as part of my ASB ATL, ive decided that Cuba becomes independent (similar to OTL) as a result of a war between Spain and the US which lasts more than a few months; the US never completely conquers Cuba but still takes Puerto Rico and the Philippines (among other territories, otherwise the same as IOTL), and an ally in the war, *Mexico, doesnt get any other territory either. however, as a condition of ending the war, Cuba still becomes independent from Spain, and is now known as the Commonwealth of Cuba
Cuba comes under Spanish influence again in the next few decades and joins Spain in another war against the US from 1941 to 1945, and is hit by a chemical strike at the end of the war which ultimately leads to an american victory. its occupied and sorta becomes ITTL's post-WW2 Japan, demilitarized except for self-defense forces (and may also have an impact on American culture sorta like how Japan did by way of manga, anime, and video games)
anyway, im wondering what everyone thinks would happen to Cuba in terms of politics and international relations ITTL. communism does exist ITTL, but isnt as widespread, so it may well have not even reached Cuba. the occupation of Cuba probably lasts about as long as the occupation of Japan IOTL, and the OTL Cuban Revolution occurred from 1953 to 1959
basically, im unsure which direction Cuba should swing in ITTL. id like to explore possibilities other than communism and what could potentially arise. Batista doesnt necessarily exist ITTL, or isnt necessarily appointed as a dictator; Cuba may not even be a dictatorship here
thoughts? ideas? suggestions?