Discussion thread on semantics.
The more cinematic and sensationalist Axis victory scenarios tend to end up with a perfect mirror of OTL, i.e. the Allied powers carved up and occupied by the Axis. To take one classic example, Philip K. Dick's The Man in the High Castle, the Japanese end up with the entire Pacific states of the USA.
Now after you've taken some alka-seltzer I think most people would agree that that's Not Very Likely, to say the least. On the other hand, there is a distressing tendency on here to assume that victory for the Axis in any way was simply impossible based on quoting industrial production statistics. Fine except people and history do not work that way. The British populace, and even the leadership, thought they were in real danger of invasion in 1940, and while the rational AH.commer with the benefit of hindsight would not react to hints of the Germans preparing their invasion flotilla by e.g. panic-recalling forces from North Africa and thus changing the course of the war there, the cabinet might well do. That's just an example.
Rant over - anyway, bearing that in mind, what would a realistic 'victory' for Japan look like in the Pacific? The POD is December 7th 1941: Pearl Harbour and the invasion of Malaya must happen, but you can posit them sinking more ships or whatever in the attack.
Don't tell me that it's impossible for the Japanese not to lose. The odds are well stacked against them, but that's not the same thing. My question is, what could Japan realistically come out of the war with on top of what they started it with?