grown) under the rule of a small minority, which had exploited the native people for centurities, holding them as serfs for century, does not strike me as a model of stability. Yes, it's true that Latvians and Estonians have generally little in common, however their mutual hatred of the Germans would be really helpful in them putting their differences aside. Not to mention that they don't really have any disputes between each other, so it would be a bit difficult to create conflicts between them. The OTL events which brought down the Soviet Union should be instructive.

As for the Russians, the Latvians and Estonians considered them a lesser evil and even helpful against the Baltic Germans. After all, it was during the Russian Empire that they started the process of national awakening. As contemporary observers noted, the fact that the Balts greeted the Germans as liberators in 1941, was a sign of how terrible the year under Soviet rule was. But this will not be in the case here and if the Soviet Union exists, it is fairly likely that most of the population would be at the very least sympathetic to Communism in fairly short order.

So while Germany could certainly hold the Baltics by force of arms, it's difficult to see them developing into anything but a repressive dictatorship.
I completely agree with you that such a situation isn't going to be sustainable over the long-run unless Germany manages to significantly change the demographics of the United Baltic Duchy (for instance, by successfully getting a lot of ethnic Germans to settle there).
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Post War:

50-65 Lat/Estonian (Some will prefer to live in Russia or will not be allowed to return.) Russian 2-5. German 9. (There were plans for German settlers, but I have looked at demographics a lot. Where do you find them?) Jewish 3-30. (Huge range. Low end assumes just losses in war. High end assume harsh environment in Russia for Jews combined with German unwillingness to take refugee flows.) Swede 1.
In regards to German settlers, they can partially come from Russia (which had a lot of ethnic Germans back then) and partially from Germany (specifically from German ultra-nationalists who are willing to do their perceived patriotic duty by settling in the East). Indeed, please keep in mind that, in our TL, many ethnic Slavs (primarily ethnic Russians) settled in Estonia and Latvia after the end of World War II in spite of the fact that the Soviet Union's WWII demographic losses were much greater than Germany's WWI demographic losses.
 
Apologies for responding to such an old thread; however, it seems pointless to make a new thread for this, no?
Actually, the general board culture is towards making a new thread on the same subject if the one you are going to post on is more than a few months old. So we don't consider it as pointless.

Still, the UBR is quite an interesting concept of a state. I believe the Germans planned to merge it into the Empire in the long term.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Actually, the general board culture is towards making a new thread on the same subject if the one you are going to post on is more than a few months old. So we don't consider it as pointless.

OK; understood.

Still, the UBR is quite an interesting concept of a state. I believe the Germans planned to merge it into the Empire in the long term.

Frankly, it would have certainly been interesting to see what this would have resulted in; after all, without significant demographic changes to the United Baltic Duchy, an annexation of it to Germany proper would probably create another Posen (as in, headache for Germany).
 
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