What countries could out produce the US if given an early enough POD in their history.

[unprincipled peter]

well, the rules also state that you can POD whenever you want. a Spanish Mexico POD early enough, automatically has to break the rules of US has to exist pretty much as is, because, for starters, the US isn't going to be able to take Texas/AZ/Colorado/California/etc. Plus, any early POD means factors will alter the way the US develops (such as siphoning off immigrants, or simply denying the US a market). for example, if Russia modernizes early, WW1 is over in a year, and the US doesn't get to become the worlds financier. IF Canada or New Spain modernize early enough, they're going to be strong powers and the US isn't going to automatically be the dominant power in the Americas.

John7755: what do you mean New Spain has to somehow acquire LA? they did acquire it OTL. (edit- plus, they claimed all of it, and most of the south, and the entire west coast, including Alaska, before they acquired LA, so if they're stronger earlier, they could make good their claims).

As for how to populate and control it, remember that the part that makes any of the great production is to revamp things "like less instability/more plausible expansion/better infrastructure/ educated and greater population ". this automatically enables New Spain to populate and control, whether remaining part of the Spanish Empire or not. And really, if you dream up a way to keep the Spanish Empire intact with such things, it can easily swamp the US of OTL.

 

[avernite]

I suppose a Germany triumphant in WW1 and again in a second war to utterly crush France and Russia could suffice. Presumably absorbing much of the French coal/iron (nevermind the native German such), control of North Sea oil/gas, vast lands in Poland/Russia (even if nominally independent), and of course a massive literate population (especially if it also absorbs Austrian Cisleithania).

And all that without serious rivals if France/Russia are crushed (Britain could still be a rival, but not of the equal-and-scary kind).

 

[Admiral Beez]

Can we include the British Empire? It wasn't until about 1910 that the USA surpassed the Empire in GDP.

 

[Deleted member 67076]

As far as China goes, I don't think you need such an early PoD. The Hundred Days Reform launched by the Guangxu Emperor in 1898 set China on the right path, but was cut short by the coup d'état by Cixi and General Yuan Shikai. If that coup had failed, then we wouldn't have had the Chinese Revolution and the Warlord Era. Mao's batshit insane policies like the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution would have been butterflied away completely. China could have a population of 1.7 billion and a way higher GDP IMHO.

Wouldn't earlier industrialization lead to the start of earlier urbanization and thus, an earlier kickoff to the demographic transition meaning Chinas population should be a good deal smaller, not larger?

 

[Sift Green]

I would say that the easiest places you could go to give the Untied States true equals would be China and/or Russia.

In a sense China was already there, only to be messed up by foolish policies that lead to civil war and more foolish policies. So really any point of departure that keeps China from becoming a complete mess for decades on end will probably result in a China that is on equal footing with the U.S.A.

Russia is history's greatest tragedy because it has always had everything going right for it, only to have a small group of people mess everything up; be they a reactionary Czar and their advisors or Communist Dictator and their advisers.
So a point of departure that gives Russia less error prone leadership would be a good start, perhaps having a reform minded Czar like Alexander II live long enough to make sure his successor isn't a reactionary that will undo the bulk of his positive reforms.
The second point of departure that would greatly help Russia would probably be a different alliance system developing in Europe, such as Russia being allied with Prussia/Germany instead of France. Such an arrangement would make it more difficult for Russia's enemies to strike at the Russian heartland in the event of a war, resulting in less fighting and destruction in the productive regions of the Ukraine.
It would seem to me that that would be a good starting point for making Russia a true equal with the U.S.A.

 

[Onkel Willie]

I would say that the easiest places you could go to give the Untied States true equals would be China and/or Russia.

In a sense China was already there, only to be messed up by foolish policies that lead to civil war and more foolish policies. So really any point of departure that keeps China from becoming a complete mess for decades on end will probably result in a China that is on equal footing with the U.S.A.

Russia is history's greatest tragedy because it has always had everything going right for it, only to have a small group of people mess everything up; be they a reactionary Czar and their advisors or Communist Dictator and their advisers.
So a point of departure that gives Russia less error prone leadership would be a good start, perhaps having a reform minded Czar like Alexander II live long enough to make sure his successor isn't a reactionary that will undo the bulk of his positive reforms.
The second point of departure that would greatly help Russia would probably be a different alliance system developing in Europe, such as Russia being allied with Prussia/Germany instead of France. Such an arrangement would make it more difficult for Russia's enemies to strike at the Russian heartland in the event of a war, resulting in less fighting and destruction in the productive regions of the Ukraine.
It would seem to me that that would be a good starting point for making Russia a true equal with the U.S.A.

As far as Russia being allied to Prussia/Germany goes, I once wrote a TL on that subject .https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/the-twin-eagles-and-the-lion.119376/

 

[My Daichingtala]

China has the resources but it's literacy rate was terrible, if I'm not mistaken it was in the below 5% in the 1800s range.

China's literacy rate was extremely high considering its size, actually, although we can't ascertain any definitive percentages. But 5% is lower than the lowest serious estimates for the High Qing literacy rate.

David Johnson and Andrew James Nathan estimate that in the early 20th century, 15% to 45% of the male population was functionally literate (and a smaller, but still substantial, number of women as well; taken from Popular Culture in Late Imperial China). Considering how China's institutions or economy barely improved in the 19th century - in fact, the economy deteriorated in many areas - the literacy rate could not have been particularly lower during the 18th century.

Evelin Rawsky in Education and Popular Literacy in Ch'ing China estimates that during the 1880s the Chinese literacy rate overall was 16-27%, 30-45% for men and 2-10% for women. In some developed areas, however, the female literacy rate could be as high as 25%. Again, the literacy rate could not have been much lower during the 18th century; if anything it was higher with the smaller population. For urban populations, Rawsy estimates, the functional literacy rate was as high as 80-90% in the late 19th century.

To give you an impression of how high this was, in India in 1901 the literacy rate was 5.2%. While France had an overall literacy rate of over 40% during the Revolution and Britain's was even higher, other parts of Europe lagged far behind China like the Russian Empire in 1797 with 6.9% or East Prussia in 1750 with 10% for male peasants. The Chinese literacy rate was most likely comparable with Europe as a whole.

 

[BootOnFace]

China is an easy one to do and the POD can be as recent as the 1890s. A pet idea of mine is a successful Taiping Rebellion where Hong Xiuquan is sidelined and made into a figurehead early on and the rebellion becomes a Han nationalist revolution with Christian overtones. The very radical, almost communist, roots of the rebellion could be moderated into a modernization campaign that concerns itself largely with land reform, a new legal code, and public (Christian) education.

This complete upturning of the status quo gives the Kings carte blanche to change foreign relations. They could do things like revoke extraterratoriality and promote foreign investment at the same time. It also allows the reorganization of the civil structure to account for modern population sizes and distribution. Hell, Meiji could end up following in the footsteps of Xiuquan if the Four Kings are smart enough.

 

[John7755 يوحنا]

China's literacy rate was extremely high considering its size, actually, although we can't ascertain any definitive percentages. But 5% is lower than the lowest serious estimates for the High Qing literacy rate.

David Johnson and Andrew James Nathan estimate that in the early 20th century, 15% to 45% of the male population was functionally literate (and a smaller, but still substantial, number of women as well; taken from Popular Culture in Late Imperial China). Considering how China's institutions or economy barely improved in the 19th century - in fact, the economy deteriorated in many areas - the literacy rate could not have been particularly lower during the 18th century.

Evelin Rawsky in Education and Popular Literacy in Ch'ing China estimates that during the 1880s the Chinese literacy rate overall was 16-27%, 30-45% for men and 2-10% for women. In some developed areas, however, the female literacy rate could be as high as 25%. Again, the literacy rate could not have been much lower during the 18th century; if anything it was higher with the smaller population. For urban populations, Rawsy estimates, the functional literacy rate was as high as 80-90% in the late 19th century.

To give you an impression of how high this was, in India in 1901 the literacy rate was 5.2%. While France had an overall literacy rate of over 40% during the Revolution and Britain's was even higher, other parts of Europe lagged far behind China like the Russian Empire in 1797 with 6.9% or East Prussia in 1750 with 10% for male peasants. The Chinese literacy rate was most likely comparable with Europe as a whole.

Well of course I am not qualified to rule on this matter, but that seems quite odd, I must say.

 

[BootOnFace]

Another one is India but you'd have to put the POD back in the 1600s or 1500s. A good one is the death of Sher Shah, the usurper of the Mughal Empire. He ruled for five years and in that five years he completely reformed the administration of the empire and was an amazing force for improving the economy and military. His son continued the tradition of reform, centralizing administration and ensuring loyalty of local nobility.


Sadly, they both died after only a few years of rule each and the Mughal pretender reclaimed the throne. The administration they set up sustained the Mughal empire for its entire lifespan, and if they both had had long reigns I would not be surprised if they unified India and created an empire not unlike the Ottoman Empire, but not directly next to huge modern powers like Austria or Russia. It's been said in this thread that India is not easily defended, but I'd argue it's as easy as China to defend, but its potential invader is Iran, not Japan. And Iran isn't intimidating to a unified India.

I believe a Suri dynasty India could modernize in the 1800s before the European powers destroy it.

 

[joho6411]

I don't know if this totally fits the criteria but how about... Australia?

Joho .

 

[Arkenfolm]

I don't know if this totally fits the criteria but how about... Australia?

Can Australia even produce enough water to supply the hundreds of million people to outproduce the US while still having enough to use it for irrigation and mining, which is needed to produce the food to feed those people as well as supply their needs. I've seen Australia's maximum carrying capacity estimated at 100 million people, at absolute most.

 

[leave61]

Exactly as it says on the tin. If a country is given a fortune enough change in it's history, like less instability/more plausible expansion/better infrastructure/ educated and greater population, could it surpass America.

Potential candidates could include Brazilian Empire, Gran Colombia, united provinces if la Plata/ greater Argentina, larger and less racist South Africa, Meiji China, a wealthier India ,industrialized Russian empire, etc. Not that all these could exist at the same time, of course.

Now, something that must be noted are the factors that made the US a superpower.

1. A large, educated population.
2. Not having any (long lasting) political instability.
3. Great resources in coal, arable land, oil, precious metals,etc.
4. Being already a great power in it's region without any real competition to distract it's focus from the rest of the world.

I am not sure if size, really matters so much as what resources their are, as a lot of the major industrial areas in the US are or were around the Midwest or great lakes, with the arable land being in the Midwest as well.

The rules are that the US must exist with the same states except Alaska and Hawaii.

I want to ask, do you play Victoria 2?

 

[Abdominalz]

Russia: The February Revolution succeeds and both the Kornilov Affair and the Bolshevik Revolution fail. If Kerenay surrenders to Germany (with terms similar to Brest-Litovsk) but the Western allies still win the war, Russia will most likely become a successful Democracy as long as the Lenins and Kornilovs can be defeated. Russia becomes a federal and constitutional republic and lives happily ever after becoming a second America.

 

[NiGHTS]

I want to ask, do you play Victoria 2?

Never heard of it, but I have been read over this website a LOT. Although, I think have only discovered it a few months ago, but it feels like forever now.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I want to ask, do you play Victoria 2?

I had Victoria 1 and it was IMO unplayable.

The reviews had it right, calling it more work than play. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria:_An_Empire_Under_the_Sun

How's the later version? This review from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_II sums up my experience with the prior version:

It is an orgy of detail for detail's sake, yet the information I really want never seems to be at hand. The decisions I make seem mostly inconsequential, changing the game only by a slow process of accretion. Modeling has overtaken game design.

I bought the first version because I wanted a pc game that focused on the British Empire. Considering the British Empire was arguably the largest and one of the most influential empires in man's history, there are nearly zero games for it.

 

[leave61]

I had Victoria 1 and it was IMO unplayable.

The reviews had it right, calling it more work than play. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria:_An_Empire_Under_the_Sun

How's the later version? This review from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_II sums up my experience with the prior version:

It is an orgy of detail for detail's sake, yet the information I really want never seems to be at hand. The decisions I make seem mostly inconsequential, changing the game only by a slow process of accretion. Modeling has overtaken game design.

I bought the first version because I wanted a pc game that focused on the British Empire. Considering the British Empire was arguably the largest and one of the most influential empires in man's history, there are nearly zero games for it.

Victoria 2 has improved upon Victoria 1 quite a lot. Better economy and more countries to play as. I've played more than 1000 hours in the past few months. It's great, I really recommend the game.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Victoria 2 has improved upon Victoria 1 quite a lot. Better economy and more countries to play as. I've played more than 1000 hours in the past few months. It's great, I really recommend the game.

Thanks. Is is available for Macbook?

 

[EMT]

Some general European ideas that may or not impact the Eastern Seaboard based on butterflies *ahem*, but let's a-go.

• Phillip II's marriage to Mary I goes swimmingly, and he sires an heir that is set to inherit the majority of Western Europe, and has a titular claim to the Kingdom of France
• Phillip II takes a far more realpolitik approach to the Protestant issue, decreasing active persecution of Protestants in order to amass both cash and troops for his end goal
• Phillip II invades France with the stated goal of claiming the French throne for his to-be-born child with an army of Spanish, Germans, and Englishmen
• After much blood, suffering, misery, and an almost-bankruptcy, Paris is captured within a year and Phillip II's newly born son is declared King of France. The Valois flee to Istanbul, but France remains in a state of conflict on and off for the next thirty years
• Phillip and Mary call for a reorganization of their realm, to take effect gradually until the ascension of their son to all of their crowns. The duo after much debate decide to kick the Protestant can down the road in favor of stabilizing their realm, as France remains volatile and the Netherlands and Portugal have yet to calm.

A series of negotiations take place on religion, rights, trade, colonization, etc over the course of the next hundred years. The end result is:

• That Portugal and Spain are to maintain a monopoly on the settlement of the New World in exchange for a series of concessions such as the right to trade freely with Iberian colonies, but the united navy must be payed for by all of the crowns.
• Portugal and Spain are united under Spain in perpetuity, with several concessions on local courts, rights, etc.
• The inheritance law of the crowns are standardized; the crowns are united yet distinct entities henceforth
• Tariffs and trade barriers are lowered across the entirety of the crowns, to the glee of Dutch and English merchants
• A united parliament is formed and a permanent court established in France(but not in Paris), that can supersede the law of any single crown, but is unable to pass laws that conflict with the majority of the crowns. The King however, has absolute power over the united parliament
• The crowns are established as Spain, France, England, Naples, and the Netherlands. Spain itself has its own courts for Portugal, Castille, Navarre, and Aragon.
• The right of settlement in the New World is eventually granted to all of the crowns in already established(and Spanish) colonies such as Mexico and Peru. Settlement on the American Seaboard remains restricted to Spanish and Portuguese, for example, but petitions by interests from other crowns accelerates the establishment of military outposts and colonies. By 1650, the entirety of the Eastern Seaboard is de facto controlled by the UKs, albeit sparingly

Vague on the details on the purpose to illustrate how a European power of comparable economic might to the United States could have been achieved. I imagine over time that the Hapsburg houses would reunite and that you'd add Germany, Hungary, Bohemia, and whatever remained free of Italy to the mix. And I doubt the Ottomans and its associated vassals in North Africa could resist such a power for long, its stability willing. Delusions of being a new Rome would be freely thrown about by the court of such a state, and I doubt it would cease its encroachment on Muslim lands until it controlled an Empire similar to Rome at its height, damn the cost or consequence.

 

[Emperor RyRy]

Early enough PoD?

Ireland is united in the pre-Roman Era and turns into an autocratic bureaucracy that values effiency above all else. For centuries they develop and build until they conquer Europe and turn it into a Celtic hive mind. They transform nature into a purely artificial machine and become the Borg.